Modeling the biophysical impacts of global change in mountain biosphere reserves
H.K.M. Bugmann, F. Ewert Bjornsen, W. Haeberli, Antoine Guisan, Daniel B. Fagre, A. Kaab
2007, Mountain Research and Development (27) 66-77
Mountains and mountain societies provide a wide range of goods and services to humanity, but they are particularly sensitive to the effects of global environmental change. Thus, the definition of appropriate management regimes that maintain the multiple functions of mountain regions in a time of greatly changing climatic, economic, and...
Modeling and monitoring biophysical dynamics and change
Daniel B. Fagre
Tony Prato, Daniel B. Fagre, editor(s)
2007, Book chapter, Sustaining Rocky Mountain landscapes: Science, policy and management of the Crown of the Continent ecosystem
No abstract available....
A simple solar radiation index for wildlife habitat studies
Kim A. Keating, Peter J. Gogan, John N. Vore, Lynn R. Irby
2007, Journal of Wildlife Management (71) 1344-1348
Solar radiation is a potentially important covariate in many wildlife habitat studies, but it is typically addressed only indirectly, using problematic surrogates like aspect or hillshade. We devised a simple solar radiation index (SRI) that combines readily available information about aspect, slope, and latitude. Our SRI is proportional to the...
Evaluating estimators for numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population
S. Cherry, G.C. White, K.A. Keating, Mark A. Haroldson, Charles C. Schwartz
2007, Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics (12) 195-215
Current management of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Yellowstone National Park and surrounding areas requires annual estimation of the number of adult female bears with cubs-of-the-year. We examined the performance of nine estimators of population size via simulation. Data were simulated using two methods for different combinations of...
Effective groundwater model calibration: With analysis of data, sensitivities, predictions, and uncertainty
Mary C. Hill, Claire R. Tiedeman
2007, Book
Methods and guidelines for developing and using mathematical modelsTurn to Effective Groundwater Model Calibration for a set of methods and guidelines that can help produce more accurate and transparent mathematical models. The models can represent groundwater flow and transport and other natural and engineered systems. Use this book and its...
Source-rock geochemistry of the San Joaquin Basin Province, California: Chapter 11 in Petroleum systems and geologic assessment of oil and gas in the San Joaquin Basin Province, California
Kenneth E. Peters, Leslie B. Magoon, Zenon C. Valin, Paul G. Lillis
2007, Professional Paper 1713-11
Source-rock thickness and organic richness are important input parameters required for numerical modeling of the geohistory of petroleum systems. Present-day depth and thickness maps for the upper Miocene Monterey Formation, Eocene Tumey formation of Atwill (1935), Eocene Kreyenhagen Formation, and Cretaceous-Paleocene Moreno Formation source rocks in the San Joaquin Basin...
Petroleum systems of the San Joaquin Basin Province, California -- geochemical characteristics of oil types: Chapter 9 in Petroleum systems and geologic assessment of oil and gas in the San Joaquin Basin Province, California
Paul G. Lillis, Leslie B. Magoon
2007, Professional Paper 1713-9
New analyses of 120 oil samples combined with 139 previously published oil analyses were used to characterize and map the distribution of oil types in the San Joaquin Basin, California. The results show that there are at least four oil types designated MM, ET, EK, and CM. Most of the...
Evolving plans for the USA National Phenology Network
Julio L. Betancourt, Mark D. Schwartz, David D. Breshears, Carol A. Brewer, Gary Frazer, John E. Gross, Susan J. Mazer, Bradley C. Reed, Bruce E. Wilson
2007, Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union (88) 211-211
Phenology is the study of periodic plant and animal life cycle events, how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual variations in climate, and how they modulate the abundance, diversity, and interactions of organisms. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) is currently being organized to engage federal agencies, environmental networks...
