Effects of climate change on plague exposure pathways and resulting disease dynamics
Tonie E. Rocke, Robin E. Russell, Michael D. Samuel, Rachel C. Abbott, Julia Poje
2020, Final Report 16 RC01-012
Introduction and Objectives: Sylvatic plague, a zoonotic flea-borne disease, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is relevant to the Department of Defense (DOD), because prairie dogs and other susceptible rodents are present on military installations in several western states. Arthropod-borne diseases, like plague, are thought to be particularly sensitive to...
Good practices for species distribution modeling of deep-sea corals and sponges for resource management: Data collection, analysis, validation, and communication
Arliss J Winship, James T. Thorson, M. Elizabeth Clarke, Heather M. Coleman, Bryan M. Costa, Samuel Georgian, David Gillett, Arnaud Gruss, Mark J. Henderson, Thomas F. Hourigan, David D. Huff, Nissa Kreidler, Jodi L. Pirtle, John V. Olson, Matthew Poti, Christopher N. Rooper, Michael F. Sigler, T. Shay Viehman, Curt E. Whitmire
Santiago Herrera, editor(s)
2020, Frontiers in Marine Science (7) 1-7
Resource managers in the United States and worldwide are tasked with identifying and mitigating trade-offs between human activities in the deep sea (e.g., fishing, energy development, and mining) and their impacts on habitat-forming invertebrates, including deep-sea corals and sponges (DSCS). Related management decisions require information about where DSCS occur and...
Using multiple environmental proxies and hydrodynamic modeling to investigate Late Holocene climate and coastal change within a large Gulf of Mexico estuarine system (Mobile Bay, Alabama, USA)
Christopher G. Smith, Miriam C. Jones, Lisa Osterman, Davina Passeri
2020, Marine Geology (427)
A high degree of uncertainty exists for understanding and predicting coastal estuarine response to changing climate, land-use, and sea-level conditions, leaving geologic records as a best-proxy for constraining potential outcomes. With the majority of the world's population focused in coastal regions, understanding how local systems respond to global, regional, and...
Geometric and material variability influences stress states relevant to coastal permafrost bluff failure
Matthew A. Thomas, Alejandro Mota, Benjamin M. Jones, R. Charles Choens, Jennifer M. Frederick, Diana L. Bull
2020, Frontiers in Earth Science (143) 1-13
Scientific knowledge and engineering tools for predicting coastal erosion are largely confined to temperate climate zones that are dominated by non-cohesive sediments. The pattern of erosion exhibited by the ice-bonded permafrost bluffs in Arctic Alaska, however, is not well explained by these tools. Investigation of the oceanographic, thermal, and mechanical...
Introduction to prediction and the value of information
David R. Smith
2020, Book chapter, Structured decision making: Case studies in natural resource management
Predicting the consequences of alternative actions in terms of the objectives is central to decision making. Modeling in the broadest sense, from simple to complex and based on data or expert judgment, comprises the essential toolkit for making decision-relevant predictions. Gaps in knowledge and the resulting uncertainty can...
Introduction to resource allocation
James E. Lyons
2020, Book chapter, Structured decision making: Case studies in natural resource management
With ongoing habitat loss and degradation, ever-increasing threats to biodiversity, and limited funding for conservation and management, nearly every natural resource manager routinely faces difficult resource allocation problems. Funding and capacity for natural resource management rarely meet the need, and informed resource allocations are increasingly important. These decision problems include...
Aseismic transient slip on the Gofar transform fault, East Pacific Rise
Yajing Liu, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Mark Behn
2020, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (117) 10188-10194
Oceanic transform faults display a unique combination of seismic and aseismic slip behavior, including a large globally averaged seismic deficit, and the local occurrence of repeating magnitude (M) ∼6">∼6∼6 earthquakes with abundant foreshocks and seismic...
Keeping Hawai‘i's forest birds one step ahead of disease in a warming world
Eben H. Paxton, Jim Kraus
2020, Book chapter, Structured decision making- Case studies in natural resource management
Hawai‘i’s high-elevation forests provide a critical refuge from disease for native forest birds. However, global warming is facilitating the encroachment of mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit into increasingly higher elevations of remaining refugia, threatening the viability of the forest birds across the islands. Multiple management actions to address the...
