A regional model comparison between MODPATH and MT3D of groundwater travel time distributions
Emily A. Baker, Paul Juckem, Daniel T. Feinstein, David J. Hart
2025, Groundwater (63) 861-873
Groundwater quality changes in wells and streams lag behind changes to land use due to groundwater travel times. Two contaminant transport methods were compared to assess differences in their simulated travel time distributions (TTDs) to streams and wells in the Wisconsin Central Sands. MODPATH simulates advective groundwater flow with particle...
Persistence of a declining anuran species across its distribution
Erin L. Koen, Edward Hance Ellington, William J. Barichivich, Howard Kochman, Kevin M. Enge, Susan E. Walls
2025, PLoS ONE (20)
Information on a species’ population dynamics, such as changes in abundance and distribution, can be used to identify declining populations and initiate conservation efforts and protections. For the Ornate Chorus Frog (Pseudacris ornata), anecdotal observations of local extirpation and population declines have been noted, but trends in its range-wide population...
Bears avoid residential neighborhoods in response to the experimental reduction of anthropogenic attractants
Cassandre C. Venumière-Lefebvre, Heather E. Johnson, Stewart W. Breck, Mathew W. Alldredge, Kevin R. Crooks
2025, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution (13)
Introduction: Urbanization is an extreme form of land use alteration, with human development driving changes in the distribution of resources available to wildlife. Some large carnivores have learned to exploit anthropogenic food resources in urban development, resulting in human-carnivore conflict that can have detrimental impacts to people and carnivores, as exemplified...
Accounting for seasonal patterns in bird availability prevents biased population trend estimates with advancing spring phenology
Emily L. Weiser, James Johnson, Steven M. Matsuoka, Colleen M. Handel
2025, Ornithological Applications (127) 1-11
Advancing spring phenology has been observed around the world, including changes in the timing of breeding of birds. When singing rates are tied to breeding stage, the rate at which birds are available for detection by surveyors can also show seasonal patterns that may shift with spring phenology. As the...
Strategic planning of prevention and surveillance for emerging diseases and invasive species
Jue Wang, Brenda J. Hanley, Noelle E. Thompson, Yu Gong, Daniel P. Walsh, Carlos Gonzalez-Crespo, Yitong Huang, James G. Booth, Joe N. Caudell, Landon A. Miller, Krysten L. Schuler
2025, PNAS (122)
Emerging infectious diseases and biological invasions pose increasing threats to public and ecosystems health. Proactive measures—such as prevention and surveillance taken before initial detection of the pathogen or species—are essential to ensure minimal spread prior to first detection. We developed an optimization model to determine where, when, and how much...
Ice Age biogeography corresponds with current climate vulnerability of freshwater fishes
Niall G. Clancy, Phaedra E. Budy, Annika W. Walters
2025, Freshwater Biology (70)
1. Both local environmental factors and historical biogeography shape ecological communities, but determining which historical biogeographical patterns correspond with contemporary climate vulnerability is an underused conservation method. The historical colonization patterns of freshwater fishes following the Pleistocene (“Ice Age”) glaciations offers an ideal model for comparing historical biogeography and climate-change...
Three-dimensional seismic velocity model for the Cascadia Subduction Zone with shallow soils and topography, version 1.7
Erin A. Wirth, Alex R. Grant, Ian P. Stone, William J. Stephenson, Arthur D. Frankel
2025, Open-File Report 2025-1045
The U.S. Geological Survey’s seismic velocity model for the Cascadia Subduction Zone provides P- and S-wave velocity (VP and VS, respectively) information from 40.2° to 50.0° N. latitude and −129.0° to −121.0° W. longitude, and is used to support a variety of research topics, including three-dimensional (3D) earthquake simulations and...
Machine learning generated streamflow drought forecasts for the Conterminous United States (CONUS): Developing and evaluating an operational tool to enhance sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow drought early warning for gaged locations
John C. Hammond, Phillip J. Goodling, Jeremy Alejandro Diaz, Hayley R. Corson-Dosch, Aaron Joseph Heldmyer, Scott Douglas Hamshaw, Ryan R. McShane, Jesse Cleveland Ross, Roy Sando, Caelan Simeone, Erik Smith, Leah Ellen Staub, David Watkins, Michael Wieczorek, Kendall C. Wnuk, Jacob Aaron Zwart
2025, Preprint
Forecasts of streamflow drought, when streamflow declines below typical levels, are notably less available than for floods or meteorological drought, despite widespread impacts. To address this gap, we apply machine learning (ML) models to forecast streamflow drought 1-13 weeks into the future at > 3,000 streamgage locations across the conterminous...
