Seasonally dynamic nutrient modeling quantifies storage lags and time-varying reactivity across large river basins
Noah M. Schmadel, Judson Harvey, Gregory E. Schwarz
2021, Environmental Research Letters (16)
Nutrients that have gradually accumulated in soils, groundwaters, and river sediments in the United States over the past century can remobilize and increase current downstream loading, obscuring effects of conservation practices aimed at protecting water resources. Drivers of storage accumulation and release of nutrients are poorly understood at the spatial...
Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change
Joan Dudney, Claire Willing, Adrian Das, Andrew M. Latimer, Jonathan C B Nesmith, John J. Battles
2021, Nature Communications (12)
Range shifts of infectious plant disease are expected under climate change. As plant diseases move, emergent abiotic-biotic interactions are predicted to modify their distributions, leading to unexpected changes in disease risk. Evidence of these complex range shifts due to climate change, however, remains largely speculative. Here, we combine a long-term...
The Holocene dynamics of Ryder Glacier and ice tongue in north Greenland
Matt O’Regan, Thomas M. Cronin, Brendan Reilly, Aage K. Olsen Alstrup, Laura Gemery, Anna Golub, Larry A. Mayer, Mathieu Morlighem, Matthias Moros, Ole L. Munk, Johan Nilsson, Christof Pearce, Henrieka Detlef, Christian Stranne, Flor Vermassen, Gabriel West, Martin Jakobsson
2021, The Cryosphere (15) 4073-4097
The northern sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet is considered to be particularly susceptible to ice mass loss arising from increased glacier discharge in the coming decades. However, the past extent and dynamics of outlet glaciers in this region, and hence their vulnerability to climate change, are poorly documented. In...
Thyroid disruption and oxidative stress in American kestrels following embryonic exposure to the alternative flame retardants, EHTBB and TBPH
CHristopher Goodchild, Natalie Karouna-Renier, Paula F. P. Henry, Robert J. Letcher, Sandra L. Schultz, Catherine M. Maddox, Thomas Bean, Lisa E. Peters, Vince P. Palace, Kimberly J. Fernie
2021, Environment International (157)
Brominated flame retardant chemicals, such as 2-ethylhexyl-2,3,4,5-tetrabromobenzoate (EHTBB) (CAS #: 183658–27-7) and bis(2-ethylhexyl)-2,3,4,5-tetrabromophthalate (TBPH) (CAS #: 26040–51-7), have been detected in avian tissues and eggs from remote regions. Exposure to EHTBB and TBPH has been shown to cause oxidative stress and altered thyroid function...
Drivers of extreme water levels in a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary – A case study of the San Francisco Bay
Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Rohin Saleh, Babak Tehranirad, Liv M. Herdman, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Mick Van der Wegen
2021, Coastal Engineering (170)
Reliable and long-term hindcast data of water levels are essential in quantifying return period and values of extreme water levels. In order to inform design decisions on a local flood control district level, process-based numerical modeling has proven an essential tool...
Random variable
Ricardo A. Olea
2021, Book chapter, Encyclopedia of Mathematical Geosciences
A random variable is a function that assigns a value in a sample space to an element of an arbitrary set (James 1992; Pawlowsky-Glahn et al. 2015). It is a model for a random experiment: the arbitrary set is an abstraction of the experimental conditions, the values taken...
A ground motion model for GNSS peak ground displacement
Dara Elyse Goldberg, Diego Melgar, Gavin P. Hayes, Valerie J. Sahakian, Brendan W. Crowell
2021, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (111) 2393-2407
We present an updated ground‐motion model (GMM) for Mw">MwMw 6–9 earthquakes using Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) observations of the peak ground displacement (PGD). Earthquake GMMs inform a range of Earth science and...
Is there tree senescence? The fecundity evidence
Tong Qiu, Marie-Claire Aavena Acuna, Robert A. Andrus, Davide Ascoli, Yves Bergeron, Roberta Berretti, Michal Bogdziewicz, Thomas Boivin, Raul Bonal, Thomas Caignard, Rafael Calama, Julio Camarero, Connie Clark, Benoit Courbaud, Sylvain Delzon, Sergio Donoso Calderon, William Farfan-Rios, Catherine A. Gehring, Gregory S. Gilbert, Cathryn H. Greenberg, Qinfeng Guo, Janneke Hille Ris Lambers, Hoshi Hoshizaki, Ines Ibanez, Valentin Journé, Christopher L. Kilner, Richard Kobe, WD Koenig, Georges Kunstler, Jalene M. LaMontagne, Mateusz Ledwon, James A. Lutz, Renzo Motta, Jonathan A. Myers, Thomas A. Nagel, Kyotaro Noguchi, Chase Nunez, Ian S. Pearse, Carlos Perez-Izquierdo, Lukasz Piechnik, John Poulson, Renata Poulton-Kamakura, Miranda D. Redmond, Chantal D. Reid, Kyle C. Rodman, C. Lane Scher, Harald Schmidt Van Marle, Barbara Seget, Shubhi Sharma, Miles Silman, Jennifer J. Swenson, Margaret Swift, Maria Uriarte, Giorgio Vacchiano, Renato Valencia, Andrew Vander Yacht, Thomas T. Veblen, Amy V. Whipple, Thomas G. Whitham, Andreas Wion, Joseph Wright, Kai Zhu, Jess K. Zimmerman, Magdalena Zywiec, James S. Clark
2021, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (118)
Despite its importance for forest regeneration, food webs, and human economies, changes in tree fecundity with tree size and age remain largely unknown. The allometric increase with tree diameter assumed in ecological models would substantially overestimate seed contributions from large trees if fecundity eventually declines with...