Resource allocation for coastal wetland management: Confronting uncertainty about sea level rise
James E. Lyons, Kevin S. Kalasz, Gregory Breese, Clint W. Boal
2020, Book chapter, Structured decision making: Case studies in natural resource management
Coastal wetlands are rich and diverse ecosystems with a wide variety of birdlife and other natural resources. Decision making for coastal wetland management is difficult given the complex nature of these ecological systems and the frequent need to meet multiple objectives for varied resources. Management challenges in the...
Feeding ecology of age-0 gar at Lake Texoma inferred from analysis of stable isotopes
Richard A. Snow, D.R. Stewart, M. J. Porta, James M. Long
2020, North American Journal of Fisheries Management (40) 638-650
Conservation and restoration of gar (Lepisosteidae) populations in North America are increasingly of interest to fisheries managers. Alligator Gar Atractosteus spatula are being stocked as age-0 fish in efforts to re-establish extirpated populations. However, gars are known to be highly cannibalistic in hatcheries, suggesting that age-0 Alligator Gar...
Ecological status of aquatic communities in selected streams in the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District planning area of Wisconsin, 2004–13
Barbara C. Scudder Eikenberry, Michelle A. Nott, Jana S. Stewart, Daniel J. Sullivan, David A. Alvarez, Amanda H. Bell, Faith A. Fitzpatrick
2020, Scientific Investigations Report 2020-5035
A total of 14 wadable streams in urban or urbanizing watersheds near Milwaukee, Wisconsin, were sampled in 2004, 2007, 2010, and 2013 to assess the ecological status of aquatic communities (biota), including benthic algae and invertebrates, and fish. To assess temporal variation, additional community sampling was also done at a...
Groundwater-quality and select quality-control data from the National Water-Quality Assessment Project, January through December 2016, and previously unpublished data from 2013 to 2015
Terri Arnold, Laura M. Bexfield, MaryLynn Musgrove, Melinda L. Erickson, James A. Kingsbury, James R. Degnan, Anthony J. Tesoriero, Justin T. Kulongoski, Kenneth Belitz
2020, Data Series 1124
Environmental groundwater-quality data were collected from 648 wells as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Project of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Program and are included in this report. Most of the wells (514) were sampled from January through December 2016, and 60 of them were sampled in 2013...
The influence of frequency and duration of seismic ground motion on the size of triggered landslides—A regional view
Randall W. Jibson, Hakan Tanyas
2020, Engineering Geology (273)
Observation, theory, and intuition all suggest that larger earthquakes should trigger larger landslides. Many factors could contribute to this, including depth-dependent shear strength or non-linearity of ground motion in soils and rock, but we hypothesize that the key characteristics of large...
2018 U.S. Geological Survey–California Geological Survey fault-imaging surveys across the Hollywood and Santa Monica Faults, Los Angeles County, California
Rufus D. Catchings, Janis Hernandez, Mark R. Goldman, Joanne H. Chan, Robert R. Sickler, Brian Olson, Coyn J. Criley
2020, Open-File Report 2020-1049
We acquired multiple types of seismic data across the Hollywood Fault in Hollywood, Calif., and the Santa Monica Fault in Beverly Hills, Calif., in May and June 2018. On the basis of our data, we infer near-surface locations of various traces of these faults.From two separate profiles across the Hollywood...
Seasonal movements and tributary-specific fidelity of blue sucker Cycleptus elongatus in a Southern Plains riverscape
J. J. Dyer, Shannon K. Brewer
2020, Journal of Fish Biology (97) 279-292
This study used acoustic telemetry and a multistate Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to determine the seasonal movement patterns of blue sucker Cycleptus elongatus from 2015 to 2017. Several hypotheses were ranked using AICc, and it was determined that the movement patterns of blue suckers in a mainstem reach below a hydropower dam (i.e., tailwater)...
Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species
Janet S. Prevey, Lauren E. Parker, Constance A Harrington
2020, PLoS ONE (15)
Climate change is shifting both the habitat suitability and the timing of critical biological events, such as flowering and fruiting, for plant species across the globe. Here, we ask how both the distribution and phenology of three food-producing shrubs native to northwestern North America might shift as the climate changes....
Harnessing multiple models for outbreak management
Katriona Shea, Michael C. Runge, David Pannell, William J. M. Probert, Shou-Li Li, Michael J. Tildesley, Matthew J. Ferrari
2020, Science (368) 577-579
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered efforts by multiple modeling groups to forecast disease trajectory, assess interventions, and improve understanding of the pathogen. Such models can often differ substantially in their projections and recommendations, reflecting different policy assumptions and objectives, as well as scientific, logistical, and other uncertainty...
