Infrasound generated by the 2016-2017 shallow submarine eruption of Bogoslof volcano, Alaska
John J. Lyons, Alexandra M. Iezzi, David Fee, Hans Schwaiger, Aaron Wech, Matthew M. Haney
2020, Bulletin of Volcanology (82)
The 2016–2017 shallow submarine eruption of Bogoslof volcano produced numerous infrasound signals over 9 months that were recorded on six Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) arrays at ranges of 59 to over 800 km from the volcano. The lack of geophysical monitoring near Bogoslof and the repeated production of volcanic clouds to flight...
Ecosystem-specific growth responses to climate pattern by a temperate freshwater fish
Jonathan J. Spurgeon, Mark A. Pegg, Kevin L. Pope, Lin Xie
2020, Ecological Indicators (112)
Somatic growth patterns among animal populations are maintained through complex processes that vary among ecosystems. Changes in growth patterns may be concomitant with changes in climate; however, understanding how growth will manifest among ecosystems is limited. Information embedded within fish hard-parts...
Habitat affinities and at-sea ranging behaviors among main Hawaiian Island seabirds: Breeding seabird telemetry, 2013–2016
Josh Adams, Jonathan J. Felis, Max Czapanskiy
2020, Report
Recent Hawaiʻi state clean energy policy mandates and federal interest in developing offshore renewable energy resources have prompted unsolicited lease requests for offshore wind energy infrastructure (OWEI) to be located in ocean waters off Hawaiʻi. This study describing at-sea ranging behaviors for five seabirds was intended to provide new information...
Estimating late 19th century hydrology in the Greater Everglades Ecosystem: An integration of paleoecologic data and models
Frank E. Marshall, Christopher E. Bernhardt, G. Lynn Wingard
2020, Frontiers in Environmental Science (8)
Determining hydrologic conditions prior to instrumental records is a challenge for restoration of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. Paleoecologic data provide this information on past conditions and when these data are used to adjust hydrologic models, allow conditions to be hindcast that may not be directly estimated from the paleo-data alone....
Throughfall reduction x fertilization: Deep soil water usage in a clay rich ultisol under loblolly pine in the Southeast USA
Jiaguo Qi, Daniel M. Markewitz, Mary Ann McGuire, Lisa Samuelson, Eric Ward
2020, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change (2)
Forests in the Southeast USA are predicted to experience a moderate decrease in precipitation inputs over this century that may result in soil water deficiency during the growing season. The potential impact of a drier climate on the productivity of managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantations in the Southeast...
SPEAR: The next generation GFDL modeling system for seasonal to multidecadal prediction and projection
Thomas L. Delworth, William F. Cooke, Alistair A. Adcroft, Mitchell Bushuk, Jan-Huey Chen, Krista A. Dunne, Paul Ginoux, Richard Gudgel, Lucas Harris, Matthew J. Harrison, Robert W. Hallberg, Nathaniel Johnson, Sarah B. Kapnick, Shian-Jian Lin, Feiyu Lu, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. Milly, Hiroyuki Murakami, Vaishali Naik, Salvatore Pascale, David Paynter, Anthony Rosati, M. D. Schwarzkopf, Elena Shevliakova, Seth Underwood, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Baoqiang Xiang, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Honghai Zhang, Liping Zhang, Ming Zhao
2020, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (12)
We document the development and simulation characteristics of the next generation modeling system for seasonal to decadal prediction and projection at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). SPEAR (Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research) is built from component models recently developed at GFDL—the AM4 atmosphere model, MOM6 ocean...
Climate change vulnerability assessment for Pacific Lamprey in rivers of the Western United States
Christina J Wang, Howard A Shaller, Kelly C. Coates, Michael C. Hayes, Robert K Rose
2020, Journal of Freshwater Ecology (35) 29-55
Pacific Lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus) are a native anadromous species that, like salmon, historically returned to spawn in large numbers in watersheds along the west coast of the United States (U.S.). Lamprey play a vital role in river ecosystems and are one of the oldest vertebrates that have persisted over time...
Evaluation of survey methods for colonial waterbirds at Chase Lake National Wildlife Refuge, North Dakota
Lawrence D. Igl, Alisa J. Bartos, Robert O. Woodward, Paulette Scherr, Marsha A. Sovada
2020, Open-File Report 2020-1008
Estimating the number of breeding pairs in a mixed-species waterbird colony is difficult because colonial waterbirds are vulnerable to human intrusion and their colonies are often in remote areas with limited access. We investigated methods to estimate the number of nests of waterbirds at a large, mixed-species colony at Chase...
