Failure to meet the exchangeability assumption in Bayesian multispecies occupancy models: Implications for study design
Gavin G. Cotterill, Douglas A. Keinath, Tabitha A. Graves
2025, Preprint
Bayesian hierarchical models are ubiquitous in ecology. Random effect model structures are often employed that treat individual effects as deviations from larger population-level effects. In this way individuals are assumed to be "exchangeable" samples. Ecologists may address this exchangeability assumption intuitively, but might in certain modeling contexts ignore it altogether,...
Rhenium-osmium and oxygen isotope homogeneity during the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption and implications for basaltic magma storage
Emily A. Rhoads, Anton Kutyrev, Ilya N. Bindeman, Kendra J. Lynn, Frank A. Trusdell, Drew T. Downs, Hunter R. Edwards, Geoffrey W. Cook, James M.D. Day
2025, Bulletin of Volcanology (87)
Mauna Loa is one of the largest and most active volcanoes on Earth. The most recent eruption of Mauna Loa started on 27 November 2022, lasted for 13 days, and was preceded by the longest repose time of 38 years in its modern history. In this contribution, new trace- and highly siderophile-element...
Finding the hidden orogeny – The Proterozoic polymetamorphic history of northern New Mexico
Ian William Hillenbrand, Michael L Williams, Amy K. Gilmer, Karl E. Karlstrom, Michael J. Jercinovic, Daniel J Young
2025, Terra Nova (37) 304-315
Pressure–temperature–time-deformation histories provide key constraints on orogenic processes but can be affected by later overprinting. This is exemplified in the Proterozoic orogenic belts of southwestern Laurentia where competing tectonic models involve either a single progressive Mesoproterozoic event, the Picuris orogeny, or a polyorogenic history that also includes the ~1.65 Ga Mazatzal...
Stable occupancy of conservation-priority birds amid community shifts across 16 years on Iowa wetland easements
Lindsey A.W. Gapinski, Karen E. Kinkead, Adam K. Janke, Stephen J. Dinsmore, Todd Bishop, Anna Maureen Tucker
2025, Ornithological Applications (127)
Intensive agriculture in the Prairie Pothole Region of Iowa, USA has resulted in significant wetland drainage and wildlife population declines. However, easement programs are increasingly used to protect and restore wetlands and revitalize biodiversity. Short-term responses (i.e., 1–5 years) of birds to wetland restorations are well-documented, but...
Metal fingerprints of Eocene rhyolite magmas coincident with Carlin-type gold deposition in Nevada USA
Celestine N. Mercer, Hannah R. Babel, Cameron Mark Mercer, Albert H. Hofstra
2025, Minerals (15)
Eocene magmatic systems contemporaneous with world-class Carlin-type Au deposits in Nevada (USA) have been proposed by some researchers as a key ingredient for Au mineralization, though evidence conclusively demonstrating their genetic relationship remains tenuous. This study provides the first direct evidence of the pre-eruptive metal budget of volatile- and metal-charged...
Geomorphological evidence of near-surface ice at candidate landing sites in northern Amazonis Planitia, Mars
Erica Luzzi, Jennifer L. Heldmann, Kaj E. Williams, Giacomo Nodjoumi, Ariel Deutsch, Alexander Sehlke
2025, JGR Planets (130)
This work presents geomorphological analyses of an area at the boundary between Arcadia Planitia and northern Amazonis Planitia, situated in the northern mid-latitudes of Mars. Recent studies have indicated the presence of substantial volumes of near-surface excess ice in Arcadia Planitia, making this region a promising candidate for future human...
One-hundred fundamental, open questions to integrate methodological approaches in lake ice research
Joshua Culpepper, Sapna Sharma, Grant Gunn, Madeline Magee, Michael Frederick Meyer, Eric Anderson, Christoper D. Arp, Sarah Cooley, Wayana Dolan, Hilary Dugan, Claude R. Duguay, Benjamin C. Jones, Georgiy Kirillin, Robert Ladwig, Matti Lepparanta, Di Long, John J. Magnuson, Tamlin Pavelsky, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Dale M. Robertson, Bethel Steele, Manu Tom, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, R. Iesytn Woolway, Marguerite A. Xenopoulos, Xiao Yang
2025, Water Resources Research (616)
The rate of technological innovation within aquatic sciences outpaces the collective ability of individual scientists within the field to make appropriate use of those technologies. The process of in situ lake sampling remains the primary choice to comprehensively understand an aquatic ecosystem at local scales; however, the impact of climate change on lakes necessitates...
Reproductive characteristics and spawning potential ratio modeling of a vulnerable riverine specialist in the lower unchannelized Missouri River, USA
Lindsey A.P. LaBrie, Tanner L. Carlson, Jeff S. Wesner, Chelsey A. Pasbrig, Steven R. Chipps, Benjamin J. Schall
2025, Fisheries Research (286)
Reproductive characteristics for populations of imperiled, non-game species are not regularly studied but may be important for identifying factors associated with their population sustainability. Understanding reproductive traits of vulnerable species, particularly long-lived species, may provide insight for implementing management actions to respond to potential overharvest. This study aimed to assess...