Scenario projections of COVID-19 burden in the US, 2024-2025
Sara L Loo, Sung-mok Jung, Lucie Contamin, Emily Howerton, Samantha Bents, Harry Hochheiser, Michael C. Runge, Claire P. Smith, Erica Carcelén, Katie Yan, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Emily Przykucki, Clif McKee, Koji Sato, Allison Hill, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Clara Bay, Alessandro Vespignani, Shi Chen, Rajib Paul, Daniel Janies, Jean-Claude Thill, Sean Moore, T. Alex Perkins, Ajitesh Srivastava, Majd Al Aawar, Kaiming Bi, Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar, Anass Bouchnita, Spencer Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Bryan Lewis, Jiangzhuo Chen, Madhav Marathe, Michal Ben-Nun, James Turtle, Pete Riley, Katriona Shea, Cécile Viboud, Justin Lessler, Shaun Truelove
2025, JAMA Network Open (8)
Importance COVID-19 remains a disease with high burden in the US, prompting continued debate about optimal targets for annual vaccination.Objective To project COVID-19 burden in the US for April 2024 to April 2025 under 6 scenarios of immune escape (20% and 50% per year) and levels of vaccine recommendation (no recommendation, vaccination...
Evaluating freshwater mussel sampling methodologies using a simulation model
Iris R. Foxfoot, Kiara C. Cushway, Astrid N. Schwalb, David R. Smith, Todd M. Swannack
2025, Ecological Indicators (179)
Field surveys form the basis of many research efforts and are the foundation for estimates of population size and density that inform conservation and management practices for imperiled species. As a result, evaluating the performance of different survey methods across a range of conditions that may be...
Reservoir operational strategies for sustainable sand management in the Colorado River
Gerard Lewis Salter, David J. Topping, Jianghao Wang, John C. Schmidt, Charles B. Yackulic, Lucas Bair, Erich R. Mueller, Paul E. Grams
2025, Water Resources Research (61)
Climate change and increasing societal demands for water pose challenges for the management of dam-regulated rivers. Management decisions impact the environment of these rivers, creating the need to balance societal needs with environmental conservation. Here we present a modeling framework that optimizes resource benefits within imposed water use goals for...
Interrogating process deficiencies in large-scale hydrologic models with interpretable machine learning
Admin Husic, John Christopher Hammond, Adam N. Price, Joshua Roundy
2025, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (29) 4457-4472
Large-scale hydrologic models are increasingly being developed for operational use in the forecasting and planning of water resources. However, the predictive strength of such models depends on how well they resolve various functions of catchment hydrology, which are influenced by gradients in climate, topography, soils, and land use. Most assessments...
Reduced Atlantic reef growth past 2 °C warming amplifies sea-level impacts
Chris T. Perry, Didier de Bakker, Alice Webb, Steeve Comeau, Ben Harvey, Chris Cornwall, Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip, Esmerelda Perez-Cervantes, John T Morris, Ian C. Enochs, Lauren T. Toth, Aaron O'Dea, Erin M. Dillon, Erik H, Meesters, William F. Precht
2025, Nature (646) 619-626
Coral reefs form complex physical structures that can help to mitigate coastal flooding risk1,2. This function will be reduced by sea-level rise (SLR) and impaired reef growth caused by climate change and local anthropogenic stressors3. Water depths above reef surfaces are projected to increase as a result, but the magnitudes...
Sources of water and salts for the Zuni Salt Lake in west-central New Mexico
Andrew J. Robertson, Jeff D. Pepin, Erin L. Gray, Jake W. Collison, Jeb E. Brown, Andre Ritchie, Grady Ball
2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5057
The Zuni Salt Lake is located in a maar in west-central New Mexico and contains hypersaline water that has long been used by Native Americans for religious purposes and the collection of salt. There have been several investigations suggesting different sources for the water and salt to the lake. Springs,...
Energetic value of Arctic forage-sized fish with implications for a nearshore seabird predator
Ashley E. Stanek, Brian D. Uher-Koch, Kenneth H. Dunton, Vanessa R. von Biela
2025, Marine Biology (172)
Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida, also called polar cod) are considered the single most important Arctic forage fish due to their high abundance and nutritional quality. Because Arctic cod are strongly ice associated and prefer colder waters, their frequency in coastal waters has declined with warming, decreasing availability to nearshore predators....
Ecophysiology of two mesophotic octocorals intended for restoration: Effects of light and temperature
Kassidy Lange, Allisan Aquilina-Beck, Mark Mccauley, Julia Johnstone, Amanda Demopoulos, Thomas Greig, Jody M. Beers, Heather L. Spalding, Peter J. Etnoyer
2025, Limnology and Oceanography (70) 3309-3321
Light and temperature are driving forces that shape the evolution and physiology of mesophotic organisms. On the Mississippi-Alabama continental shelf, octocorals dominate the mesophotic seascape and provide habitat for many fish and invertebrate species. Gaps in knowledge regarding the fundamental physiological responses of these species to light and temperature are...