A geospatially resolved wetland vulnerability index: Synthesis of physical drivers
Zafer Defne, Alfredo Aretxabaleta, Neil K. Ganju, Tarandeep S. Kalra, Daniel K. Jones, Kathryn E.L. Smith
2020, PLoS ONE (15)
Assessing wetland vulnerability to chronic and episodic physical drivers is fundamental for establishing restoration priorities. We synthesized multiple data sets from E.B Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, New Jersey, to establish a wetland vulnerability metric that integrates a range of physical processes, regulatory information and physical/biophysical features. The geospatial data are based on aerial imagery,...
Numerical simulation of groundwater availability in central Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i
Delwyn S. Oki, John A. Engott, Kolja Rotzoll
2020, Scientific Investigations Report 2019-5150
Since the 1990s, increased chloride concentrations of water pumped from wells (much of which is used for drinking water) and the effects of withdrawals on groundwater-dependent ecosystems have led to concerns over groundwater availability on the island of Molokaʻi, Hawaiʻi. An improved understanding of the hydrologic effects of proposed groundwater...
Climate relationships with increasing wildfire in the southwestern US from 1984 to 2015
Stephanie Mueller, Andrea E. Thode, Ellis Q. Margolis, Larissa Yocom, Jesse M. Young, Jose M. Iniguez
2020, Forest Ecology and Management (460)
Over the last several decades in forest and woodland ecosystems of the southwestern United States, wildfire size and severity have increased, thereby increasing the vulnerability of these systems to type conversions, invasive species, and other disturbances. A combination of land use history and climate change is widely thought to be...
Upper plate heterogeneity along the Southern Hikurangi Margin, New Zealand
Stuart Henrys, Donna Eberhart-Phillips, Dan Bassett, Rupert Sutherland, David Okaya, Martha Savage, Dominic Evanzia, Tim A. Stern, Hiroshi Sato, Kimihiro Mochizuki, Takaya Iwasaki, Eiji Kurashimo, Anya Seward, Aaron Wech
2020, Geophysical Research Letters (47)
Controlled and natural source seismic data are used to build a 3-D P wave model for southern North Island, New Zealand, where the Pacific Plate subducts beneath the Australian Plate at a rate of ~41 mm/year. Our analysis reveals an abrupt along-strike transition in overthrusting plate structure within Cook...
The community code verification exercise for simulating sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS)
Brittany Erickson, Junle Jiang, Michael Barall, Nadia Lapusta, Eric Dunham, Ruth A. Harris, Lauren Abrahams, Kali Allison, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Sylvain Barbot, Camilla Cattania, Ahmed Elbanna, Yuri Fialko, Benjamin Idini, Jeremy Kozdon, Valere Lambert, Yajing Liu, Yingdi Luo, Xiao Ma, Maricela Best McKay, Paul Segall, Pengsheng Shi, Martijn van den Ende, Mengjie Wei
2020, Seismological Research Letters (91) 874-890
Numerical simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) have made great progress over past decades to address important questions in earthquake physics. However, significant challenges in SEAS modeling remain in resolving multiscale interactions between earthquake nucleation, dynamic rupture, and aseismic slip, and understanding physical factors controlling observables such as seismicity and ground deformation....
Field observations of wind waves in Upper Delaware Bay with living shorelines
Ling Zhu, Q. Chen, Hongqing Wang, William D. Capurso, Lukasz M. Niemoczynski, Kelin Hu, Gregg Snedden
2020, Estuaries and Coasts (43) 739-755
Constructed oyster reefs (CORs) provide shore protections and habitats for fish and shellfish communities via wave energy attenuation. However, the processes and mechanism of CORs on wave attenuation remain unclear, thus limiting the effective assessment of CORs for shoreline protection. This paper presents results of a field investigation on wave...
Simulation modeling of complex climate, wildfire, and vegetation dynamics to address wicked problems in land management
Rachel A. Loehman, Robert E. Keane, Lisa M. Holsinger
2020, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change (3)
Complex, reciprocal interactions among climate, disturbance, and vegetation dramatically alter spatial landscape patterns and influence ecosystem dynamics. As climate and disturbance regimes shift, historical analogs and past empirical studies may not be entirely appropriate as templates for future management. The need for a better understanding of the potential impacts of climate changes on ecosystems...
Associations between riparian plant morphological guilds and fluvial sediment dynamics along the regulated Colorado River in Grand Canyon
Bradley J. Butterfield, Paul E. Grams, Laura E. Durning, Joseph Hazel, Emily C. Palmquist, Barbara Ralston, Joel B. Sankey
2020, River Research and Applications (36) 410-421
Effects of riparian vegetation on fluvial sediment dynamics depend on morphological traits of the constituent species. Determining the effects of different morphological guilds on sedimentation rates, as influenced by multiple aspects of dam operations, can help identify viable strategies for streamflow and vegetation management to achieve riparian resource goals. Plants...