Linking demographic rates to local environmental conditions: Empirical data to support climate adaptation strategies for Eleutherodactylus frogs
A.C. Rivera-Burgos, Jaime A. Collazo, Adam Terando, Krishna Pacifici
2021, Global Ecology and Conservation (28)
Conducting managed species translocations and establishing climate change refugia are adaptation strategies to cope with projected consequences of global warming, but successful implementation requires on-the-ground validation of demographic responses to transient climate conditions. Here we estimated the effect of nine...
Identifying the ecological and management implications of mangrove migration in the northern Gulf of Mexico
Michael Osland
2021, Report
Climate change is transforming ecosystems and affecting ecosystem goods and services. Along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme freeze events greatly influences whether coastal wetlands are dominated by freeze-sensitive woody plants (mangrove forests) or freeze-tolerant grass-like plants (salt...
Disruption of the Francisella noatunensis orientalis pdpA gene results in virulence attenuation and protection in zebrafish
John D. Hansen, Karina Ray, Po-Jui Chen, Susan Yun, Diane G. Elliott, Carla M. Conway, Michael Culcutt, Maureen K. Purcell, Timothy J Welch, John Patrick Bellah, Ellie Maureen Dalsky, Justin Blaine Greer, Esteban Soto
2021, Infection and Immunity (89)
Several Francisella spp. including F. noatunensis are regarded as important emerging pathogens of wild and farmed fish. However, very few studies have investigated the virulence factors that allow these bacterial species to be pathogenic in fish. The Francisella Pathogenicity Island (FPI) is a well-described, gene-dense region encoding major virulence factors for the...
Amphibian population responses to mitigation: Relative importance of wetland age and design
Emily Bea Oja, Leah S Swartz, Erin L. Muths, Blake R. Hossack
2021, Ecological Indicators (131)
Wetland creation is a common practice to mitigate for the loss of natural wetlands. However, there is still uncertainty about how effectively created wetlands replace habitat provided by natural wetlands. This uncertainty is due in part because post-construction monitoring of biological...
Physics-guided recurrent graph model for predicting flow and temperature in river networks
Xiaowei Jia, Jacob Aaron Zwart, Jeffrey Michael Sadler, Alison P. Appling, Samantha K. Oliver, Steven L. Markstrom, Jared Willard, Shaoming Xu, Michael Steinbach, Jordan Read, Vipin Kumar
2021, Conference Paper, Proceedings of the 2021 SIAM International Conference on Data Mining (SDM)
This paper proposes a physics-guided machine learning approach that combines machine learning models and physics-based models to improve the prediction of water flow and temperature in river networks. We first build a recurrent graph network model to capture the interactions among multiple segments in the river network....
Wetland selection by female Ring-Necked Ducks (Aythya collaris) in the Southern Atlantic Flyway
Tori D. Mezebish, Richard B. Chandler, Glenn H. Olsen, Michele Goodman, Frank C. Rohwer, Nicholas J. Meng
2021, Wetlands (41)
On the wintering grounds, wetland selection by waterfowl is influenced by spatiotemporal resource distribution. The ring-necked duck (Aythya collaris) winters in the southeastern United States where a disproportionate amount of Atlantic Flyway ring-necked duck harvest occurs. We quantified female ring-necked duck selection for wetland characteristics during and after the 2017-2018...
Structured decision making and optimal bird monitoring in the northern Gulf of Mexico
Auriel Fournier, R. Randy Wilson, James E. Lyons, Jeffrey S. Gleason, Evan M. Adams, Laurel M. Barnhill, Janell M. Brush, Robert J. Cooper, Stephen J. DeMaso, Melanie J.L. Driscoll, Mitchell J. Eaton, Peter C. Frederick, Michael G. Just, Michael A. Seymour, John M. Tirpak, Mark S. Woodrey
2021, Open-File Report 2020-1122
The avian conservation community struggles to design and implement large scale, long-term coordinated bird monitoring programs within the northern Gulf of Mexico due to the complexity of the conservation enterprise in the region; this complexity arises from the diverse stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions, complex ecological processes, myriad habitats, and over 500...
Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part II: Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea
Kathleen McKee, Cassandra Marie Smith, Kevin Reath, Eveanjelene Snee, Sean Maher, Robin S. Matoza, Simon A Carn, Diana Roman, Larry G. Mastin, Kyle R. Anderson, David Damby, Ima Itikarai, Kila Mulina, Steve Saunders, Jelle D. Assink, Rodrigo de Negri Levia, Anna Perttu
2021, Journal of Geophysical Research (420)
Retrospective eruption characterization is valuable for advancing our understanding of volcanic systems and evaluating our observational capabilities, especially with remote technologies (defined here as a space-borne system or non-local, ground-based instrumentation which include regional and remote infrasound sensors). In June 2019, the open-system Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea, produced a VEI 4...