Simulation of the probabilistic plume extent for a potential replacement wastewater-infiltration lagoon, and probabilistic contributing areas for supply wells for the Town of Lac du Flambeau, Vilas County, Wisconsin
Paul F. Juckem, Michael N. Fienen
2020, Open-File Report 2020-1032
An existing two-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model of the shallow groundwater-flow system of the Lac du Flambeau Reservation in Vilas County, Wisconsin, originally developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, was used to simulate the potential for wastewater from a proposed relocation of a wastewater lagoon to contaminate the Lac du Flambeau...
Chemical evaluation of water and gases collected from hydrothermal systems located in the central Aleutian arc, August 2015
Cynthia A. Werner, Christoph Kern, Peter J. Kelly
2020, Scientific Investigations Report 2020-5043
Five volcanic-hydrothermal systems in the central Aleutians Islands were sampled for water and gas geochemistry in 2015 to provide baseline data to help predict future volcanic unrest. Some areas had not been sampled in 20–30 years (Makushin volcano, Geyser Bight), and other areas had minimal to no prior sampling (Tana...
Geophysical characterization of the Northwest Geysers geothermal field, California
Jared R. Peacock, Tait E. Earney, Margret T. Mangan, William D. Schermerhorn, Jonathan M.G. Glen, Mark Walters, Craig Hartline
2020, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research (339)
The Clear Lake Volcanic Field in northern California is the youngest and northern-most part of a long-lived volcanic system that has produced recent (~10 ka) eruptions. Adjacent to the Clear Lake Volcanic Field is the worlds largest energy producing geothermal field, The Geysers. The hottest part of The...
The Mars Global Digital Dune Database (MGD3): Composition and stability
Lori K. Fenton, Amber L. Gullikson, Rosalyn Hayward, Heather Charles, Timothy N. Titus
2020, Icarus (330) 189-203
We present an expansion to the Mars Global Digital Dune Database (MGD3) describing 1) bulk dune field composition determined by fitting a mineral spectral library to Thermal Emission Spectra (TES) data, and 2) a morphologic stability index that measures the degree of non-aeolian modification that has eroded and stabilized each...
Isolating anthropogenic wetland loss by concurrently tracking inundation and land cover disturbance across the Mid-Atlantic Region, U.S.
Melanie K. Vanderhoof, Jay R. Christensen, Yen-Ju G. Beal, Ben DeVries, Megan W. Lang, Nora Hwang, Christine Mazzarella, John Jones
2020, Remote Sensing (12)
Global trends in wetland degradation and loss have created an urgency to monitor wetland extent, as well as track the distribution and causes of wetland loss. Satellite imagery can be used to monitor wetlands over time, but few efforts have attempted to distinguish anthropogenic wetland loss from climate-driven variability in...
Simulation of discharge, water-surface elevations, and water temperatures for the St. Louis River estuary, Minnesota-Wisconsin, 2016–17
Erik A. Smith, Richard L. Kiesling, Earl J. Hayter
2020, Scientific Investigations Report 2020-5028
The St. Louis River estuary is a large freshwater estuary, next to Duluth, Minnesota, that encompasses the headwaters of Lake Superior. The St. Louis River estuary is one of the most complex and compromised near-shore systems in the upper Great Lakes with a long history of environmental contamination caused by...
Drivers and consequences of alternative landscape futures on wildlife distributions in New England, United States
Schuyler B. Pearman-Gillman, Matthew J. Duveneck, James D. Murdoch, Therese M. Donovan
Anouschka R. Hof, editor(s)
2020, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution (8) 1-19
In an era of rapid climate and land transformation, it is increasingly important to understand how future changes impact natural systems. Scenario studies can offer the structure and perspective needed to understand the impacts of change and help inform management and conservation decisions. We implemented a scenario-based approach to assess...
Combining genetic and demographic monitoring better informs conservation of an endangered urban snake
Dustin A. Wood, Jonathan P. Rose, Brian J. Halstead, Ricka E. Stoelting, Karen E Swaim, Amy G. Vandergast
2020, PLoS ONE (15)
Conversion and fragmentation of wildlife habitat often leads to smaller and isolated populations and can reduce a species’ ability to disperse across the landscape. As a consequence, genetic drift can quickly lower genetic variation and increase vulnerability to extirpation. For species of conservation concern, quantification of...