Inferring species interactions through joint mark–recapture analysis
Charles B. Yackulic, Josh Korman, Michael D. Yard, Maria C. Dzul
2018, Ecology (99) 812-821
Introduced species are frequently implicated in declines of native species. In many cases, however, evidence linking introduced species to native declines is weak. Failure to make strong inferences regarding the role of introduced species can hamper attempts to predict population viability and delay effective management responses. For many species, mark–recapture...
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change
A. David McGuire, David M. Lawrence, Charles Koven, Joy S. Clein, Eleanor J. Burke, Guangsheng Chen, Elchin Jafarov, Andrew H. MacDougall, Sergey S. Marchenko, Dmitry J. Nicolsky, Shushi Peng, Annette Rinke, Philippe Ciais, Isabelle Gouttevin, Daniel J. Hayes, Duoying Ji, Gerhard Krinner, John C. Moore, Vladimir Romanovsky, Christina Schadel, Kevin Schaefer, Edward A.G. Schuur, Qianlai Zhuang
2018, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (115) 3882-3887
We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but...
Nonhydrostatic and surfbeat model predictions of extreme wave run-up in fringing reef environments
Christopher H. Lashley, Dano Roelvink, Ap R. van Dongeren, Mark L. Buckley, Ryan J. Lowe
2018, Coastal Engineering (137) 11-27
The accurate prediction of extreme wave run-up is important for effective coastal engineering design and coastal hazard management. While run-up processes on open sandy coasts have been reasonably well-studied, very few studies have focused on understanding and predicting wave run-up at coral reef-fronted coastlines. This paper applies the short-wave resolving,...
Geologic map of the Nepenthes Planum Region, Mars
James A. Skinner, Kenneth L. Tanaka
2018, Scientific Investigations Map 3389
This map product contains a map sheet at 1:1,506,000 scale that shows the geology of the Nepenthes Planum region of Mars, which is located between the cratered highlands that dominate the southern hemisphere and the less-cratered sedimentary plains that dominate the northern hemisphere. The map region contains cone- and mound-shaped landforms...
Combining multiphase groundwater flow and slope stability models to assess stratovolcano flank collapse in the Cascade Range
Jessica L. Ball, Joshua M. Taron, Mark E. Reid, Shaul Hurwitz, Carol A. Finn, Paul A. Bedrosian
2018, Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth (123) 2787-2805
Hydrothermal alteration can create low‐permeability zones, potentially resulting in elevated pore‐fluid pressures, within a volcanic edifice. Strength reduction by rock alteration and high pore‐fluid pressures have been suggested as a mechanism for edifice flank instability. Here we combine numerical models of multiphase heat transport and groundwater...
Long-term population dynamics and conservation risk of migratory bull trout in the upper Columbia River basin
Ryan Kovach, Jonathan Armstrong, David Schmetterling, Robert Al-Chokhachy, Clint C. Muhlfeld
2018, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (75) 1960-1968
We used redd count data from 88 bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) populations in the upper Columbia River basin to quantify local and regional patterns in population dynamics, including adult abundance, long-term trend, and population synchrony. We further used this information to assess conservation risk of metapopulations using eight population dynamic...
Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands
Scott D. Wilson, Daniel R. Schlaepfer, John B. Bradford, William K. Lauenroth, Michael C. Duniway, Sonia A. Hall, Khishigbayar Jamiyansharav, Gensuo Jia, Ariuntsetseg Lkhagva, Seth M. Munson, David A. Pyke, Britta Tietjen
2018, Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences (123) 1072-1085
Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate...
The role of frozen soil in groundwater discharge predictions for warming alpine watersheds
Sarah G. Evans, Shemin Ge, Clifford I. Voss, Noah P. Molotch
2018, Water Resources Research (54) 1599-1615
Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge...
