Bayes factors and multimodel inference
W.A. Link, R. J. Barker
David L. Thomson, Evan G. Cooch, Michael J. Conroy, editor(s)
2009, Book chapter, Modeling demographic processes in marked populations
Multimodel inference has two main themes: model selection, and model averaging. Model averaging is a means of making inference conditional on a model set, rather than on a selected model, allowing formal recognition of the uncertainty associated with model choice. The Bayesian paradigm provides a natural framework for...
A traditional and a less-invasive robust design: choices in optimizing effort allocation for seabird population studies
S. J. Converse, W. L. Kendall, P.F. Doherty Jr., M.B. Naughton, J.E. Hines
David L. Thomson, Evan G. Cooch, Michael J. Conroy, editor(s)
2009, Book chapter, Modeling demographic processes in marked populations
For many animal populations, one or more life stages are not accessible to sampling, and therefore an unobservable state is created. For colonially-breeding populations, this unobservable state could represent the subset of adult breeders that have foregone breeding in a given year. This situation applies to many seabird populations, notably...
Inferences about landbird abundance from count data: recent advances and future directions
J.D. Nichols, L. Thomas, P.B. Conn
David L. Thomson, Evan G. Cooch, Michael J. Conroy, editor(s)
2009, Book chapter, Modeling demographic processes in marked populations
We summarize results of a November 2006 workshop dealing with recent research on the estimation of landbird abundance from count data. Our conceptual framework includes a decomposition of the probability of detecting a bird potentially exposed to sampling efforts into four separate probabilities. Primary inference methods are described...
A generalized mixed effects model of abundance for mark-resight data when sampling is without replacement
B.T. McClintock, Gary C. White, K.P. Burnham, M.A. Pryde
David L. Thomson, Evan G. Cooch, Michael J. Conroy, editor(s)
2009, Book chapter, Modeling demographic processes in marked populations
In recent years, the mark-resight method for estimating abundance when the number of marked individuals is known has become increasingly popular. By using field-readable bands that may be resighted from a distance, these techniques can be applied to many species, and are particularly useful for relatively small, closed populations....
Inference about species richness and community structure using species-specific occupancy models in the National Swiss Breeding Bird Survey MUB
M. Kery, J. Andrew Royle
David L. Thomson, Evan G. Cooch, Michael J. Conroy, editor(s)
2009, Book chapter, Modeling demographic processes in marked populations
Species richness is the most widely used biodiversity measure. Virtually always, it cannot be observed but needs to be estimated because some species may be present but remain undetected. This fact is commonly ignored in ecology and management, although it will bias estimates of species richness and related...
One size does not fit all: Adapting mark-recapture and occupancy models for state uncertainty
W. L. Kendall
David L. Thomson, Evan G. Cooch, Michael J. Conroy, editor(s)
2009, Book chapter, Modeling demographic processes in marked populations
Multistate capture?recapture models continue to be employed with greater frequency to test hypotheses about metapopulation dynamics and life history, and more recently disease dynamics. In recent years efforts have begun to adjust these models for cases where there is uncertainty about an animal?s state upon capture. These efforts...
Exploring extensions to multi-state models with multiple unobservable states
L.L. Bailey, W. L. Kendall, D.R. Church
David L. Thomson, Evan G. Cooch, Michael J. Conroy, editor(s)
2009, Book chapter, Modeling demographic processes in marked populations
Many biological systems include a portion of the target population that is unobservable during certain life history stages. Transition to and from an unobservable state may be of primary interest in many ecological studies and such movements are easily incorporated into multi-state models. Several authors have investigated properties...
Estimating latent time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction in continuous time from capture-recapture data
T. Ergon, Nigel G. Yoccoz, J.D. Nichols
David L. Thomson, Evan G. Cooch, Michael J. Conroy, editor(s)
2009, Book chapter, Modeling demographic processes in marked populations
In many species, age or time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction may vary substantially within and among populations. We present a capture-mark-recapture model to estimate the latent individual trait distribution of time of maturation (or other irreversible transitions) as well as survival differences associated with the two...
