Characterization of factors affecting groundwater levels in and near the former Lake Traverse Indian Reservation, South Dakota, water years 1956–2017
Kristen J. Valseth, Daniel G. Driscoll
2021, Scientific Investigations Report 2020-5151
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Sisseton Wahpeton Oyate, completed a study to characterize water-level fluctuations in observation wells relative to driving factors that affect water levels in and near the historical 1867 boundary of the Lake Traverse Indian Reservation. The study investigated concerns regarding potential effects...
Prototyping a methodology for long-term (1680-2100) historical-to-future landscape modeling for the conterminous United States
Jordan Dornbierer, Steve Wika, Charles Robison, Gregory Rouze, Terry L. Sohl
2021, Land (10)
Land system change has been identified as one of four major Earth system processes where change has passed a destabilizing threshold. A historical record of landscape change is required to understand the impacts change has had on human and natural systems, while scenarios of future landscape change are required to...
Incorporating climate change in a harvest risk assessment for polar bears Ursus maritimus in Southern Hudson Bay
Eric V. Regehr, Markus Dyck, Samuel A. Iverson, David S. Lee, Nicholas J Lunn, Joseph M Northrup, Marie-Claude Richer, Guillaume Szor, Michael C. Runge
2021, Biological Conservation (258)
Arctic marine mammals are harvested by Indigenous people for subsistence and are socially and culturally important. For ice-dependent species like the polar bear Ursus maritimus, management and conservation require understanding interactions between harvest and sea-ice loss due to climate change. We developed a demographic...
The 2008-2010 subsidence of Dallol volcano on the 2 spreading Erta Ale ridge: InSAR observations and source models
Maurizio Battaglia, Carolina Paglia, Stefano Meuti
2021, Remote Sensing (13)
In this work, we study the subsidence of Dallol, an explosive crater and hydrothermal area along the spreading Erta Ale ridge of Afar (Ethiopia). No volcanic products exist at the surface. However, a diking episode in 2004, accompanied by dike-induced faulting, indicates that Dallol is an active...
American crocodiles (Crocodylus acutus) as restoration bioindicators in the Florida Everglades
Venetia S. Briggs-Gonzalez, Mathieu Basille, Michael Cherkiss, Frank J. Mazzotti
2021, PLoS ONE (16)
The federally threatened American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) is a flagship species and ecological indicator of hydrologic restoration in the Florida Everglades. We conducted a long-term capture-recapture study on the South Florida population of American crocodiles from 1978 to 2015 to evaluate the effects of restoration efforts...
Forest evapotranspiration dynamics over a fragmented forest landscape under drought in southwestern Amazonia
Izaya Numata, Kul Bikram Khand, Jeppe Kjaersgaard, Mark A. Cochrane, Sonaira S. Silva
2021, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (306)
Ongoing climate change and human conversion of forests to other land uses alter regional evapotranspiration dynamics and, consequently, impact associated hydrological systems in Amazonia. We studied the effects of drought and fragmentation on forest evapotranspiration using the surface energy balance-based model METRIC (Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized...
Dissolved Fe supply to the central Gulf of Alaska is inferred to be derived from Alaskan glacial dust that is not resolved by dust transport models
John Crusius
2021, JGR-Biogeosciences (126)
Re-examination of previously published dissolved iron time-series data from Ocean Station Papa in the central Gulf of Alaska (GoA) reveals 33-70% increases in the dissolved iron inventories occurring between September and February of successive years, implying a source of Fe to this region during autumn or early winter. Because I...
Dynamics of endangered sucker populations in Clear Lake Reservoir, California
David A. Hewitt, Brian S. Hayes, Alta C. Harris, Eric C. Janney, Caylen M. Kelsey, Russell W. Perry, Summer M. Burdick
2021, Open-File Report 2021-1043
Executive SummaryIn collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey began a consistent monitoring program for endangered Lost River suckers (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose suckers (Chasmistes brevirostris) in Clear Lake Reservoir, California, in fall 2004. The program was intended to improve understanding of the Clear Lake Reservoir...
Sediment characteristics of northwestern Wisconsin’s Nemadji River, 1973–2016
Faith A. Fitzpatrick
2021, Open-File Report 2021-1003
In 2015–16, a comparison study of stream sediment collection techniques was done for a U.S. Geological Survey streamgage on the Nemadji River near South Superior, Wisconsin (U.S. Geological Survey station number 04024430) to provide an adjustment factor for comparing suspended-sediment rating curves for two historical periods 1973–86 and 2006–16. During...
