Applying consequence-driven scenario selection to lifelines
Yolanda C Lin, David J. Wald, Eric M. Thompson, David Lallemant
2022, Conference Paper, Lifelines
We present a new consequence-driven framework for earthquake scenario selection. For emergency managers, utility operators, policy makers, and other stakeholders, a scenario-based seismic risk assessment is often necessary for the purpose of emergency management and planning. In developing a scientifically defensible scenario, stakeholders can simulate a realistic event in order...
Conduit processes in crystal-rich dacitic magma and implications for eruptive cycles at Guagua Pichincha volcano, Ecuador
Mathieu Colombier, Benjamin Bernard, Heather M. Wright, Jean-Luc Le Pennec, Francisco Caceres, Corrado Cimarelli, Michael J. Heap, Pablo Samaniego, Jeremie Vasseur, Donald B. Dingwell
2022, Bulletin of Volcanology (84)
Stratovolcanoes are commonly characterised by cyclic eruptive activity marked by transitions between dome-forming, Vulcanian, Subplinian and Plinian eruptions. Guagua Pichincha volcano (Ecuador) has been a location of such cyclicity for the past ~ 2000 years, with Plinian eruptions in the first and tenth centuries AD (Anno Domini/after Christ), and CE (Common Era)...
Lithology and disturbance drive cavefish and cave crayfish occurrence in the Ozark Highlands ecoregion
Joshua B. Mouser, Shannon K. Brewer, Matthew L. Niemiller, Robert Mollenhauer, Ronald A. Van Den Bussche
2022, Scientific Reports (12)
Diverse communities of groundwater-dwelling organisms (i.e., stygobionts) are important for human wellbeing; however, we lack an understanding of the factors driving their distributions, making it difficult to protect many at-risk species. Therefore, our study objective was to determine the landscape factors related to the occurrence of cavefishes and cave crayfishes...
Towards real-time probabilistic ash deposition forecasting for New Zealand
Rosa Transcoso, Yannik Behr, Tony Hurst, Natalia I. Deligne
2022, Journal of Applied Volcanology (11)
Volcanic ashfall forecasts are highly dependent on eruption source parameters (ESPs) and synoptic weather conditions at the time and location of the eruption. In New Zealand, MetService and GNS Science have been jointly developing an ashfall forecast system that incorporates four-dimensional high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP)...
Seismic evidence for magmatic underplating along the Kodiak-Bowie Seamount Chain, Gulf of Alaska
Gail L. Christeson, Sean P.S. Gulick, Maureen A. L. Walton, Ginger Barth
2022, Tectonophysics (845)
Oceanic crust formed at mid-ocean ridges may be later modified by off-ridge magmatism forming seamounts, guyots, and islands. We investigate processes associated with seamount formation in the Gulf of Alaska Seamount Province using two coincident seismic reflection/wide-angle profiles. A north-south profile...
Power-law viscoelastic flow of the lower accretionary prism in the Makran subduction zone following the 2013 Baluchistan Earthquake
Guo Cheng, William D. Barnhart, Shaoyang Li
2022, JGR Solid Earth (127)
Subduction zone accretionary prisms are commonly modeled as elastic structures where permanent deformation is accommodated by faulting and folding of otherwise elastic materials, yet accretionary prisms may exhibit other deformation styles over relatively short time scales. In this study, we use 6.5-year (2014–2021) Sentinel-1 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) time-series...
GCPs free photogrammetry for estimating tree height and crown diameter in Arizona cypress plantation using UAV-Mounted GNSS RTK
Morteza Pourreza, Fardin Moradi, Mohammad Khosravi, Azade Deljouei, Melanie K. Vanderhoof
2022, Forests (13)
One of the main challenges of using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in forest data acquisition is the implementation of Ground Control Points (GCPs) as a mandatory step, which is sometimes impossible for inaccessible areas or within canopy closures. This study aimed to test the accuracy of a...
Individual characteristics and abiotic factors influence out-migration dynamics of juvenile bull trout
Madeline C. Lewis, Christopher S. Guy, Eric W. Oldenburg, Thomas E. McMahon
2022, Fishes (7)
Fragmentation of rivers through anthropogenic modifications poses an imminent threat to the persistence of migratory fish, necessitating direct actions such as trap-and-haul programs to restore and conserve the migratory life-history component in populations of partially migratory species such as bull trout Salvelinus confluentus. We used a PIT-tag system to assess...
Geochemical evidence for diachronous uplift and synchronous collapse of the high elevation Variscan hinterland
Ian William Hillenbrand, Michael L. Williams
2022, Geophysical Research Letters (49)
Competing end-member models for the late Paleozoic Variscan orogeny (ca. 360-290 Ma) alternatively suggest moderate 2-3 km elevations underlain by relatively thin crust (55 km) that supported high 4-5 km elevations. We tested these models and quantified the crustal thickness and elevation evolution of...