Impacts of seagrass dynamics on the coupled long-term evolution of barrier-marsh-bay systems
Ian Reeves, Laura Moore, Evan Goldstein, Brad Murray, Joel A. Carr, Matt L. Kirwan
2020, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences (125)
Seagrass provides a wide range of economically and ecologically valuable ecosystem services, with shoreline erosion control often listed as a key service, but can also alter the sediment dynamics and waves within back-barrier bays. Here we incorporate seagrass dynamics into an existing barrier-marsh exploratory model, GEOMBEST++, to examine the coupled...
Potential duration of aftershocks of the 2020 southwestern Puerto Rico earthquake
Nicholas van der Elst, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael
2020, Open-File Report 2020-1009
AbstractAftershocks (earthquakes clustered spatially and chronologically near the occurrence of a causative earthquake) are ongoing in southwestern Puerto Rico after a series of earthquakes, which include a magnitude 6.4 earthquake that occurred near Barrio Indios, Guayanilla, on January 7, 2020, and affected the surrounding area. This report estimates the expected...
Fatty acid-based diet estimates suggest ringed seal remain the main prey of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears despite recent use of onshore food resources
Jennifer Bourque, Todd C. Atwood, George J. Divoky, Connie Stewart, Melissa A. McKinney
2020, Ecology and Evolution (10) 2093-2103
Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) subpopulation have traditionally fed predominantly upon ice‐seals; however, as the proportion of the subpopulation using onshore habitat has recently increased, foraging on land‐based resources, including remains of subsistence‐harvested bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) and colonial nesting seabirds has been observed. Adipose...
A brief introduction to seismic instrumentation: Where does my data come from?
Adam T. Ringler, Patrick Bastien
2020, Seismological Research Letters (91) 1074-1083
Modern seismology has been able to take advantage of several technological advances. These include feedback loops in the seismometer, specialized digitizers with absolute timing, and compression formats for storing data. While all of these advances have helped to improve the field, they can also leave newcomers a bit...
Age distribution of red tree voles in northern spotted owl pellets estimated from molar tooth development
Chad A. Marks-Fife, Eric D. Forsman, Katie M. Dugger
2020, Northwest Science (93) 193-208
We used molar measurements from 136 known-age red tree voles (Arborimus longicaudus) to develop regression models that could estimate tree vole age from skeletonized remains. The best regression included a quadratic structure of the ratio between two measurements, crown height and anterior height, and natural log-transformed age in days. The...
Does the virus cross the road? Viral phylogeographic patterns among bobcat populations reflect a history of urban development
Christopher P. Kozakiewicz, Christopher P. Burridge, W. Chris Funk, Meggan E. Craft, Kevin R. Crooks, Robert N. Fisher, Nicholas M. Fountain-Jones, Megan K. Jennings, Simona J Kraberger, Justin S. Lee, Lisa M. Lyren, Seth P.D. Riley, Laurel E K Serieys, Sue VandeWoude, Scott Carver
2020, Evolutionary Applications (13) 1806-1817
Urban development has major impacts on connectivity among wildlife populations and is thus likely an important factor shaping pathogen transmission in wildlife. However, most investigations of wildlife diseases in urban areas focus on prevalence and infection risk rather than potential effects of urbanization on transmission itself. Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV)...
Climate and human water use diminish wetland networks supporting continental waterbird migration
J.P. Donnelly, Sammy L. King, N.L. Silverman, D. P. Collins, E.M. Carrera-Gonzalez, A. Lafon-Terrazas, J.N. Moore
2020, Global Change Biology (26) 2042-2059
Migrating waterbirds moving between upper and lower latitudinal breeding and wintering grounds rely on a limited network of endorheic lakes and wetlands when crossing arid continental interiors. Recent drying of global endorheic water stores raises concerns over deteriorating migratory pathways, yet few studies have considered these effects at the scale...
Forecasting future beach width- A case study along the Florida Atlantic coast
Joseph W. Long, Rachel E. Henderson, David M. Thompson
2020, Open-File Report 2019-1150
Historical cross-shore positions of the shoreline and dune base were used as inputs for a Kalman filter algorithm to forecast the positions of these features in the year 2028. The beach width was also computed as the cross-shore distance between the forecasted 2028 shoreline and dune-base positions. While it does...
Estimating rupture dimensions of three major earthquakes in Sichuan, China, for early warning and rapid loss estimates
Jiawei Li, Maren Bose, Max Wyss, David J. Wald, Alexandra Hutchinson, John F. Clinton, Zhongliang Wu, Changsheng Jiang, Shiyong Zhou
2020, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (110) 920-936
Large earthquakes like in Wenchuan in 2008, MW 7.9, Sichuan, China, provide opportunity for earthquake early warning (EEW) as many heavily shaken areas are far (~50 km) from the epicenter and warning time could be long enough (≥ 5 s) to take effective preventative action. On the other hand, earthquakes...