Rupture passing probabilities at fault bends and steps, with application to rupture length probabilities for earthquake early warning
Glenn Biasi, Steven G. Wesnousky
2021, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (111) 2235-2247
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can quickly identify the beginning of a significant earthquake rupture, but the first seconds of seismic data have not been found to predict the final rupture length. We present two approaches for estimating probabilities of rupture length given the rupture initiation from an EEW system....
Wave-driven flood-forecasting on reef-lined coasts early warning system (WaveFoRCE)
William Skirving, Curt D. Storlazzi, Emily A Smail
2021, Newsletter, Environment Coastal & Offshore (ECO)
Increasing the resilience of coastal communities while decreasing the risk to them are key to the continued inhabitance and sustainability of these areas. Low-lying coral reef-lined islands are experiencing storm wave-driven flood events that currently strike with little to no warning. These events are occurring more frequently and with increasing...
Aeolian sediments in paleowetland deposits of the Las Vegas Formation
Harland L. Goldstein, Kathleen B. Springer, Jeffrey S. Pigati, Marith C. Reheis, Gary L. Skipp
2021, Quaternary Research (104) 1-13
The Las Vegas Formation (LVF) is a well-characterized sequence of groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits exposed in and around the Las Vegas Valley in southern Nevada. Nearly monolithologic bedrock surrounds the valley, which provides an excellent opportunity to test the hypothesis that GWD deposits include an aeolian component....
Quantifying slopes as a driver of forest to marsh conversion using geospatial techniques: Application to Chesapeake Bay coastal-plain, USA
Grace Damore Molino, Zafer Defne, Alfredo Aretxabaleta, Neil K. Ganju, Joel A. Carr
2021, Frontiers in Environmental Science (9)
Coastal salt marshes, which provide valuable ecosystem services such as flood mitigation and carbon sequestration, are threatened by rising sea level. In response, these ecosystems migrate landward, converting available upland into salt marsh. In the coastal-plain surrounding Chesapeake Bay, United States, conversion of coastal forest to salt marsh...
Monitoring long-term riparian vegetation trends to inform local habitat management in a mountainous environment
Timothy J. Assal, Valerie A. Steen, Todd Caltrider, Travis Cundy, Cheyenne Stewart, Nicholas Manning, Patrick J. Anderson
2021, Ecological Indicators (127)
Riparian ecosystems provide critical habitat for many species, yet assessment of vegetation condition at local scales is difficult to measure when considering large areas over long time periods. We present a framework to map and monitor two deciduous cover types, upland and riparian, occupying...
Recovering individual-level spatial inference from aggregated binary data
Nelson Walker, Trevor J. Hefley, Anne Ballmann, Robin E. Russell, Daniel P. Walsh
2021, Spatial Statistics (44)
Binary regression models are commonly used in disciplines such as epidemiology and ecology to determine how spatial covariates influence individuals. In many studies, binary data are shared in a spatially aggregated form to protect privacy. For example, rather than reporting the location and result for each individual that was tested...
Oxygen isotopes in terrestrial gastropod shells track Quaternary climate change in the American Southwest
Jason A. Rech, Jeffrey S. Pigati, Kathleen B. Springer, Stephanie Bosch, Jeffrey C. Nekola, Yurena Yanes
2021, Quaternary Research (104) 43-53
Recent studies have shown the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of modern terrestrial gastropod shells is determined largely by the δ18O of precipitation. This implies that fossil shells could be used to reconstruct the δ18O of paleo-precipitation as long as the isotopic system, including the hydrologic pathways of...
Moose habitat selection and fitness consequences during two critical winter tick life stages in Vermont, United States
Joshua Blouin, Jacob Debow, Elias Rosenblatt, James E. Hines, Cedric Alexander, Katherina Gieder, Nicholas Fortin, James Murdoch, Therese M. Donovan
2021, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution (9)
The moose (Alces alces) is a charismatic species in decline across much of their southern distribution in North America. In the northeastern United States, much of the reduction has been attributed to winter tick (Dermacentor albipictus) infestations. Winter ticks are fairly immobile throughout all life stages, and therefore...
Spring phenology drives range shifts in a migratory Arctic ungulate with key implications for the future
John P. Severson, Heather E. Johnson, Stephen M. Arthur, William Leacock, Michael J. Suitor
2021, Global Change Biology (27) 4546-4563
Annual variation in phenology can have profound effects on the behavior of animals. As climate change advances spring phenology in ecosystems around the globe, it is becoming increasingly important to understand how animals respond to variation in the timing of seasonal events and how their responses...