Hydrologic connectivity in floodplain systems: A multiscale review of concepts, metrics and management
Hafez Ahmad, Leandro E. Miranda, Corey Garland Dunn, Melanie R. Boudreau, Michael E. Colvin
2025, Hydrological Processes (39)
Hydrologic connectivity (HC), particularly in floodplain systems, is pivotal in regulating ecosystem services by facilitating the movement of nutrients, sediments, chemicals, and biota. However, human interventions such as dam construction, levee installation, water management practices, and alterations in vegetation have significantly disrupted natural HC patterns globally. To provide a structured entry...
To heal or not to heal?: 2. The moment-recurrence time behavior of repeating earthquakes in the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma aftershock sequence is consistent with laboratory healing rates
Kristina Okamoto, Heather Savage, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Emily Brodsky, Rachel E. Abercrombie
2025, JGR Solid Earth (130)
The timing and failure conditions of an earthquake are governed by the interplay between fault reloading and restrengthening. The moment-recurrence time behavior of repeating earthquakes can give observational estimates of fault healing rates; however, it is difficult to link these observed healing rates to laboratory studies of frictional healing in...
Environmental drivers of Greater Sage-grouse population trends over 25 years in Idaho, USA
Robert S. Arkle, David S. Pilliod, Michelle I. Jeffries, Justin L. Welty, Ann Moser, Ethan A. Ellsworth, Donald J. Major
2025, Ecosphere (16)
Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations have been in decline for decades across much of the US Intermountain West. However, findings from 25 years of lek counts in Idaho indicate that some populations are stable or even increasing. After accounting for potential biases in past lek count data, we sought to explain...
Warming induces unexpectedly high soil respiration in a wet tropical forest
Tana E. Wood, Colin Lee Tucker, Aura M. Alonso-Rodríguez, M. Isabel Loza, Iana F. Grullón-Penkova, Molly A. Cavaleri, Christine S. O'Connell, Sasha C. Reed
2025, Nature Communications (16)
Tropical forests are a dominant regulator of the global carbon cycle, exchanging more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other terrestrial biome. Climate models predict unprecedented climatic warming in tropical regions in the coming decades; however, in situ field warming studies are severely lacking in tropical forests. Here we...
Model‐based decomposition of spatially varying temporal shifts in seasonal streamflow across north temperate US rivers.
Kevin M. Collins, Erin M. Schliep, Tyler Wagner, Christopher K. Wikle
2025, Water Resources Research (61)
Anthropogenically forced climate shifts disrupt the seasonal behavior of climatic and hydrologic processes. The seasonality of streamflow has significant implications for the ecology of riverine ecosystems and for meeting societal demands for water resources. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model of daily streamflow to quantify how the...
Utilizing downhole datasets for modelling the aeromagnetic signature of the Iron Creek Co-Cu deposit in the Idaho Cobalt Belt
Daniel Schmidt, Geoffrey Phelps, Katharina I. Pfaff, Thomas Monecke
2025, Conference Paper
The Idaho Cobalt Belt in east-central Idaho is host to some of the largest domestic Co resources, including the informal Iron Creek deposit. The two main ore zones of this deposit, the Iron Creek and the Ruby, are hosted in greenschist-grade interbedded argillite/siltstone and quartz-rich units of the Mesoproterozoic Apple...
Fingerprinting magmatic REE deposit sources with zircon petrochronology
Ian William Hillenbrand, Erin Kay Benson, Kathryn E. Watts, Jay M. Thompson
2025, Conference Paper
Carbonatites and associated alkaline silicate rocks are of considerable economic interest due to their enrichments in rare earth elements. The petrogenesis and source(s) of these complexes, however, are poorly understood. Models propose either mantle plume-derived carbon-rich melts or a mantle source enriched by subduction-related metasomatism. We use zircon trace elements...
Paleoproterozoic vein graphite mineralization caused by decarbonation in the Ruby Range, Montana, USA
George N.D. Case, Jay M. Thompson, Sean P. Regan
2025, Conference Paper
Hydrothermal graphite veins are a possible source for modern battery materials and require better understanding of their carbon source(s) and absolute timing to develop mapable criteria for exploration models. We present new observations of graphite vein and alteration paragenesis and U-Pb LA-ICP-MS titanite age data from the Ruby prospect, Montana,...
40Ar/39Ar geochronology supporting mineral resources research at USGS Denver
Leah E. Morgan, Cameron Mark Mercer
2025, Conference Paper
The 40Ar/39Ar geochronology method is used to date potassium-bearing rocks and minerals, based on the decay of 40K to 40Ar, which provides important temporal constraints for geological events. The USGS Denver Argon Geochronology Laboratory dates samples from a variety of projects, mainly in the USGS Mineral Resource Program and the...
