Assessment of nutrient load estimation approaches for small urban streams in Durham, North Carolina
Stephen L. Harden, Celeste A. Journey, Alexandra B. Etheridge
2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5053
This cooperative study between the City of Durham Public Works Department, Stormwater Division and U.S. Geological Survey evaluated whether alternate monitoring strategies that incorporated samples collected across an increased range of streamflows would improve nutrient load estimates for Ellerbe and Sandy Creeks, two small, highly urbanized streams in the City...
A probabilistic approach to training machine learning models using noisy data
Ayman H. Alzraiee, Richard G. Niswonger
2024, Environmental Modelling & Software (179)
Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly popular in environmental and hydrologic modeling, but they typically contain uncertainties resulting from noisy data (erroneous or outlier data). This paper presents a novel probabilistic approach that combines ML and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation to (1) detect and underweight likely noisy data, (2) develop an approach capable of...
Understanding key mineral supply chain dynamics using economics-informed material flow analysis and Bayesian optimization
John W. Ryter, Karan Bhuwalka, Michelena O’Rourke, Luca Montanelli, David Cohen-Tanugi, Richard Roth, Elsa Olivetti
2024, Journal of Industrial Ecology (28) 709-726
The low-carbon energy transition requires significant increases in production for many mineral commodities. Understanding demand, technological requirements, and prices associated with this production increase requires understanding the supply chain dynamics of many minerals simultaneously, and via a consistent framework. A generalized economics-informed material flow method, global materials modeling using Bayesian...
Controls on stable methane isotope signatures in northern peatlands and potential shifts in signatures under permafrost thaw scenarios
McKenzie A. Kuhn, Ruth K. Varner, Carmody K. McCalley, Clarice R. Perryman, Mika Aurela, Sophia A. Burke, Jeffrey Chanton, Patrick Crill, Jessica DelGreco, Jia Deng, Liam Heffernan, Christina Herrick, Suzanne B. Hodgkins, Cheristy P. Jones, Sari Juutinen, Evan S. Kane, Louis J. Lamit, Tuula Larmola, Erik Lilleskov, David Olefeldt, Michael W. Palace, Virginia I. Rich, Christopher Schulze, Joanne H. Shorter, Franklin Sullivan, Oliver Sonnentag, Merritt R. Turetsky, Mark Waldrop
2024, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences (129)
Northern peatlands are a globally significant source of methane (CH4), and emissions are projected to increase due to warming and permafrost loss. Understanding the microbial mechanisms behind patterns in CH4 production in these systems will be key to predicting annual emissions changes, with stable carbon isotopes (δ13C-CH4) being a powerful...
Climate change vulnerability of Arctic char across Scandinavia
Clint C. Muhlfeld, Timothy Cline, Anders Finstad, Dag O. Hessen, Sam Perrin, Jens Thaulow, Diane Whited, Leif Asbjorn Vollestad
2024, Global Change Biology (30)
Climate change is anticipated to cause species to shift their ranges upward and poleward, yet space for tracking suitable habitat conditions may be limited for range-restricted species at the highest elevations and latitudes of the globe. Consequently, range-restricted species inhabiting Arctic freshwater ecosystems, where...
Four decades of data indicate that planted mangroves stored up to 75% of the carbon stocks found in intact mature stands
Carine F. Bourgeois, Richard A. MacKenzie, Sahadev Sharma, Rupesh K. Bhomia, Nels G. Johnson, Andre S. Rovai, Thomas A. Worthington, Ken Krauss, Kangkuso Analuddin, Jacob J. Bukoski, Jose Alan Castillo, Angie Elwin, Leah Glass, Tim C. Jennerjahn, Mwita M. Mangora, Cyril Marchand, Michael Osland, Ismael A. Ratefinjanahary, Raghab Ray, Severino G. Salmo, Sigit D. Sasmito, Rempei Suwa, Pham Hong Tinh, Carl C. Trettin
2024, Science Advances (10)
Mangroves’ ability to store carbon (C) has long been recognized, but little is known about whether planted mangroves can store C as efficiently as naturally established (i.e., intact) stands and in which time frame. Through Bayesian logistic models compiled from 40 years of data and built from 684 planted mangrove...
Rangewide occupancy of a flagship species, the Coastal California Gnatcatcher (Polioptila californica californica) in southern California: Habitat associations and recovery from wildfire
Barbara E. Kus, Kristine L. Preston, Alexandra Houston
2024, PLoS ONE (19)
The Coastal California Gnatcatcher (Polioptila californica californica), a federally threatened species, is a flagship species for regional conservation planning in southern California (USA). An inhabitant of coastal sage scrub vegetation, the gnatcatcher has declined in response to habitat loss and fragmentation, exacerbated by catastrophic wildfires. We...