Filling a void: abundance estimation of North American populations of arctic geese using hunter recoveries
R.T. Alisauskas, K.L. Drake, J.D. Nichols
David L. Thomson, Evan G. Cooch, Michael J. Conroy, editor(s)
2009, Book chapter, Modeling demographic processes in marked populations
We consider use of recoveries of marked birds harvested by hunters, in conjunction with continental harvest estimates, for drawing inferences about continental abundance of a select number of goose species. We review assumptions of this method, a version of the Lincoln?Petersen approach, and consider its utility as a tool...
Kilauea slow slip events: Identification, source inversions, and relation to seismicity
Emily K. Montgomery-Brown, P. Segall, Asta Miklius
2009, Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth (114)
Several slow slip events beneath the south flank of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, have been inferred from transient displacements in daily GPS positions. To search for smaller events that may be close to the noise level in the GPS time series, we compare displacement fields on Kilauea's south flank with displacement...
Analysis of Effects of 2003 and Full-Allocation Withdrawals in Critical Area 1, East-Central New Jersey
Frederick J. Spitz
2009, Open-File Report 2009-1104
Critical Area 1 in east-central New Jersey was mandated in the early 1980s to address large drawdowns caused by increases in groundwater withdrawals. The aquifers involved include the Englishtown aquifer system, Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer, and the Upper and Middle Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers. Groundwater levels recovered as a result of mandated cutbacks...
Klamath River Water Quality Data from Link River Dam to Keno Dam, Oregon, 2008
Annett B. Sullivan, Michael L. Deas, Jessica Asbill, Julie D. Kirshtein, Kenna D. Butler, Jennifer Vaughn
2009, Open-File Report 2009-1105
This report documents sampling and analytical methods and presents field data from a second year of an ongoing study on the Klamath River from Link River Dam to Keno Dam in south central Oregon; this dataset will form the basis of a hydrodynamic and water quality model. Water quality was...
Acid neutralizing capacity and leachate results for igneous rocks, with associated carbon contents of derived soils, Animas River AML site, Silverton, Colorado
Douglas B. Yager, Mark R. Stanton, LaDonna M. Choate, Alison Burchell Alison
2009, Conference Paper, 26th annual meetings of the American Society of Mining and Reclamation and 11th Billings Land Reclamation Symposium 2009 : Billings, Montana, USA, 30 May-5 June 2009
Mine planning efforts have historically overlooked the possible acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) that local igneous rocks can provide to help neutralize acidmine drainage. As a result, limestone has been traditionally hauled to mine sites for use in neutralizing acid drainage. Local igneous rocks, when used as part of mine life-cycle...
The Longview/Lakeview barite deposits, southern National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska (NPRA) — Potential-field models and preliminary size estimates
Jeanine M. Schmidt, Jonathan M. G. Glen, Robert L. Morin
2009, Professional Paper 1760-C
Longview and Lakeview are two of the larger stratiform barite deposits hosted in Mississippian Akmalik Chert in the Cutaway Basin area (Howard Pass C-3 quadrangle) of the southern National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska (NPRA). Geologic studies for the South NPRA Integrated Activity Plan and Environmental Impact Statement process included an attempt...
Spatially referenced statistical assessment of dissolved-solids load sources and transport in streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin
Terry A. Kenney, Steven J. Gerner, Susan G. Buto, Lawrence E. Spangler
2009, Scientific Investigations Report 2009-5007
The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) discharges more than 6 million tons of dissolved solids annually, about 40 to 45 percent of which are attributed to agricultural activities. The U.S. Department of the Interior estimates economic damages related to salinity in excess of $330 million annually in the Colorado River...
Relation between Streamflow of Swiftcurrent Creek, Montana, and the Geometry of Passage for Bull Trout (Salvelinus confluentus)
Gregor T. Auble, Christopher L. Holmquist-Johnson, Jim T. Mogen, Lynn R. Kaeding, Zachary H. Bowen
2009, Scientific Investigations Report 2009-5100
Operation of Sherburne Dam in northcentral Montana has typically reduced winter streamflow in Swiftcurrent Creek downstream of the dam and resulted in passage limitations for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). We defined an empirical relation between discharge in Swiftcurrent Creek between Sherburne Dam and the downstream confluence with Boulder Creek and...