Overview of The SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence
Rachel E. Abercrombie, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Shanna Chu, Taka’aki Taira, Dino Bindi, Oliver S. Boyd, Xiaowei Chen, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Emma Devin, Douglas Dreger, William Ellsworth, Fan Wenyuan, Rebecca Harrington, Yihe Huang, Kilian Kemna, Meichen Liu, Adrien Oth, Grace Alexandra Parker, Colin Pennington, Matteo Picozzi, Christine J. Ruhl, Peter Shearer, Daniele Spallarossa, Daniel Trugman, Ian Vandevert, Qimin Wu, Clara Yoon, Ellen Yu, Gregory C. Beroza, Tom Eulenfeld, Trey Knudson, Kevin Mayeda, Paola Morasca, James S. Neely, Jorge I. Roman-Nieves, Claudio Satriano, Mariano Supino, William R. Walter, Ralph Archuleta, Gail Marie Atkinson, Giovanna Calderoni, Chen Ji, Hongfeng Yang, Jiewen Zhang
2025, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (115) 734-759
We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress‐drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress...
Introduction to the special section on improving measurements of earthquake source parameters
Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Rachel E. Abercrombie, Adrien Oth, Takahiko Uchide
2025, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (115) 723-733
Earthquake source parameters such as magnitude, seismic moment, source dimension, stress drop, and radiated energy are fundamental to understanding earthquake physics, and are also key ingredients in earthquake ground‐motion modeling, rupture simulation, and statistical seismology. However, the uncertainties in these parameters estimated from the radiated seismic wavefield are large due...
An early Holocene wet period in the southwestern United States
Kathleen B. Springer, Adam M. Hudson, Jeffrey S. Pigati, Katharine W. Huntington, Andrew J. Schauer
2025, Geology (53) 631-635
Multiple generations of spring-fed streams traversed ∼800 km2 of the Las Vegas Valley in southern Nevada between ca. 10.9 ka and 8.5 ka, depositing an extensive tufa network. The scale of this network and diversity of tufa morphologies is novel in North America and offers an opportunity to obtain quantitative paleoclimate...
Spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture to evaluate demographic status of the Louisiana black bear
Joseph D. Clark, Heidi L. Adams, Ben Augustine, John R. Berry III, Dustin Champagne, Maria Davidson, John Hanks, Jared S. Laufenberg, Sean M. Murphy
2025, Journal of Wildlife Management (89)
Louisiana black bears (Ursus americanus luteolus) occur in semi-isolated fragments of bottomland hardwood forest in the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley and were listed as threatened under the United States Endangered Species Act in 1992. A population viability analysis based on radio-telemetry and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data collected from 2002 to 2012...
Sources and risk factors for nitrate, pathogens, and fecal contamination of private wells in rural southwestern Wisconsin, USA
Joel P. Stokdyk, Aaron D. Firnstahl, Kenneth Bradbury, Maureen A. Muldoon, Burney Kieke Jr., Mark A. Borchardt
2025, Water Research (275)
Household well water can be degraded by contaminants from the land's surface, but private well owners lack means to protect the source water from neighboring disturbances. Rural residents of southwestern Wisconsin, USA, rely on private well water, and the combination of land use and fractured carbonate bedrock makes groundwater vulnerable...
Airborne geophysical analysis to decipher salinization for coastal Louisiana
Michael Attia, Frank T.-C. Tsai, Shuo Yang, Burke J. Minsley, Wade Kress
2025, Water Research (271)
Coastal Louisiana is known for saltwater intrusion that threatens wetlands, aquifers, and rivers. However, the extent of saltwater intrusion is not well understood. This study develops an innovative framework with airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data to map chloride concentration distributions for wetlands in the Mississippi River deltaic plain and Chenier plain...
U.S. Geological Survey Colorado River Basin science and technology collaboration meetings on drought (2021)—Synthesis of findings
Adrian Pierre-Frederic Monroe, Jason S. Alexander, Eric D. Anderson, Patrick J. Anderson, William J. Andrews, Jessica M. Driscoll, Rebecca J. Frus, Joseph A. Hevesi, Daniel K. Jones, Kathryn A. Thomas, Anne C. Tillery, Alicia A. Torregrosa, Katharine G. Dahm
2025, Circular 1551
Ongoing, prolonged, and severe drought and water overuse during the first two decades of the 21st century have reduced water supplies of the Colorado River Basin, with effects cascading to ecosystems and human communities throughout the basin. In June and July 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Colorado River Basin...
Alaskan hydrology in transition: Changing precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns are projected to reshape seasonal streamflow and water temperature by midcentury (2035-2064)
D Blaskey, Yifan Cheng, A. C. Newman, Joshua C. Koch, M Goseff, K Musselman
2025, Journal of Hydrometeorology (26) 613-626
High spatial and temporal resolution models are essential for understanding future climate impacts and developing effective climate resilience plans. However, existing regional and global river models often lack the resolution needed to accurately capture local conditions. This study uses a series of high-resolution models, including the Regional Arctic System Model,...