Repeating earthquakes during multiple phases of unrest and eruption at Mount Agung, Bali, Indonesia, 2017
John Wellik, Stephanie Prejean, Devy K. Syahbana
2021, Frontiers in Volcanology (9)
In 2017, Mount Agung produced a small (VEI 2) eruption that was preceded by an energetic volcano-tectonic (VT) swarm (>800 earthquakes per day up to M4.9) and two months of declining activity. The period of decreased seismic activity complicated forecasting efforts for scientists monitoring the volcano. We examine...
Modeling of future COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, by vaccination rates and nonpharmaceutical intervention scenarios — United States, April–September 2021
Rebecca K. Borchering, Cecile Viboud, Emily Howerton, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Nicholas G. Reich, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Salerno, Wilbert van Panhuis, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, R. Freddy Obrecht, Laura Asher, Cash Costello, Michael Kelbaugh, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Molly Gallagher, Luke Mullany, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Joseph Lemaitre, Juan Dent, Kyra Grantz, Joshua Kaminsky, Stephen Lauer, Elizabeth Lee, Hannah Meredith, Javier Perez-Saez, Lindsay T. Keegan, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, James Schlitt, Patrick Corbett, Pyrros A. Telionis, Lijing Wang, Akhil S. Peddireddy, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Anil Vullikanti, Madhav Marathe, Jessica Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A Johansson, Katriona Shea, Justin Lessler
2021, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (70) 719-724
What is already known about this topic?Increases in COVID-19 cases in March and early April occurred despite a large-scale vaccination program. Increases coincided with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants and relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).What is added by this report?Data from six models indicate that with high vaccination coverage and...
Effects of elk and bison herbivory on narrowleaf cottonwood
Linda C. Zeigenfuss, Kathryn A. Schoenecker
2021, Western North American Naturalist (81) 97-112
Ungulate browsing influences the structure and composition of woody plant communities, including species composition and biomass production as well as age distribution, recruitment, and mortality. We evaluated effects of elk and bison herbivory on narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia) communities in a semiarid ecosystem in southern Colorado. Cottonwoods in this ecosystem...
Emerging dominance of Paratrochammina simplissima (Cushman and McCulloch) in the northern Gulf of Mexico following hydrologic and geomorphic changes
Alisha M. Ellis, Christopher G. Smith
2021, Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Science (255)
Grand Bay estuary in coastal Mississippi and Alabama (USA) has undergone significant geomorphic changes over the last few centuries as a result of anthropogenic (bridge, road, and hardened shoreline construction) and climatic (extreme storm events) processes, which reduce freshwater input, sediment supply, and degrade barrier islands. To investigate how geomorphic changes may have altered the Grand Bay...
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground motion models in the western US
Peter M. Powers, Sanaz Rezaeian, Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Nico Luco, Oliver S. Boyd, Morgan P. Moschetti, Arthur D. Frankel, Eric M. Thompson
2021, Earthquake Spectra (37) 2315-2341
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is the scientific foundation of seismic design regulations in the United States and is regularly updated to consider the best available science and data. The 2018 update of the conterminous U.S. NSHM includes significant changes to the...
What's left before participatory modeling can fully support real-world environmental planning processes: A case study review
B. Hedelin, S. Gray, S. Woehlke, T. K. BenDor, A. Singer, R. Jordan, M. Zellner, P. Giabbanelli, P. Glynn, K. Jenni, A Jetter, N. Kolgani, B. Laursen, K. M. Leong, L. Schmitt Olabisi, E. Sterling
2021, Environmental Modelling & Software (143)
In environmental participatory modeling (PM), both computer and non-computer-based modeling techniques are used to aid participatory problem description, solution, and decision-making actions in environmental contexts. Although many PM case studies have been published, few efforts have sought to systematically describe and understand dominant PM processes or establish best practices for...
Trophic transfer efficiency in the Lake Superior food web: Assessing the impacts of non-native species
Bryan G. Mathias, Thomas R. Hrabik, Joel C. Hoffman, Owen Gorman, Michael J. Seider, Michael E. Sierszen, Mark R. Vinson, Daniel L. Yule, Peder M. Yurista
2021, Journal of Great Lakes Research (47) 1146-1158
Ecosystem-based management relies on understanding how perturbations influence ecosystem structure and function (e.g., invasive species, exploitation, abiotic changes). However, data on unimpacted systems are scarce; therefore, we often rely on impacted systems to make inferences about ‘natural states.’ Among the Laurentian Great Lakes, Lake Superior provides a unique case study to address non-native...
