Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges
Mike Dietze, Andrew Fox, Lindsay Beck-Johnson, Julio L. Betancourt, Mevin Hooten, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Timothy H. Keitt, Melissa A. Kenney, Christine M. Laney, Laurel G. Larsen, Henry W. Loescher, Claire K. Lunch, Bryan Pijanowski, James T. Randerson, Emily Read, Andrew T. Tredennick, Rodrigo Vargas, Kathleen C. Weathers, Ethan P. White
2018, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (115) 1424-1432
Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting...
Distribution of effluent injected into the Boulder Zone of the Floridan aquifer system at the North District Wastewater Treatment Plant, southeastern Florida, 1997–2011
Jeffrey N. King, Jeremy D. Decker
2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5145
Nonhazardous, secondarily treated, domestic wastewater (effluent) has been injected about 1 kilometer below land surface into the Boulder Zone of the Floridan aquifer system at the North District Wastewater Treatment Plant in southeastern Florida. The Boulder Zone contains saline, nonpotable water. Effluent transport out of the injection zone is a...
Post-breeding migration and connectivity of red knots in the Western Atlantic
James E. Lyons, Bradford Winn, Timothy Keyes, Kevin S. Kalasz
2018, Journal of Wildlife Management (82) 383-396
Red knots (Calidris canutus rufa) have 3 distinct nonbreeding regions: 1 in the southeastern United States and Caribbean, another on the northeast coast of Brazil in the Maranhão region, and a third along the Patagonian coasts of Chile and Argentina. Effective conservation and recovery of this threatened long-distance migrant will...
Vegetation cover, tidal amplitude and land area predict short-term marsh vulnerability in Coastal Louisiana
Donald Schoolmaster, Camille L. Stagg, Leigh Anne Sharp, Tommy S. McGinnis, Bernard Wood, Sarai Piazza
2018, Ecosystems (21) 1335-1347
The loss of coastal marshes is a topic of great concern, because these habitats provide tangible ecosystem services and are at risk from sea-level rise and human activities. In recent years, significant effort has gone into understanding and modeling the relationships between the biological and physical factors that contribute to...
Comparison of HSPF and PRMS model simulated flows using different temporal and spatial scales in the Black Hills, South Dakota
D. R. Chalise, Adel E. Haj, T.A. Fontaine
2018, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering (23) 1-7
The hydrological simulation program Fortran (HSPF) [Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran version 12.2 (Computer software). USEPA, Washington, DC] and the precipitation runoff modeling system (PRMS) [Precipitation Runoff Modeling System version 4.0 (Computer software). USGS, Reston, VA] models are semidistributed, deterministic hydrological tools for simulating the impacts of precipitation, land use,...
Modeling drivers of phosphorus loads in Chesapeake Bay tributaries and inferences about long-term change
Karen R. Ryberg, Joel D. Blomquist, Lori A. Sprague, Andrew J. Sekellick, Jennifer L. Keisman
2018, Science of the Total Environment (616–617) 1423-1430
Causal attribution of changes in water quality often consists of correlation, qualitative reasoning, listing references to the work of others, or speculation. To better support statements of attribution for water-quality trends, structural equation modeling was used to model the causal factors of total phosphorus loads in the Chesapeake Bay watershed....
Concentrations of environmental DNA (eDNA) reflect spawning salmon abundance at fine spatial and temporal scales
Michael D. Tillotson, Ryan P. Kelly, Jeffrey J. Duda, Marshal S. Hoy, James Kralj, Thomas P. Quinn
2018, Biological Conservation (220) 1-11
Developing fast, cost-effective assessments of wild animal abundance is an important goal for many researchers, and environmental DNA (eDNA) holds much promise for this purpose. However, the quantitative relationship between species abundance and the amount of DNA present in the environment is likely to vary substantially among taxa and with...
Dietary plasticity in a nutrient-rich system does not influence brown bear (Ursus arctos) body condition or denning
Lindsey S. Mangipane, Jerrold L. Belant, Diana J. R. Lafferty, David D. Gustine, Tim L. Hiller, Michael E. Colvin, Buck A. Mangipane, Grant V. Hilderbrand
2018, Polar Biology (41) 763-772
Behavioral differences within a population can allow use of a greater range of resources among individuals. The brown bear (Ursus arctos) is a generalist omnivore that occupies diverse habitats and displays considerable plasticity in food use. We evaluated whether brown bear foraging that resulted in deviations from a...