Simulation-optimization modeling to assist conjunctive management of stream-aquifer systems of Rhode Island
Paul M. Barlow, Gregory E. Granato, David P. Ahlfeld
2007, Groundwater News and Views: Newsletter of the Association of Groundwater Scientists and Engineers (4) 4-5
Data sources and compilation: Chapter 27 in Petroleum systems and geologic assessment of oil and gas in the San Joaquin Basin Province, California
T. R. Klett, James W. Schmoker
2007, Professional Paper 1713-27
Geologic, production, and exploration/discovery-history data are used by the U.S. Geological Survey to aid in the assessment of petroleum resources. These data, as well as the broad knowledge and experience of the assessing geologists, are synthesized to provide, for each assessment unit, geologic and exploration models upon which estimates are...
U.S. Geological Survey assessment concepts for conventional petroleum accumulations: Chapter 24 in Petroleum systems and geologic assessment of oil and gas in the San Joaquin Basin Province, California
James W. Schmoker, T. R. Klett
2007, Professional Paper 1713-24
Conventional petroleum accumulations are discrete fields or pools localized in structural or stratigraphic traps by the buoyancy of oil or gas in water; they float, bubble-like, in water. This report describes the fundamental concepts supporting the U.S. Geological Survey “Seventh Approximation” model for resource assessments of conventional accumulations. The Seventh...
U.S. Geological Survey input-data form and operational procedure for the assessment of conventional petroleum accumulations: Chapter 25 in Petroleum systems and geologic assessment of oil and gas in the San Joaquin Basin Province, California
T. R. Klett, James W. Schmoker, Ronald R. Charpentier
2007, Professional Paper 1713-25
The U.S. Geological Survey model for undiscovered conventional accumulations is designed to aid in the assessment of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (collectively called petroleum) resources. Conventional accumulations may be described in terms of discrete fields or pools localized in structural and stratigraphic traps by the buoyancy...
Soils at the hyperarid margin: The isotopic composition of soil carbonate from the Atacama Desert, Northern Chile
Jay Quade, Jason A. Rech, Claudio Latorre, Julio L. Betancourt, Erin Gleeson, Mary T.K. Kalin
2007, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta (71) 3772-3795
We evaluate the impact of exceptionally sparse plant cover (0–20%) and rainfall (2–114 mm/yr) on the stable carbon and oxygen composition of soil carbonate along elevation transects in what is among the driest places on the planet, the Atacama Desert in northern Chile. δ13C and δ18O values of carbonates from...
Inferences about winter temperatures and summer rains from the late Quaternary record of C4 perennial grasses and C3 desert shrubs in the northern Chihuahuan Desert
Camille A. Holmgren, Jodi Norris, Julio L. Betancourt
2007, Journal of Quaternary Science (22) 141-161
Late Quaternary histories of two North American desert biomes—C4 grasslands and C3 shrublands—are poorly known despite their sensitivity and potential value in reconstructing summer rains and winter temperatures. Plant macrofossil assemblages from packrat midden series in the northern Chihuahuan Desert show that C4 grasses and annuals typical of desert grassland...
Landscape scale controls on the vascular plant component of dissolved organic carbon across a freshwater delta
Robert S. Eckard, Peter J. Hernes, Brian A. Bergamaschi, Ramunas Stepanauskas, Carol Kendall
2007, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta (71) 5968-5984
Lignin phenol concentrations and compositions were determined on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) extracts (XAD resins) within the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (the Delta), the tidal freshwater portion of the San Francisco Bay Estuary, located in central California, USA. Fourteen stations were sampled, including the following habitats and land-use types: wetland,...
Quantifying landscape ruggedness for animal habitat analysis: A case study using bighorn sheep in the Mojave Desert
J.M. Sappington, K.M. Longshore, D.B. Thompson
2007, Journal of Wildlife Management (71) 1419-1426
Terrain ruggedness is often an important variable in wildlife habitat models. Most methods used to quantify ruggedness are indices derived from measures of slope and, as a result, are strongly correlated with slope. Using a Geographic Information System, we developed a vector ruggedness measure (VRM) of terrain based on a...