Brown bear–sea otter interactions along the Katmai coast: Terrestrial and nearshore communities linked by predation
Daniel Monson, Rebecca L. Taylor, Grant Hilderbrand, Joy Erlenbach, Heather Coletti, James L. Bodkin
2022, Journal of Mammalogy
Sea otters were extirpated throughout much of their range by the maritime fur trade in the 18th and 19th centuries, including the coast of Katmai National Park and Preserve in southcentral Alaska. Brown bears are an important component of the Katmai ecosystem where they are the focus of a...
Reproductive success of Red-Billed Tropicbirds (Phaethon aethereus) on St. Eustatius, Caribbean Netherlands
H. Madden, M. Leopold, F. Rivera-Milán, K. Verdel, E. Eggermont, Patrick G.R. Jodice
2022, Waterbirds (45) 39-50
The daily nest-survival rates of Red-billed Tropicbirds (Phaethon aethereus) were estimated over six breeding seasons on St. Eustatius in the Caribbean. We analyzed 338 nesting attempts between 2013 and 2020. The daily survival rate (DSR) of tropicbird nests was modeled as a function of...
Use of a riverscape-scale model of fundamental physical habitat requirements for freshwater mussels to quantify mussel declines in a mining-contaminated stream: The Big River, Old Lead Belt, Southeast Missouri
Amanda E. Rosenberger, Garth A. Lindner
2022, Cooperator Science Series FWS/CSS-147-2022
The research described in this report was conducted as part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration process in the Big River. Our purpose was to compare habitat features and landscape factors that may be important for the establishment and persistence of mussel concentrations between the Big River and...
Framework for assessing and mitigating the impacts of offshore wind energy development on marine birds
Donald A Croll, Aspen A Ellis, Josh Adams, Aonghais S. C. P. Cook, Stefan Garthe, Morgan Wing Goodale, C. Scott Hall, Elliott L. Hazen, Bradford S. Keitt, Emily C. Kelsey, Jeffery B Leirness, Don E Lyons, Matthew W. McKown, Astrid Potiek, Kate R Searle, Floor H. Soudjin, R. Cotton Rockwood, Bernie R. Tershy, Martin Tinker, Eric A. Vanderwerf, Kathryn A Williams, Lindsay C. Young, Kelly Zilliacus
2022, Biological Conservation (276)
Offshore wind energy development (OWED) is rapidly expanding globally and has the potential to contribute significantly to renewable energy portfolios. However, development of infrastructure in the marine environment presents risks to wildlife. Marine birds in particular have life history traits that amplify population impacts from displacement and collision with offshore...
Effect of uncertainty of discharge data on uncertainty of discharge simulation for the Lake Michigan Diversion, northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana
David Soong, Thomas M. Over
2022, Scientific Investigations Report 2022-5102
Simulation models of watershed hydrology (also referred to as “rainfall-runoff models”) are calibrated to the best available streamflow data, which are typically published discharge time series at the outlet of the watershed. Even after calibration, the model generally cannot replicate the published discharges because of simplifications of the physical system...
The 2020 Westmorland, California earthquake swarm as aftershocks of a slow slip event sustained by fluid flow
K. Sirorattanakul, Z.E. Ross, M. Khoshmanesh, Elizabeth S. Cochran, M. Acosta, J.-P. Avouac
2022, Journal of Geophysical Research (127)
Swarms are bursts of earthquakes without an obvious mainshock. Some have been observed to be associated with transient aseismic fault slip, while others are thought to be related to fluids. However, the association is rarely quantitative due to insufficient data quality. We use high-quality GPS/GNSS, InSAR, and...
Ecological and socioeconomic factors associated with the human burden of environmentally mediated pathogens: A global analysis
Susanne H. Sokolow, Nicole Nova, Isabel J. Jones, Chelsea L. Wood, Kevin D. Lafferty, Andres Garchitorena, Skylar R. Hopkins, Andrea J Lund, Andrew J MacDonald, Christopher LeBoa, Alison J. Peel, Erin A. Mordecai, Meghan E Howard, Julia C Buck, David Lopez-Carr, Michele Barry, Matthew H Bonds, Giulio A. De Leo
2022, The Lancet Planetary Health (6) e870-e879
BackgroundBillions of people living in poverty are at risk of environmentally mediated infectious diseases—that is, pathogens with environmental reservoirs that affect disease persistence and control and where environmental control of pathogens can reduce human risk. The complex ecology of these diseases creates a global...
Tough places and safe spaces: Can refuges save salmon from a warming climate?