Using interviews and biological sign surveys to infer seasonal use of forested and agricultural portions of a human-dominated landscape by Asian elephants in Nepal
Babu Ram Lamichhane, Naresh Subedi, Chiranjibi Prasad Pokheral, Maheshwar Dhakal, Krishna Prasad Acharya, Narendra Man Babu Pradhan, James L. David Smith, Sabita Malla, Bishnu Singh Thakuri, Charles B. Yackulic
2018, Ethology Ecology and Evolution (30) 331-347
Understanding how wide-ranging animals use landscapes in which human use is highly heterogeneous is important for determining patterns of human–wildlife conflict and designing mitigation strategies. Here, we show how biological sign surveys in forested components of a human-dominated landscape can be combined with human interviews in agricultural portions of a...
Removing rural roads from the National Land Cover Database to create improved urban maps for the United States, 1992-2011
Christopher E. Soulard, William Acevedo, Stephen V. Stehman
2018, Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing (84) 101-109
Quantifying change in urban land provides important information to create empirical models examining the effects of human land use. Maps of developed land from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of the conterminous United States include rural roads in the developed land class and therefore overestimate the amount of urban...
Demographic modelling reveals a history of divergence with gene flow for a glacially tied stonefly in a changing post-Pleistocene landscape
Scott Hotaling, Clint C. Muhlfeld, J. Joseph Giersch, Omar Ali, Steve Jordan, Michael R. Miller, Gordon Luikart, David W. Weisrock
2018, Journal of Biogeography (45) 304-317
AimClimate warming is causing extensive loss of glaciers in mountainous regions, yet our understanding of how glacial recession influences evolutionary processes and genetic diversity is limited. Linking genetic structure with the influences shaping it can improve understanding of how species respond to environmental change. Here, we used genome-scale data and...
The impact of lidar elevation uncertainty on mapping intertidal habitats on barrier islands
Nicholas M. Enwright, Lei Wang, Sinéad M. Borchert, Richard H. Day, Laura C. Feher, Michael J. Osland
2018, Remote Sensing (10) 1-18
While airborne lidar data have revolutionized the spatial resolution that elevations can be realized, data limitations are often magnified in coastal settings. Researchers have found that airborne lidar can have a vertical error as high as 60 cm in densely vegetated intertidal areas. The uncertainty of digital elevation models is...
Shrubland carbon sink depends upon winter water availability in the warm deserts of North America
Joel A. Biederman, Russell L. Scott, John A. Arnone, Richard L. Jasoni, Marcy E. Litvak, Michael T. Moreo, Shirley A. Papuga, Guillermo E. Ponce-Campos, Adam P. Schreiner-McGraw, Enrique R. Vivoni
2018, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (249) 407-419
Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, such model-based analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO2 exchange in open shrublands, which is the most common global land cover type, covering ∼14% of Earth’s surface. Here we evaluate...
Time series sightability modeling of animal populations
Althea A. ArchMiller, Robert Dorazio, Katherine St. Clair, John R. Fieberg
2018, PLoS ONE (13) 1-16
Logistic regression models—or “sightability models”—fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed...
Unraveling the dynamics of magmatic CO2 degassing at Mammoth Mountain, California
Loic Pfeiffer, Christoph Wanner, Jennifer L. Lewicki
2018, Earth and Planetary Science Letters (484) 318-328
The accumulation of magmatic CO2 beneath low-permeability barriers may lead to the formation of CO2-rich gas reservoirs within volcanic systems. Such accumulation is often evidenced by high surface CO2 emissions that fluctuate over time. The temporal variability in surface degassing is believed in part to reflect a complex interplay between deep magmatic...
The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach
Peter S. Coates, Brian G. Prochazka, Mark A. Ricca, Brian J. Halstead, Michael L. Casazza, Erik J. Blomberg, Brianne E. Brussee, Lief Wiechman, Joel Tebbenkamp, Scott C. Gardner, Kerry P. Reese
2018, The Auk (135) 240-261
Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying...