Natural and man-made hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), in groundwater near a mapped plume, Hinkley, California—study progress as of May 2017, and a summative-scale approach to estimate background Cr(VI) concentrations
John A. Izbicki, Krishangi D. Groover
2018, Open-File Report 2018-1045
This report describes (1) work done between January 2015 and May 2017 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), background study and (2) the summative-scale approach to be used to estimate the extent of anthropogenic (man-made) Cr(VI) and background Cr(VI) concentrations near the Pacific Gas and...
Model methodology for estimating pesticide concentration extremes based on sparse monitoring data
Aldo V. Vecchia
2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5159
This report describes a new methodology for using sparse (weekly or less frequent observations) and potentially highly censored pesticide monitoring data to simulate daily pesticide concentrations and associated quantities used for acute and chronic exposure assessments, such as the annual maximum daily concentration. The new methodology is based on a...
Importance of growth rate on mercury and polychlorinated biphenyl bioaccumulation in fish
Jiajia Li, G. Douglas Haffner, Gordon Patterson, David M. Walters, Michael D. Burtnyk, Ken G. Drouillard
2018, Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (37) 1655-1667
To evaluate the effect of fish growth on mercury (Hg) and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) bioaccumulation, a non–steady‐state toxicokinetic model, combined with a Wisconsin bioenergetics model, was developed to simulate Hg and PCB bioaccumulation in bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus). The model was validated by comparing observed with predicted Hg and PCB 180...
Delineation of the hydrogeologic framework of the Big Sioux aquifer near Sioux Falls, South Dakota, using airborne electromagnetic data
Kristen J. Valseth, Gregory C. Delzer, Curtis V. Price
2018, Scientific Investigations Map 3393
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Sioux Falls, South Dakota, began developing a groundwater-flow model of the Big Sioux aquifer in 2014 that will enable the City to make more informed water management decisions, such as delineation of areas of the greatest specific yield, which is...
Annual variation in polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) exposure in tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) eggs and nestlings at Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) study sites
Christine M. Custer, Thomas W. Custer, Paul M. Dummer, Diana R. Goldberg, J. Christian Franson
2018, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment (190) 1-7
Tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) eggs and nestlings were collected from 16 sites across the Great Lakes to quantify normal annual variation in total polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) exposure and to validate the sample size choice in earlier work. A sample size of five eggs or five nestlings per site...
Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change
Kaitlin C. Maguire, Douglas J. Shinneman, Kevin M. Potter, Valerie D. Hipkins
2018, Systematic Biology (67) 965-978
Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at...
Synthesis of tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) data for Beneficial Use Impairment (BUI) assessment at Wisconsin Areas of Concern
Christine M. Custer, Thomas W. Custer, Paul M. Dummer
2018, Open-File Report 2018-1032
Assessment of the “Bird or Animal Deformities or Reproductive Problems” Beneficial Use Impairment (BUI) can be accomplished by (1) comparing tissue concentrations to established background and Lowest Observable Effect Level (LOEL) for reproductive effects, or (2) directly measuring reproductive success at Areas of Concern (AOCs) and statistically comparing those rates...
Nitrogen concentrations and loads for the Connecticut River at Middle Haddam, Connecticut, computed with the use of autosampling and continuous measurements of water quality for water years 2009 to 2014
John R. Mullaney, Joseph W. Martin, Jonathan Morrison
2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5006
The daily and annual loads of nitrate plus nitrite and total nitrogen for the Connecticut River at Middle Haddam, Connecticut, were determined for water years 2009 to 2014. The analysis was done with a combination of methods, which included a predefined rating curve method for nitrate plus nitrite and total...
Hydrologic assessment of the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge
Christine M. Wieben, Mary M. Chepiga
2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5088
The Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge (hereafter Forsythe refuge or the refuge) is situated along the central New Jersey coast and provides a mixture of freshwater and saltwater habitats for numerous bird, wildlife, and plant species. Little data and information were previously available regarding the freshwater dynamics that support...
Hydrogeology of, simulation of groundwater flow in, and potential effects of sea-level rise on the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the vicinity of Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, New Jersey
Alex R. Fiore, Lois M. Voronin, Christine M. Wieben
2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5135
The Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge encompasses more than 47,000 acres of New Jersey coastal habitats, including salt marshes, freshwater wetlands, tidal wetlands, barrier beaches, woodlands, and swamps. The refuge is along the Atlantic Flyway and provides breeding habitat for fish, migratory birds, and other wildlife species. The refuge...