Marcia N. Snyder, Nathan H. Schumaker, Jason Dunham, Joseph L. Ebersole, Mathew L Keefer, Jonathan Halama, Randy L Comeleo, P.T. Leinenbach, Allen Brookes, Ben Cope, Jennifer Wu, John Palmer
2022, Ecosphere (13)
The importance of thermal refuges in a rapidly warming world is particularly evident for migratory species, where individuals encounter a wide range of conditions throughout their lives. In this study, we used a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model to evaluate the buffering potential of cold-water thermal...
Groundwater budgets for the Big Lost River Basin, south-central Idaho, 2000–19
Alexis Clark
Lauren M. Zinsser, editor(s)
2022, Scientific Investigations Report 2021-5078-C
The Big Lost River Basin, located in parts of Butte and Custer Counties in south-central Idaho, supports the communities surrounding the cities of Arco, Leslie, Mackay, and Moore and provides for agricultural resources that depend on a sustainable supply of surface water from the Big Lost River and its...
Suspended-sediment transport and water management, Jemez Canyon Dam, New Mexico, 1948–2018
Jeb E. Brown, Anne-Marie Matherne, Justin K. Reale, K. E. Miltenberger
2022, Scientific Investigations Report 2022-5081
Construction and operation of dams provide sources of clean drinking water, support large-scale irrigation, generate hydroelectricity, control floods, and improve river navigation. Yet these benefits are not without cost. Dams affect the natural flow regime, downstream sediment fluxes, and riverine and riparian ecosystems. The Jemez Canyon Dam in New Mexico...
Geologic, geomorphic, and edaphic underpinnings of dryland ecosystems: Colorado Plateau landscapes in a changing world
Michael C. Duniway, Christopher Benson, Travis W. Nauman, Anna C. Knight, John B. Bradford, Seth M. Munson, Dana L. Witwicki, Carolyn Livensperger, Matthew W. Van Scoyoc, Terry T Fisk, David Thoma, Mark E. Miller
2022, Ecosphere (13)
Drylands represent more than 41% of the global land surface and are at degradation risk due to land use and climate change. Developing strategies to mitigate degradation and restore drylands in the face of these threats requires an understanding of how drylands are shaped by not only soils and climate,...
Mapping 2-D bedload rates throughout a sand-bed river reach from high-resolution acoustical surveys of migrating bedforms
Jérôme Le Coz, Emeline Perret, Benoît Camenen, David J. Topping, Daniel D. Buscombe, Kate Leary, Guillaume Dramais, Paul E. Grams
2022, Water Resources Research (58)
This paper introduces a method for determining spatially-distributed, 2-D bedload rates using repeat, high-resolution surveys of the bed topography. As opposed to existing methods, bedform parameters and bedload rates are computed from bed elevation profiles interpolated along the local bedform velocities. The bedform velocity fields are computed...
Regularizing priors for Bayesian VAR applications to large ecological datasets
Eric J. Ward, Kristin N. Marshall, Mark David Scheuerell
2022, PeerJ (10)
Using multi-species time series data has long been of interest for estimating inter-specific interactions with vector autoregressive models (VAR) and state space VAR models (VARSS); these methods are also described in the ecological literature as multivariate autoregressive models (MAR, MARSS). To date, most studies have used these...
Rapidly assessing social characteristics of drought preparedness and decision making: A guide for practitioners
Katherine R. Clifford, Julia B. Goolsby, Amanda E. Cravens, Ashley E. Cooper
2022, Techniques and Methods 17-A1
Executive SummaryThis guide is intended to provide managers, decision makers, and other practitioners with advice on conducting a rapid assessment of the social dimensions of drought. Findings from a rapid assessment can provide key social context that may aid in decision making, such as when preparing a drought plan, allocating...
Stream corridor and upland sources of fluvial sediment and phosphorus from a mixed urban-agricultural tributary to the Great Lakes
James D. Blount, Leah Kammel, Faith Fitzpatrick
2022, Journal of Great Lakes Research (48) 1536-1549
Like many impaired Great Lakes tributaries, Apple Creek, Wisconsin (119 km2) has Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) targets for reducing suspended sediment and total phosphorus by 51.2 % and 64.2 %, respectively. From August 2017 - October 2018, a stream sediment budget and fingerprinting integrated study was conducted...
Passage of adult coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) over Lake Creek Falls, Oregon, 2019
Reed B. Fischer, Jason Dunham, Nicholas Scheidt, Amy C. Hansen, Emily D. Heaston
2022, Open-File Report 2022-1083
Across the Pacific Northwest, there are many examples of artificial structures created to allow passage of upstream-migrating salmon over natural barriers. We studied upstream passage across three structures installed in 1989 to allow passage of salmon over Lake Creek Falls, a series of three natural waterfalls at the outlet...
