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We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To...

An evaluation of the gas production potential of Sunlight Peak gas hydrate accumulation in the eastern portion of the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) of Alaska North Slope (ANS) is conducted using numerical simulations, as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gas hydrate Life Cycle Assessment program. A field...

Sea ice dominates marine ecosystems in the Arctic, and recent reductions in sea ice may alter food webs throughout the region. Sea ice loss may also stress Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens), which feed on benthic macroinvertebrates in the Bering and Chukchi seas. However, no studies have examined the effects...

The lampricides 3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM) and 2′,5-dichloro-4′-nitrosalicylanilide (niclosamide) are directly added to many tributaries of the Great Lakes that harbor the invasive parasitic sea lamprey. Despite their long history of use, the fate of lampricides is not well understood. This study evaluates the rate and pathway of direct photodegradation of both...

We have determined source mechanisms for nine high-quality microseismic events induced during hydraulic fracturing of the Montney Shale in Canada. Seismic data were recorded using a dense regularly spaced grid of sensors at the surface. The design and geometry of the survey are such that the recorded P-wave amplitudes essentially...

Distributional shifts of biota to higher latitudes and elevations are presumably influenced by species-specific physiological tolerances related to warming temperatures. However, it is establishment rather than dispersal that may be limiting colonizations in these cold frontier areas. In freshwater ecosystems, perennial groundwater springs provide critical winter thermal refugia in these...

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in central North America consists of millions of depressional wetlands that each have considerable potential to emit methane (CH4). Changes in temperature and hydrology in the PPR from climate change may affect methane fluxes from these wetlands. To assess the potential effects of changes in...

Mixing models are a commonly used method for hydrograph separation, but can be hindered by the subjective choice of the end-member tracer concentrations. This work tests a new variant of mixing model that uses high-frequency measures of two tracers and streamflow to separate total streamflow into water from slowflow and...

Land cover changes (e.g., forest to grassland) affect albedo, and changes in albedo can influence radiative forcing (warming, cooling). We empirically tested albedo response to land cover change for 130 locations across the continental United States using high resolution (30 m-×-30 m) land cover change data and moderate resolution (~ 500 m-×-500 m) albedo data....

Landsat 8, originally known as the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM), is a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) partnership that continues the legacy of continuous moderate resolution observations started in 1972. The conception of LDCM to the reality of Landsat 8 followed an arduous path extending...

Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relationships between land use and water, nutrient,...

A number of studies have reported the presence of wheat septoria leaf blotch (Septoria tritici; SLB) disease in Ethiopia. However, the environmental factors associated with SLB disease, and areas under risk of SLB disease, have not been studied. Here, we tested the hypothesis that environmental variables can adequately explain observed...

Karst areas present unique hydrologic and hydrogeological characteristics that are often challenging to investigate. These characteristics are largely dependent on the extent of development of solution conduits within the underlying bedrock, and the resulting integration of surface and subsurface drainage components into a karst aquifer system. The investigation and characterization of karst aquifers typically require...

The closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963 resulted in drastic changes to water clarity, temperature, and flow of the Colorado River in Glen, Marble, and Grand Canyons. The Colorado River is now much clearer, water temperature is less variable throughout the year, and the river is much colder in...

The upper Santa Cruz Basin is an important groundwater basin containing the regional aquifer for the city of Nogales, Arizona. This report provides data and interpretations of data aimed at better understanding the bedrock morphology and structure of the upper Santa Cruz Basin study area which encompasses the Rio Rico...

Groundwater-level measurements in monitoring wells or piezometers are the most common, and often the only, hydrologic measurements made at artificial recharge facilities. Measurements of gravity change over time provide an additional source of information about changes in groundwater storage, infiltration, and for model calibration. We demonstrate that for an artificial...

In flood-pulsed ecosystems, hydrology and landscape structure mediate transfers of energy up the food chain by expanding and contracting in area, enabling spatial expansion and growth of fish populations during rising water levels, and subsequent concentration during the drying phase. Connectivity of flooded areas is dynamic as waters rise and...

The analysis of ecological data has changed in two important ways over the last 15 years. The development and easy availability of Bayesian computational methods has allowed and encouraged the fitting of complex hierarchical models. At the same time, there has been increasing emphasis on acknowledging and accounting for model uncertainty....

Biological monitoring programmes are increasingly relying upon large volumes of citizen-science data to improve the scope and spatial coverage of information, challenging the scientific community to develop design and model-based approaches to improve inference.Recent statistical models in ecology have been developed to accommodate false-negative errors, although current...

Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature dynamics play a prominent role in Asian summer monsoon variability. Two interactive climate modes of the Indo-Pacific—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole mode—modulate the amount of precipitation over India, in addition to precipitation over Africa, Indonesia, and Australia. However, this modulation is...

Plate tectonics drives mountain building in general, but the space-time pattern and style of deformation is influenced by how climate, geodynamics, and basement structure modify the orogenic wedge. Growth of the Subandean thrust belt, which lies at the boundary between the arid, high-elevation Central Andean Plateau and its humid, low-elevation...

Transport of excess nutrients and total suspended solids (TSS) such as sediment by freshwater systems has led to degradation of aquatic ecosystems around the world. Nutrient and TSS loads from Midwestern states to the Mississippi River are a major contributor to the Gulf of Mexico Hypoxic Zone, an area of...

This report draws on previous syntheses and basic research studies of sedimentary exhalative (sedex) deposits to arrive at the defining criteria, both descriptive and genetic, for sedex-type deposits. Studies of the tectonic, sedimentary, and fluid evolution of modern and ancient sedimentary basins have also been used to select defining criteria....

With growing climate change concerns and energy constraints, there is an increasing need for renewable energy sources within the United States and globally. Looking forward, offshore wind-energy infrastructure (OWEI) has the potential to produce a significant proportion of the power needed to reach our Nation’s renewable energy goal. Offshore...

Behavior of coastal systems on time scales ranging from single storm events to years and decades is controlled by both small-scale sediment transport processes and large-scale geologic, oceanographic, and morphologic processes. Improved understanding of coastal behavior at multiple time scales is required for refining models that predict potential erosion hazards...