Why large cells dominate estuarine phytoplankton
James E. Cloern
2018, Limnology and Oceanography (63) S392-S409
Surveys across the world oceans have shown that phytoplankton biomass and production are dominated by small cells (picoplankton) where nutrient concentrations are low, but large cells (microplankton) dominate when nutrient-rich deep water is mixed to the surface. I analyzed phytoplankton size structure in samples collected over 25 yr in San...
Hypocenter relocation along the Sunda arc in Indonesia, using a 3D seismic velocity model
Andri Dian Nugraha, Hasbi A. Shiddiqi, Sri Widiyantoro, Clifford H. Thurber, Jeremy D. Pesicek, Haijiang Zhang, Samsul H. Wiyono, Mohamad Ramadhan, Wandano, Mahsyur Irsyam
2018, Seismological Research Letters (89) 603-612
The tectonics of the Sunda arc region is characterized by the junction of the Eurasian and Indo‐Australian tectonic plates, causing complex dynamics to take place. High‐seismicity rates in the Indonesian region occur due to the interaction between these tectonic plates. The availability of a denser network of seismometers after the...
Making ecological models adequate
Wayne M. Getz, Charles R. Marshall, Colin J. Carlson, Luca Giuggioli, Sadie J. Ryan, Stephanie S. Romanach, Carl Boettiger, Samuel D. Chamberlain, Laurel Larsen, Paolo D'Odorico, David O’Sullivan
2018, Ecology Letters (21) 153-166
Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological...
Juvenile coho salmon growth and health in streams across an urbanization gradient
Andrew R. Spanjer, Patrick W. Moran, Kimberly Larsen, Lisa Wetzel, Adam G. Hansen, David A. Beauchamp
2018, Science of the Total Environment (625) 1003-1012
Expanding human population and urbanization alters freshwater systems through structural changes to habitat, temperature effects from increased runoff and reduced canopy cover, altered flows, and increased toxicants. Current stream assessments stop short of measuring health or condition of species utilizing these freshwater habitats and fail to link specific stressors mechanistically...
Virulence of a chimeric recombinant infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus expressing the spring viraemia of carp virus glycoprotein in salmonid and cyprinid fish
Eveline J. Emmenegger, Stephane Biacchesi, Emilie Merour, Jolene. A Glenn, Alexander D. Palmer, Michel Bremont, Gael Kurath
2018, Journal of Fish Diseases (41) 67-78
Infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) and spring viraemia of carp virus (SVCV) are both rhabdoviruses of fish, listed as notifiable disease agents by the World Organization for Animal Health. Recombinant rhabdoviruses with heterologous gene substitutions have been engineered to study genetic determinants and assess the potential of these recombinant viruses...
Accommodating state shifts within the conceptual framework of the wetland continuum
David M. Mushet, Owen P. McKenna, James W. LaBaugh, Ned H. Euliss Jr., Donald O. Rosenberry
2018, Wetlands (38) 647-651
The Wetland Continuum is a conceptual framework that facilitates the interpretation of biological studies of wetland ecosystems. Recently summarized evidence documenting how a multi-decadal wet period has influenced aspects of wetland, lake and stream systems in the southern prairie-pothole region of North America has revealed the potential for wetlands to...
Hydroclimatology of the Missouri River basin
Erika K. Wise, Connie A. Woodhouse, Gregory J. McCabe, Gregory T. Pederson, Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques
2018, Journal of Hydrometeorology (19) 161-182
Despite the importance of the Missouri River for navigation, recreation, habitat, hydroelectric power, and agriculture, relatively little is known about the basic hydroclimatology of the Missouri River basin (MRB). This is of particular concern given the droughts and floods that have occurred over the past several decades and the potential...
Occupancy modeling of autonomously recorded vocalizations to predict distribution of rallids in tidal wetlands
Lydia L. Stiffler, James T. Anderson, Todd E. Katzner
2018, Wetlands (38) 605-612
Conservation and management for a species requires reliable information on its status, distribution, and habitat use. We identified occupancy and distributions of king (Rallus elegans) and clapper (R. crepitans) rail populations in marsh complexes along the Pamunkey and Mattaponi Rivers in Virginia, USA by modeling data...
Investigating runoff efficiency in upper Colorado River streamflow over past centuries
Connie A. Woodhouse, Gregory T. Pederson
2018, Water Resources Research (54) 286-300
With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the...