Predicting the resilience and recovery of aquatic systems: a framework for model evolution within environmental observatories
Matthew R. Hipsey, David P. Hamilton, Paul C. Hanson, Cayelan C. Carey, Janaine Z Coletti, Jordan S. Read, Bas W Ibelings, Fiona J Valensini, Justin D Brookes
2015, Water Resources Research (51) 7023-7043
Maintaining the health of aquatic systems is an essential component of sustainable catchmentmanagement, however, degradation of water quality and aquatic habitat continues to challenge scientistsand policy-makers. To support management and restoration efforts aquatic system models are requiredthat are able to capture the often complex trajectories that these systems display in...
Landscape-scale distribution and density of raptor populations wintering in anthropogenic-dominated desert landscapes
Adam E. Duerr, Tricia A. Miller, Kerri L Cornell Duerr, Michael J. Lanzone, Amy Fesnock-Parker, Todd E. Katzner
2015, Biodiversity and Conservation (24) 2365-2381
Anthropogenic development has great potential to affect fragile desert environments. Large-scale development of renewable energy infrastructure is planned for many desert ecosystems. Development plans should account for anthropogenic effects to distributions and abundance of rare or sensitive wildlife; however, baseline data on abundance and distribution of such wildlife are often...
Trends in pesticide concentrations and use for major rivers of the United States
Karen R. Ryberg, Robert J. Gilliom
2015, Science of the Total Environment (538) 431-444
Trends in pesticide concentrations in 38 major rivers of the United States were evaluated in relation to use trends for 11 commonly occurring pesticide compounds. Pesticides monitored in water were analyzed for trends in concentration in three overlapping periods, 1992–2001, 1997–2006, and 2001–2010 to facilitate comparisons among sites with...
Stock-specific advection of larval walleye (Sander vitreus) in western Lake Erie: Implications for larval growth, mixing, and stock discrimination
Michael E. Fraker, Eric J. Anderson, Cassandra J. May, Kuan-Yu Chen, Jeremiah J. Davis, Kristen M. DeVanna, Mark R. DuFour, Elizabeth A. Marschall, Christine M. Mayer, Jeffery G. Miner, Kevin L. Pangle, Jeremy J. Pritt, Edward F. Roseman, Jeffrey T. Tyson, Yingming Zhao, Stuart A Ludsin
2015, Journal of Great Lakes Research (41) 830-845
Physical processes can generate spatiotemporal heterogeneity in habitat quality for fish and also influence the overlap of pre-recruit individuals (e.g., larvae) with high-quality habitat through hydrodynamic advection. In turn, individuals from different stocks that are produced in different spawning locations or at different times may experience dissimilar habitat conditions, which...
Estimating the short-term recovery potential of little brown bats in the eastern United States in the face of White-nose syndrome
Robin E. Russell, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Richard A. Erickson, Jennifer A. Szymanski, Karl Tinsley
2015, Ecological Modelling (314) 111-117
White-nose syndrome (WNS) was first detected in North American bats in New York in 2006. Since that time WNS has spread throughout the northeastern United States, southeastern Canada, and southwest across Pennsylvania and as far west as Missouri. Suspect WNS cases have been identified in Minnesota and Iowa, and the...
Wintering Bald Eagle count trends in the conterminous United States, 1986–2010
Wade Eakle, Laura S. Bond, Mark R. Fuller, Richard A Fischer, Karen Steenhof
2015, Journal of Raptor Research (49) 259-268
We analyzed counts from the annual Midwinter Bald Eagle Survey to examine state, regional, and national trends in counts of wintering Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) within the conterminous 48 United States from 1986 to 2010. Using hierarchical mixed model methods, we report trends in counts...
Amphibole reaction rims as a record of pre-eruptive magmatic heating: An experimental approach
S. H. De Angelis, J. Larsen, Michelle L. Coombs, A. Dunn, Leslie A. Hayden
2015, Earth and Planetary Science Letters (426) 235-245
Magmatic minerals record the pre-eruptive timescales of magma ascent and mixing in crustal reservoirs and conduits. Investigations of the mineral records of magmatic processes are fundamental to our understanding of what controls eruption style, as ascent rates and magma mixing processes are well known to control and/or trigger potentially hazardous...