Identifying sites for elk restoration in Arkansas
R.L. Telesco, F.T. Van Manen, J. D. Clark, Michael E. Cartwright
2007, Journal of Wildlife Management (71) 1393-1403
We used spatial data to identify potential areas for elk (Cervus elaphus) restoration in Arkansas. To assess habitat, we used locations of 239 elk groups collected from helicopter surveys in the Buffalo National River area of northwestern Arkansas, USA, from 1992 to 2002. We calculated the Mahalanobis distance (D2) statistic...
Economic benefit of fertility control in wild horse populations
J. Bartholow
2007, Journal of Wildlife Management (71) 2811-2819
I projected costs for several contraceptive treatments that could be used by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to manage 4 wild horse (Equus caballus) populations. Potential management alternatives included existing roundup and selective removal methods combined with contraceptives of different duration and effectiveness. I projected costs for a 20-year...
How many tigers Panthera tigris are there in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand? An estimate using photographic capture-recapture sampling
S. Simcharoen, A. Pattanavibool, K. U. Karanth, J.D. Nichols, S. Kumar
2007, Oryx (41) 447-453
We used capture-recapture analyses to estimate the density of a tiger Panthera tigris population in the tropical forests of Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand, from photographic capture histories of 15 distinct individuals. The closure test results (z = 0.39, P = 0.65) provided some evidence in support of the...
Application of information theory methods to food web reconstruction
L.J. Moniz, E.G. Cooch, S.P. Ellner, J.D. Nichols, J.M. Nichols
2007, Ecological Modelling (208) 145-158
In this paper we use information theory techniques on time series of abundances to determine the topology of a food web. At the outset, the food web participants (two consumers, two resources) are known; in addition we know that each consumer prefers one of the resources over the other....
Adaptive harvest management of North American waterfowl populations: a brief history and future prospects
J.D. Nichols, M.C. Runge, Fred A. Johnson, B. Kenneth Williams
2007, Journal of Ornithology (148) S343-S349
Since 1995, the US Fish and Wildlife Service has used an adaptive approach to the management of sport harvest of mid-continent Mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos) in North America. This approach differs from many current approaches to conservation and management in requiring close collaboration between managers and scientists. Key elements of...
Hierarchical spatial models of abundance and occurrence from imperfect survey data
J. Andrew Royle, M. Kery, R. Gautier, Hans Schmid
2007, Ecological Monographs (77) 465-481
Many estimation and inference problems arising from large-scale animal surveys are focused on developing an understanding of patterns in abundance or occurrence of a species based on spatially referenced count data. One fundamental challenge, then, is that it is generally not feasible to completely enumerate ('census') all individuals present...
A Bayesian state-space formulation of dynamic occupancy models
J. Andrew Royle, M. Kery
2007, Ecology (88) 1813-1823
Species occurrence and its dynamic components, extinction and colonization probabilities, are focal quantities in biogeography and metapopulation biology, and for species conservation assessments. It has been increasingly appreciated that these parameters must be estimated separately from detection probability to avoid the biases induced by nondetection error. Hence, there is...
Bayesian multimodel inference for dose-response studies
W.A. Link, P.H. Albers
2007, Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (26) 1867-1872
Statistical inference in dose-response studies is model-based: The analyst posits a mathematical model of the relation between exposure and response, estimates parameters of the model, and reports conclusions conditional on the model. Such analyses rarely include any accounting for the uncertainties associated with model selection. The Bayesian inferential system provides...
Mapping the information landscape: Discerning peaks and valleys for ecological monitoring
L.J. Moniz, J.D. Nichols, J.M. Nichols
2007, Journal of Biological Physics (33) 171-181
We investigate previously unreported phenomena that have a potentially significant impact on the design of surveillance monitoring programs for ecological systems. Ecological monitoring practitioners have long recognized that different species are differentially informative of a system's dynamics, as codified in the well-known concepts of indicator or keystone species. Using a...