Development of Raman spectroscopy as a thermal maturity proxy in unconventional resource assessment
Grant A. Myers, Kelsey Kehoe, Paul C. Hackley
2018, Conference Paper, Proceedings of the Unconventional Resources Technology Conference
The objective of this study was to correlate shale hydrous pyrolysis with thermal maturity measurements based on solid bitumen reflectance (BRo) at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Raman microscopy (RM) at WellDog. In semi-blind Phase I, BRo values of the initial set of 8 samples were withheld prior to...
Pilot testing and protocol development of giant applesnail suppression at Mandalay National Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana—July–October 2017
Jacoby Carter, Sergio Merino
2018, Open-File Report 2018-1041
This report provides an overview of the pilot study and description of the techniques developed for a future mitigation study of Pomacea maculata (giant applesnail) at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Mandalay National Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana (MNWR). Egg mass suppression is a potential strategy for the mitigation of the...
Construction and analysis of a giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) population projection model
Jonathan P. Rose, Julia S. M. Ersan, Glenn D. Wylie, Michael L. Casazza, Brian J. Halstead
2018, Open-File Report 2017-1164
The giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) is a state and federally threatened species precinctive to California. The range of the giant gartersnake has contracted in the last century because its wetland habitat has been drained for agriculture and development. As a result of this habitat alteration, giant gartersnakes now largely...
Bioremediation in fractured rock: 1. Modeling to inform design, monitoring, and expectations
Claire R. Tiedeman, Allen M. Shapiro, Paul A. Hsieh, Thomas E. Imbrigiotta, Daniel J. Goode, Pierre Lacombe, Mary F. DeFlaun, Scott R. Drew, Carole D. Johnson, John H. Williams, Gary P. Curtis
2018, Groundwater (56) 300-316
Field characterization of a trichloroethene (TCE) source area in fractured mudstones produced a detailed understanding of the geology, contaminant distribution in fractures and the rock matrix, and hydraulic and transport properties. Groundwater flow and chemical transport modeling that synthesized the field characterization information proved critical for designing bioremediation of the...
Fate of antimony and arsenic in contaminated waters at the abandoned Su Suergiu mine (Sardinia, Italy)
Rosa Cidu, Elisabetta Dore, Riccardo Biddau, D. Kirk Nordstrom
2018, Mine Water and the Environment (37) 151-165
We investigated the fate of Sb and As downstream of the abandoned Su Suergiu mine (Sardinia, Italy) and surrounding areas. The mined area is a priority in the Sardinian remediation plan for contaminated sites due to the high concentrations of Sb and As in the mining-related wastes, which may impact...
Calibration of a field-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with field placement of best management practices in Alger Creek, Michigan
Katherine R. Merriman, Amy M. Russell, Cynthia M. Rachol, Prasad Daggupati, Raghavan Srinivasan, Brett A. Hayhurst, Todd D. Stuntebeck
2018, Sustainability (10) 1-23
Subwatersheds within the Great Lakes “Priority Watersheds” were targeted by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) to determine the effectiveness of the various best management practices (BMPs) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service National Conservation Planning (NCP) Database. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is...
Attribution analysis of the Ethiopian drought of 2015
Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike Otto, Sarah O’Keefe, Karsten Haustein, Andrew L. King, Abiy Zegeye, Zewdu Eshetu, Kinfe Hailemariam, Roop Singh, Eddie Jjemba, Chris Funk, Heidi Cullen
2018, Journal of Climate (31) 2465-2486
In northern and central Ethiopia, 2015 was a very dry year. Rainfall was only from one-half to three-quarters of the usual amount, with both the “belg” (February–May) and “kiremt” rains (June–September) affected. The timing of the rains that did fall was also erratic. Many crops failed, causing food shortages for...