The climate space of fire regimes in north-western North America
Ellen Whitman, Enric Batllori, Marc-Andre Parisien, Carol Miller, Jonathan D. Coop, Meg A. Krawchuk, Geneva W. Chong, Sandra L. Haire
2015, Journal of Biogeography (42) 1736-1749
Aim. Studies of fire activity along environmental gradients have been undertaken, but the results of such studies have yet to be integrated with fire-regime analysis. We characterize fire-regime components along climate gradients and a gradient of human influence. Location. We focus on a climatically diverse region of north-western North America...
Modelling multi-hazard hurricane damages on an urbanized coast with a Bayesian Network approach
H.C.W. van Verseveld, A. R. Van Dongeren, Nathaniel G. Plant, W.S. Jager, C. den Heijer
2015, Coastal Engineering (103) 1-14
Hurricane flood impacts to residential buildings in coastal zones are caused by a number of hazards, such as inundation, overflow currents, erosion, and wave attack. However, traditional hurricane damage models typically make use of stage-damage functions, where the stage is related to flooding depth only. Moreover, these models are...
Development of twelve microsatellite loci in the red tree corals Primnoa resedaeformis and Primnoa pacifica
Cheryl L. Morrison, Marcus J. Springmann, Kelsey Shroades, Robert P. Stone
2015, Conservation Genetics Resources (7) 763-765
A suite of tetra-, penta-, and hexa-nucleotide microsatellite loci were developed from Roche 454 pyrosequencing data for the cold-water octocorals Primnoa resedaeformis and P. pacifica. Twelve of 98 primer sets tested consistently amplified in 30 P. resedaeformis samples from Baltimore...
Mid-Cretaceous oblique rifting of West Antarctica: Emplacement and rapid cooling of the Fosdick Mountains migmatite-cored gneiss dome
Rory McFadden, Christian Teyssier, Christine Siddoway, Michael A. Cosca, C. Mark Fanning
2015, LITHOS (232) 306-318
In Marie Byrd Land, West Antarctica, the Fosdick Mountains migmatite-cored gneiss dome was exhumed from mid- to lower middle crustal depths during the incipient stage of the West Antarctic Rift system in the mid-Cretaceous. Prior to and during exhumation, major crustal melting and deformation included transfer and emplacement of...
Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations
Brian D. Gerber, William L. Kendall, Mevin Hooten, James A. Dubovsky, Roderick C. Drewien
2015, Journal of Animal Ecology (84) 1299-1310
Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model...
Catchment-wide survival of wild- and hatchery-reared Atlantic salmon smolts in a changing system
Daniel S. Stich, Michael M. Bailey, Christopher M. Holbrook, Michael T. Kinnison, Joseph D. Zydlewski
2015, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (72) 1352-1365
We developed a hierarchical multistate model to estimate survival of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts in the Penobscot River, USA, over a decade during which two mainstem dams were removed from the catchment. We investigated effects of (i) environmental factors, (ii) rearing history, and (iii) management actions, including dam removal,...
A food web modeling analysis of a Midwestern, USA eutrophic lake dominated by non-native Common Carp and Zebra Mussels
Michael E. Colvin, Clay Pierce, Timothy W. Stewart
2015, Ecological Modelling (312) 26-40
Food web modeling is recognized as fundamental to understanding the complexities of aquatic systems. Ecopath is the most common mass-balance model used to represent food webs and quantify trophic interactions among groups. We constructed annual Ecopath models for four consecutive years during the first half-decade of a zebra mussel invasion...
Heat flux from magmatic hydrothermal systems related to availability of fluid recharge
M. C. Harvey, J.V. Rowland, G. Chiodini, C.F. Rissmann, S. Bloomberg, P.A. Hernandez, A. Mazot, F. Viveiros, Cynthia A. Werner
2015, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research (302) 225-236
Magmatic hydrothermal systems are of increasing interest as a renewable energy source. Surface heat flux indicates system resource potential, and can be inferred from soil CO2 flux measurements and fumarole gas chemistry. Here we compile and reanalyze results from previous CO2 flux surveys worldwide to compare heat flux from a...
Monitoring landscape-level distribution and migration Phenology of Raptors using a volunteer camera-trap network
David S. Jachowski, Todd E. Katzner, Jane L. Rodrigue, W. Mark Ford
2015, Wildlife Society Bulletin (39) 553-563
Conservation of animal migratory movements is among the most important issues in wildlife management. To address this need for landscape-scale monitoring of raptor populations, we developed a novel, baited photographic observation network termed the “Appalachian Eagle Monitoring Program” (AEMP). During winter months of 2008–2012, we partnered with professional and citizen...