Cohesive sediment modeling in a shallow estuary: Model and environmental implications of sediment parameter variation
Rachel Allen, Jessica R. Lacy, Andrew W. Stevens
2021, Journal of Geophysical Research--Oceans (126)
Numerical models of sediment transport in estuarine systems rely on parameter values that are often poorly constrained and can vary on timescales relevant to model processes. The selection of parameter values can affect the accuracy of model predictions, while environmental variation of these parameters can impact the...
Historical floods and geomorphic change in the lower Little Colorado River during the late 19th to early 21st centuries
Joel A. Unema, David J. Topping, Keith Kohl, Michael J. Pillow, Joshua J. Caster
2021, Scientific Investigations Report 2021-5049
The Little Colorado River is a major tributary to the Colorado River with a confluence at the boundary between Marble and Grand Canyons within Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona. The bedrock gorge of the lower Little Colorado River is home to the largest known population of Gila cypha (humpback chub),...
Oyster model inventory: Identifying critical data and modeling approaches to support restoration of oyster reefs in coastal U.S. Gulf of Mexico waters
Megan K. La Peyre, Danielle A. Marshall, Shaye E. Sable
2021, Open-File Report 2021-1063
Executive SummaryAlong the coast of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) plays important ecological and economic roles. Commercial landings from this region account for more than 50 percent of all U.S. landings; these oyster reefs also provide varied ecosystem services, including nursery habitat for many fish...
Strandlines from large floods on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona
Thomas A. Sabol, Ronald E. Griffiths, David J. Topping, Erich R. Mueller, Robert B. Tusso, Joseph E. Hazel Jr.
2021, Scientific Investigations Report 2021-5048
Strandlines of peak-stage indicators (such as driftwood logs, woody debris, and trash) provide valuable data for understanding the maximum stage and extent of inundation during floods. A series of seven strandlines have been preserved along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona, USA. A survey and analysis of...
Urban heat island and its regional impacts using remotely sensed thermal data – A review of recent developments and methodology
Hua Shi, George Z. Xian, Roger F. Auch, Kevin Gallo, Qiang Zhou
2021, Land (10)
Many novel research algorithms have been developed to analyze urban heat island (UHI) and UHI regional impacts (UHIRIP) with remotely sensed thermal data tables. We present a comprehensive review of some important aspects of UHI and UHIRIP studies that use remotely sensed thermal data, including concepts, datasets,...
Adaptive two-stage inverse sampling design to estimate density, abundance, and occupancy of rare and clustered populations
Mohammad Salehi, David R. Smith
2021, PLoS ONE (16)
Sampling rare and clustered populations is challenging because of the effort required to find rare units. Heuristically, a practitioner would prefer to discontinue sampling in areas where rare units of interest are apparently extremely sparse or absent. We take advantage of the characteristics of inverse sampling...
Response to “Connectivity and pore accessibility in models of soil carbon cycling”
Bonnie G. Waring, Benjamin N. Sulman, Sasha C. Reed, A. Peyton Smith, Colin Averill, Courtney Ann Creamer, Daniela F. Cusack, Steven J. Hall, Julie D. Jastrow, Andrea Jilling, Kenneth M. Kemner, Markus Kleber, Xiao-Jun Allen Liu, Jennifer Pett-Ridge, Marjorie S. Schulz
2021, Global Change Biology (27) e15-e16
Here we respond to Baveye and colleagues' recent critique of our PROMISE model, describing how this new framework significantly advances our understanding of soil spatial heterogeneity and its influence on organic matter transformations....
An integrated population model for southern sea otters
M. Tim Tinker, Lilian P. Carswell, Joseph A. Tomoleoni, Brian B. Hatfield, Michael D. Harris, Melissa A. Miller, Megan E. Moriarty, Christine K. Johnson, Colleen Young, Laird A. Henkel, Michelle M. Staedler, A. Keith Miles, Julie L. Yee
2021, Open-File Report 2021-1076
Southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) have recovered slowly from their near extinction a century ago, and their continued recovery has been challenged by multiple natural and anthropogenic factors. Development of an integrated population model (IPM) for southern sea otters has been identified as a management priority, to help in...
Multiple coping strategies maintain stability of a small mammal population in a resource-restricted environment
Anne Y Polyakov, William D Tietje, Arjun Srivathsa, Virginie Rolland, James E. Hines, Madan K. Oli
2021, Ecology and Evolution (11) 12529-12541
In semi-arid environments, aperiodic rainfall pulses determine plant production and resource availability for higher trophic levels, creating strong bottom-up regulation. The influence of climatic factors on population vital rates often shapes the dynamics of small mammal populations in such resource-restricted environments. Using a 21-year biannual capture–recapture...