Isotopic evaluation of the National Water Model reveals missing agricultural irrigation contributions to streamflow across the western United States
Annie L. Putman, Patrick C. Longley, Morgan C. McDonnell, James E. Reddy, Michelle P. Katoski, Olivia L. Miller, J. Renee Brooks
2024, Hydrology and Earth Systems Science (28) 2895-2918
The National Water Model (NWM) provides critical analyses and projections of streamflow that support water management decisions. However, the NWM performs poorly in lower-elevation rivers of the western United States (US). The accuracy of the NWM depends on the fidelity of the model inputs and the representation and calibration of...
A fine-scale examination of parturition timing in temperate ungulates
Matthew T. Turnley, Tabitha A. Hughes, Randy T. Larsen, Kent R. Hersey, Matthew S. Broadway, M. Colter Chitwood, W. Sue Fairbanks, Robert Charles Lonsinger, Brock R. McMillan
2024, Functional Ecology (14)
Parturition timing has long been a topic of interest in ungulate research. However, few studies have examined parturition timing at fine scale (e.g., <1 day). Predator activity and environmental conditions can vary considerably with diel timing, which may result in selective pressure for parturition to occur...
An integrated analysis for estimation of survival, growth, and movement of unmarked juvenile anadromous fish
Patti J. Wohner, Adam Duarte, James T. Peterson
2024, Ecological Modelling (495)
Managers invest substantial resources to promote recovery of declining anadromous fish stocks. Recovery strategies are manifold and often include management actions intended to stimulate somatic growth, increase in-river survival, and motivate juvenile outmigration during favorable environmental conditions. Evaluating the efficacy of these management actions is difficult, however, because monitoring data...
A comparative analysis of OpenET for evaluating evapotranspiration in California almond orchards
Kyle Knipper, Martha Anderson, Nicolas Bambach, Forrest Melton, Zac Ellis, Yun Yang, J. M. Volk, Andrew J. McElrone, William P. Kustas, Matthew Roby, Will Carrara, Sebastian Castro, Ayse Kilic, Joshua B. Fisher, Anderson Ruhoff, Gabriel B. Senay, Charles Morton, Sebastian Saa, Richard G. Allen
2024, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (355)
The almond industry in California faces water management challenges that are being exacerbated by droughts, climate change, and groundwater sustainability legislation. The Tree-crop Remote sensing of Evapotranspiration eXperiment (T-REX) aims to explore opportunities to improve precision irrigation management for woody perennial cropping systems. Almond orchards in the California Central Valley...
Invertebrate trophic structure on marine ferromanganese and phosphorite hardgrounds
Olivia S. Pereira, Devin Vlach, Angelica Bradley, Jennifer Gonzalez, Kira Mizell, Lisa A. Levin
2024, Limnology and Oceanography (69) 1636-1650
The Southern California Borderland hosts a variety of geologic and oceanographic features that allow for diverse habitats to occur in a restricted region with a strong oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) and hard substrates. These include ferromanganese (FeMn) crusts and phosphorites targeted for deep-seabed mining...
An evaluation of tradeoffs in restoring ephemeral vs. perennial habitats to conserve animal populations
James T. Peterson, Adam Duarte
2024, Frontiers in Conservation Science (5)
Introduction: Habitat loss and degradation pose significant threats to global fish and wildlife populations, prompting substantial investments in habitat creation and restoration efforts. Not all habitats provide equal benefits, leading to challenges in prioritizing restoration actions. For example, juvenile anadromous salmonids require high quality rearing aquatic habitats to achieve the physiological...
Spawning run estimates and phenology for an extremely small population of Atlantic Sturgeon in the Marshyhope Creek–Nanticoke River system, Chesapeake Bay
Nicholas Coleman, Dewayne Fox, Ashlee Horne, Nathan J. Hostetter, John Madsen, Michael O’Brien, Ian Park, Chuck Stence, David Secor
2024, Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management, and Ecosystem Science (16)
ObjectiveOnce thought to be extirpated from the Chesapeake Bay, fall spawning runs of Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus have been rediscovered in the Marshyhope Creek (MC)–Nanticoke River (NR) system of Maryland, United States. High recapture rates in past telemetry surveys suggested a small population in the two connected tributaries. This...
Population density and zooplankton biomass influence anadromous juvenile river herring growth in freshwater lakes
Matthew T. Devine, Steven Bittner, Allison H. Roy, Benjamin I. Gahagan, Michael P. Armstrong, Adrian Jordaan
2024, Environmental Biology of Fishes (107) 755-770
Anadromous river herring populations, collectively alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) and blueback herring (Alosa aestivalis), have experienced a multi-century decline in abundance and distribution. These declines have been attributed in part to anthropogenic threats in freshwater ecosystems (e.g., habitat fragmentation, overharvest, water pollution, watershed development). An understanding of variability in juvenile productivity...
Accounting for missing ticks: Use (or lack thereof) of hierarchical models in tick ecology studies
Alexej P.K. Siren, Juliana Berube, Laurence A. Clarfeld, Cheryl F. Sullivan, Benjamin Simpson, Tammy L. Wilson
2024, Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases (15)
Ixodid (hard) ticks play important ecosystem roles and have significant impacts on animal and human health via tick-borne diseases and physiological stress from parasitism. Tick occurrence, abundance, activity, and key life-history traits are highly influenced by host availability, weather, microclimate, and landscape features. As such, changes in the environment can...