Model averaging and muddled multimodel inferences
Brian S. Cade
2015, Ecology (96) 2370-7382
Three flawed practices associated with model averaging coefficients for predictor variables in regression models commonly occur when making multimodel inferences in analyses of ecological data. Model-averaged regression coefficients based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) weights have been recommended for addressing model uncertainty but they are not valid, interpretable estimates of...
Linking resource selection and mortality modeling for population estimation of mountain lions in Montana
Hugh S. Robinson, Toni K. Ruth, Justin A. Gude, David Choate, Rich DeSimone, Mark Hebblewhite, Marc R. Matchett, Michael S. Mitchell, Kerry Murphy, Jim Williams
2015, Ecological Modelling (312) 11-25
To be most effective, the scale of wildlife management practices should match the range of a particular species’ movements. For this reason, combined with our inability to rigorously or regularly census mountain lion populations, several authors have suggested that mountain lions be managed in a source-sink or metapopulation framework. We...
Camera traps and mark-resight models: The value of ancillary data for evaluating assumptions
Arielle W. Parsons, Theodore R. Simons, Kenneth H. Pollock, Michael K. Stoskopf, Jessica J. Stocking, Allan F. O’Connell
2015, Journal of Wildlife Management (79) 1163-1172
Unbiased estimators of abundance and density are fundamental to the study of animal ecology and critical for making sound management decisions. Capture–recapture models are generally considered the most robust approach for estimating these parameters but rely on a number of assumptions that are often violated but rarely validated. Mark-resight models,...
Groundwater availability in the United States: the value of quantitative regional assessments
Kevin F. Dennehy, Thomas E. Reilly, William L. Cunningham
2015, Hydrogeology Journal (23) 1629-1632
The sustainability of water resources is under continued threat from the challenges associated with a growing population, competing demands, and a changing climate. Freshwater scarcity has become a fact in many areas. Much of the United States surface-water supplies are fully apportioned for use; thus, in some areas the only...
Shifts in the eruptive styles at Stromboli in 2010–2014 revealed by ground-based InSAR data
Federico Di Traglia, Maurizio Battaglia, Teresa Nolesini, Daniela Lagomarsino, Nicola Casaglia
2015, Scientific Reports
Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GBInSAR) is an efficient technique for capturing short, subtle episodes of conduit pressurization in open vent volcanoes like Stromboli (Italy), because it can detect very shallow magma storage, which is difficult to identify using other methods. This technique allows the user to choose the optimal...
Spring plant phenology and false springs in the conterminous US during the 21st century
Andrew J. Allstadt, Stephen J. Vavrus, Patricia J. Heglund, Anna M. Pidgeon, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Volker C. Radeloff
2015, Geophysical Research Letters (10)
The onset of spring plant growth has shifted earlier in the year over the past several decades due to rising global temperatures. Earlier spring onset may cause phenological mismatches between the availability of plant resources and dependent animals, and potentially lead to more false springs, when subsequent freezing temperatures damage...
Wetland occupancy of pond-breeding amphibians in Yosemite National Park, USA
Gary M. Fellers, Patrick M. Kleeman, David A.W. Miller
2015, Journal of North American Herpetology (2015) 22-33
We estimated wetland occupancy and population trends for three species of pond-breeding anurans in Yosemite National Park from 2007-2011. We used a double survey technique in which two observers independently surveyed each site on the same day. Double surveys allowed us to calculate detectability for the three most common anurans...
Rising methane emissions from northern wetlands associated with sea ice decline
Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Wenxin Zhang, Xudong Zhu, Jacobus van Huissteden, Daniel J. Hayes, Qianlai Zhuang, Torben R. Christensen, A. David McGuire
2015, Geophysical Research Letters (42) 7214-7222
The Arctic is rapidly transitioning toward a seasonal sea ice-free state, perhaps one of the most apparent examples of climate change in the world. This dramatic change has numerous consequences, including a large increase in air temperatures, which in turn may affect terrestrial methane emissions. Nonetheless, terrestrial and marine environments...
Factors affecting the thermal environment of Agassiz’s Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) cover sites in the Central Mojave Desert during periods of temperature extremes
Jeremy S. Mack, Kristin H. Berry, David M. Miller, Andrea S. Carlson
2015, Journal of Herpetology (49) 405-414
Agassiz's Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) spend >95% of their lives underground in cover sites that serve as thermal buffers from temperatures, which can fluctuate >40°C on a daily and seasonal basis. We monitored temperatures at 30 active tortoise cover sites within the Soda Mountains, San Bernardino County, California, from February...