Water Quality in the High Plains Aquifer, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming, 1999-2004
Jason J. Gurdak, Peter B. McMahon, Kevin Dennehy, Sharon L. Qi
2009, Circular 1337
This report contains the major findings of a 1999-2004 assessment of water quality in the High Plains aquifer. It is one of a series of reports by the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program that present major findings for principal and other aquifers and major river basins across the Nation. In...
Is there a basis for preferring characteristic earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter distribution in probabilistic earthquake forecasting?
Thomas E. Parsons, Eric L. Geist
2009, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (99) 2012-2019
The idea that faults rupture in repeated, characteristic earthquakes is central to most probabilistic earthquake forecasts. The concept is elegant in its simplicity, and if the same event has repeated itself multiple times in the past, we might anticipate the next. In practice however, assembling a fault-segmented characteristic earthquake rupture...
Geophysical log analysis of selected test holes and wells in the High Plains Aquifer, Central Platte River Basin, Nebraska
J. Alton Anderson, Roger H. Morin, James C. Cannia, John Williams
2009, Scientific Investigations Report 2009-5033
The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Central Platte Natural Resources District is investigating the hydrostratigraphic framework of the High Plains aquifer in the Central Platte River basin. As part of this investigation, a comprehensive set of geophysical logs was collected from six test holes at three sites and...
Occurrence and distribution of iron, manganese, and selected trace elements in ground water in the glacial aquifer system of the northern United States
George E. Groschen, Terri Arnold, William S. Morrow, Kelly L. Warner
2009, Scientific Investigations Report 2009-5006
Dissolved trace elements, including iron and manganese, are often an important factor in use of ground water for drinking-water supplies in the glacial aquifer system of the United States. The glacial aquifer system underlies most of New England, extends through the Midwest, and underlies portions of the Pacific Northwest and...
Development and Implementation of a Transport Method for the Transport and Reaction Simulation Engine (TaRSE) based on the Godunov-Mixed Finite Element Method
Andrew I. James, James W. Jawitz, Rafael Munoz-Carpena
2009, Scientific Investigations Report 2009-5034
A model to simulate transport of materials in surface water and ground water has been developed to numerically approximate solutions to the advection-dispersion equation. This model, known as the Transport and Reaction Simulation Engine (TaRSE), uses an algorithm that incorporates a time-splitting technique where the advective part of the equation...
Evaluation of Ground-Motion Modeling Techniques for Use in Global ShakeMap - A Critique of Instrumental Ground-Motion Prediction Equations, Peak Ground Motion to Macroseismic Intensity Conversions, and Macroseismic Intensity Predictions in Different Tectonic Settings
Trevor I. Allen, David J. Wald
2009, Open-File Report 2009-1047
Regional differences in ground-motion attenuation have long been thought to add uncertainty in the prediction of ground motion. However, a growing body of evidence suggests that regional differences in ground-motion attenuation may not be as significant as previously thought and that the key differences between regions may be a consequence...
Sedimentation survey of Lago Guerrero, Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, March 2006
Luis R. Soler-Lopez
2009, Scientific Investigations Map 2990
Lago Guerrero is located in Aguadilla, northwestern Puerto Rico (fig. 1). The reservoir has a surface area of about 32,000 square meters and is excavated in Aymamon Limestone of Miocene age. This bedrock consists of chalk interbed-ded with solution-riddled hard limestone (Monroe, 1969). The reservoir was constructed in the 1930s...
Bathymetry of Lake William C. Bowen and Municipal Reservoir #1, Spartanburg County, South Carolina, 2008
D.D. Nagle, B. G. Campbell, M.A. Lowery
2009, Scientific Investigations Map 3076
The increasing use and importance of lakes for water supply to communities enhance the need for an accurate methodology to determine lake bathymetry and storage capacity. A global positioning receiver and a fathometer were used to collect position data and water depth in February 2008 at Lake William C. Bowen...
Regional Stratigraphy and Petroleum Systems of the Illinois Basin, U.S.A.
Christopher S. Swezey
2009, Scientific Investigations Map 3068
The publication combines data on Paleozoic and Mesozoic stratigraphy and petroleum geology of the Illinois basin, U.S.A., in order to facilitate visualizing the stratigraphy on a regional scale and visualizing stratigraphic relations within the basin. Data are presented in eight schematic chronostratigraphic sections arranged approximately from north to south, with...