Water-quality trends in the Kansas River, Kansas, since enactment of the Clean Water Act, 1972–2020
Thomas J. Williams, Brian J. Klager, Tom C. Stiles
2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5050
The Clean Water Act was passed by Congress in 1972 to regulate pollution within the waters of the United States. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE), the Kansas Water Office, the Nature Conservancy, the City of Lawrence, the City of...
Synoptic analysis and WRF-Chem model simulation of dust events in the southwestern United States
Saroj Dhital, Nicholas P. Webb, Adrian Chappell, Michael L. Kaplan, Travis W. Nauman, Gayle Loren Tyree, Michael C. Duniway, Brandon L. Edwards, Sandra L. LeGrand, Theodore W. Letcher, S. McKenzie Skiles, Patrick Naple, Nathaniel W. Chaney, Jiaxuan Cai
2024, JGR Atmospheres (129)
Dust transported from rangelands of the Southwestern United States (US) to mountain snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin during spring (March-May) forces earlier and faster snowmelt, which creates problems for water resources and agriculture. To better understand the drivers of dust events, we investigated large-scale meteorology responsible for organizing...
The 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: A retrospective analysis
Susan E. Hough, Robert Graves, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Clara Yoon, James Luke Blair, Scott Haefner, David J. Wald, Vince Quitoriano
2024, The Seismic Record (4) 151-160
The 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake was a watershed event, with far-reaching societal and scientific impacts. The earthquake, which occurred in the early days of both broadband seismic networks and the Internet, spurred advances in seismic monitoring, real-time systems, and development of data products. Motivated by the...
The early Earth as an analogue for exoplanetary biogeochemistry
Eva Stüeken, Stephanie Olson, Elisha Kelly Moore, Bradford Foley
2024, Reviews in Mineralogy and Geochemistry (90) 515-558
Planet Earth has evolved over the past 4.5 billion years from an entirely anoxic planet with possibly a different tectonic regime to the oxygenated world with horizontal plate tectonics that we know today. For most of this time, Earth has been inhabited by a purely microbial biosphere albeit with seemingly...
Adaptive fine-tuning for transferring a U-net hydrography extraction model using K-means
Larry Stanislawski, Ethan J. Shavers, Neal J. Pastick, Philip T. Thiem, Shaowen Wang, Nattapon Jaroenchai, Zhe Jiang, Barry J. Kronenfeld, Barbara P. Buttenfield, Adam Camerer
2024, Conference Paper
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) coordinates the collection of hydrographic features derived from remotely sensed interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IfSAR) elevation and intensity data in Alaska. Hydrographic features are cartographic representations of surface water features such as stream, rivers, lakes, ponds, canals, etc. Collection and validation procedures involve complex...
Framework for implementing damping scaling factors in U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models
Andrew James Makdisi, Dallin Smith, Sanaz Rezaeian, Peter M. Powers, Kyle B. Withers
2024, Conference Paper
Traditionally, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has focused on calculating ground motion hazard curves for elastic, 5%-damped pseudo spectral accelerations, Sa(T,5%), which are used as the basis for engineering design parameters and targets for ground motion selection and modification. However, structures and geotechnical systems can exhibit a wide range of...
Effects of stochastically-simulated near-fault ground motions on soil liquefaction
Andrew James Makdisi, Mayssa Dabaghi, Lianne Brito Silveira, Sanaz Rezaeian, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Henry Mason
2024, Conference Paper
The scarcity of historically recorded near-fault ground motions poses a challenge to systematically understanding the influence of near-fault effects on various types of seismic demands for engineering purposes. In particular, the current state of knowledge of the influence of ground-shaking intensity on soil liquefaction and its consequences does not specifically...
2024 Crustal Deformation Modeling Workshop report
Brad T. Aagaard, Matthew Knepley, Eric Lindsey, Kathryn Z. Materna, Hilary R Martens, Charles Williams
2024, Conference Paper
The 2024 Crustal Deformation Modeling Workshop was held June 10–14 at the Colorado School of Mines. The workshop included two days of tutorials on using PyLith for crustal deformation modeling, followed by three days of science talks and discussions. The workshop focused on four primary themes: ● Constraining long-term fault...
Impacts of convective storms on runoff, erosion, and carbon export in a continuous permafrost landscape
Marisa Repasch, Josie Arcuri, Irina Overeem, Suzanne P. Anderson, Robert G. Anderson, Joshua C. Koch
2024, Conference Paper
Permafrost holds more than twice the amount of carbon currently in the atmosphere, but this large carbon reservoir is vulnerable to thaw and erosion under a rapidly changing Arctic climate. Convective storms are becoming increasingly common during Arctic summers and can amplify runoff and erosion. These extreme events, in concert...