Anatectic origin of Mississippian spodumene-bearing pegmatites in western Maine during orogenic plateau collapse
Myles M Felch, Ian William Hillenbrand, J. Dykstra Eusden, Christopher S. Holm-Denoma, Dwight C. Bradley, Amber T.H. Whittaker, Michael J. Jercinovic, Michael L. Williams, Laura Pianowski
2025, Economic Geology (120) 779-806
Spodumene pegmatites are an important lithium source, but the processes and tectonic settings in which they form are poorly understood. The Rumford pegmatite district surrounding Plumbago Mountain, western Maine, is host to numerous spodumene pegmatites, including the Plumbago North pegmatite (a world-class spodumene resource). Competing petrogenetic models for these spodumene...
The socio-ecological niche
Michael C Mcinturff, Peter S. Alagona, Clare E.B. Cannon, David N. Pellow
2025, People and Nature (7) 1185-1197
1. Ecologists recognise that we live on an increasingly human-dominated planet, yet most of the field's foundational concepts remain essentially biophysical, with little reference to human society.2. There are few better examples of this divide between ecological and social theory than the niche concept. During its century-long history, the niche...
2022–2024 Status and trends of the Palila (Loxioides bailleui)
Noah Hunt, Chauncey K. Asing, Lindsey Nietmann, Paul C. Banko, Richard J. Camp
2025, Hawaii Cooperative Studies Unit Technical Report HCSU-115
Palila (Loxioides bailleui) are critically endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers specializing on the seedpods of māmane (Sophora chrysophylla) and restricted to Mauna Kea volcano on the Island of Hawaiʻi. A previous analysis of survey data estimated an 89% population decline between 1998 and 2021. Using the most recent annual survey data from...
Factors influencing daily nest survival rates of Aleutian terns in the Kodiak Archipelago, Alaska
Jill E. Tengeres, Katie Dugger, Robin M. Corcoran, Donald E. Lyons
2025, Journal of Wildlife Management (89)
The Aleutian tern (Onychoprion aleuticus) is a species of high conservation concern in Alaska, USA, owing to large declines at known breeding locations since the 1960s. The small population size and ephemeral behavior of this species have limited the collection of basic biological information and hindered the identification of potential...
Idiosyncratic spatial scaling of biodiversity–disease relationships
Neil A. Gilbert, Graziella Vittoria DiRenzo, Elise Zipkin
2025, Ecography (2025)
High host biodiversity is hypothesized to dilute the risk of vector-borne diseases if many host species are ‘dead ends' that cannot effectively transmit the disease and low-diversity areas tend to be dominated by competent host species. However, many studies on biodiversity–disease relationships characterize host biodiversity at single, local spatial scales,...
Cgsim: An R package for simulation of population genetics for conservation and management applications
Shawna J Zimmerman, Sara J. Oyler-McCance
2025, Molecular Ecology Resources (25)
Wildlife conservation and management increasingly considers genetic information to plan, understand and evaluate implemented population interventions. These actions commonly include conservation translocation and population reductions through removals. Change in genetic variation in response to management actions can be unintuitive due to the influence of multiple interacting drivers (e.g. genetic drift,...
Sampling dragonflies for mercury analysis in Grand Canyon National Park, 2018–2024: A contribution of the Dragonfly Mercury Project
Colleen M. Flanagan Pritz, Colleen Emery, Branden L. Johnson, James Willacker, Christopher James Kotalik, Katherine Ko, Michael A. Bell, David Walters, Collin A. Eagles-Smith
2025, Science Report NPS/SR-2025/283
The Dragonfly Mercury Project is a collaborative initiative that utilizes dragonfly larvae as biosentinels to monitor mercury concentrations across 180 national parks and other protected lands, including Grand Canyon National Park (GRCA). These indicators serve as surrogates for environmental risk and can indicate where fish consumption could pose health risks...
Experimental evaluation of Eastern box turtle (Terrapene carolina carolina) detectability in visual search surveys
William Heinle, Noelle Beswick, Emily Wapman, Andy Royle
2025, Herpetological Conservation and Biology (20) 82-93
Understanding how detection probability varies over time, space, or in response to measurable covariates is important to inform the monitoring and assessment of many species. A standard model to understand detectability, the availability/perception model, admits that detection probability is the composite of two components: availability and ability of surveyors to...
Coastal fine-grained sediment plumes from beach nourishment near Santa Barbara, California
Jonathan A. Warrick, Andrew W. Stevens, Babak Tehranirad
2025, Coastal Engineering Journal (67) 558-582
Terrestrial sediments captured by flood control facilities such as dams, debris basins, and engineered stream channels can reduce sediment fluxes to littoral cells. The beneficial use of these sediments for beach nourishment may induce negative environmental effects from turbidity or sedimentation caused by the source material. Here, we examine the...
