Comparison of simple averaging and latent class modeling to estimate the area of land cover in the presence of reference data variability
Dingfan Xing, Stephen V. Stehman, Giles M Foody, Bruce Pengra
2021, Land (10)
Estimates of the area or percent area of the land cover classes within a study region are often based on the reference land cover class labels assigned by analysts interpreting satellite imagery and other ancillary spatial data. Different analysts interpreting the same spatial unit will not always...
Regional crop water use assessment using Landsat-derived evapotranspiration
Arun Bawa, Gabriel B. Senay, Sandeep Kumar
2021, Hydrologic Processes (35)
Reliable information on water use and availability at basin and field scales are important to ensure the optimized constructive uses of available water resources. This study was conducted with the specific objective to estimate Landsat-based actual evapotranspiration (ETa) using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model across the state...
Movement, recruitment, and abundance relationships of Prairie Chub: An endemic Great Plains cyprinid
Shannon K. Brewer, Robert M. Mollenhauer, Joshua Perkin, Zachary D. Steffensmeier, Maeghen Wedgeworth
2021, Report
The Prairie Chub Macrhybopsis australis is a poorly studied endemic cyprinid of the upper Red River basin and is listed as threatened in Texas and of greatest conservation need in Oklahoma. Hypothesized mechanisms have been proposed to explain the decline of pelagic broadcast spawning...
River terrace evidence of tectonic processes in the eastern North American plate interior, South Anna River, Virginia
Frank J. Pazzaglia, Helen F. Malenda, Matthew L. McGavick, Cody Raup, Mark W. Carter, Claudio Berti, Shannon A. Mahan, Michelle S. Nelson, Tammy M. Rittenour, Ron Counts, Jane K Willenbring, Dru Germanoski, Stephen C. Peters, William D. Holt
2021, Journal of Geology (129) 595-624
We show that long-recognized seismicity in the central Virginia seismic zone of the eastern North American intraplate setting arises primarily from tectonic processes predicted by new, fully coupled plate tectonic geodynamic models. The study leverages much new geophysical and geologic data following the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake that ruptured a...
Yearly temperature fluctuations and survey speed influence road counts of wintering raptors
Christopher J W McClure, Brian W. Rolek, Gregory W Grove, Todd E. Katzner
2021, Ibis (163) 593-606
Globally, evaluation of population trends is the most pressing research need for many species of conservation concern. Road counts for birds of prey are useful for monitoring long‐term population trends and examining year‐to‐year variations in abundance. We examined data from 2155 road surveys conducted from 2001...
Modeling round goby growth in Lake Michigan and Lake Huron with multi-model inference
Youjian Duan, Charles P. Madenjian, Yingming Zhao, Bin Huo
2021, Fisheries Research (236)
Although the round goby Neogobius melanostomus has become established throughout the Laurentian Great Lakes, a multi-model inference (MMI) approach toward characterizing round goby growth in the Laurentian Great Lakes has yet to applied using otolith-derived data. Further, spatial variation in round goby growth among...
Evaluation of simulated ground motions using probabilistic seismic demand analysis: CyberShake (ver. 15.12) simulations for Ordinary Standard Bridges
Jawad Fayaz, Sanaz Rezaeian, Farzin Zareian
2021, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering Journal (141)
There is a need for benchmarking and validating simulated ground motions in order for them to be utilized by the engineering community. Such validation may be geared towards a specific ground motion simulation method, a target engineering application, and a specific location; the validation presented herein focuses on a bridge...
Correcting the historical record for Kīlauea Volcano's 1832, 1868, and 1877 summit eruptions
Tim R. Orr, Richard W. Hazlett, Liliana G. DeSmither, James P. Kauahikaua, Ben Gaddis
2021, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research (410)
Three fissure eruptions are known to have occurred along the northeastern edge of Kīlauea's summit caldera in the 19th century—in the years 1832, 1868, and 1877. Modern portrayal of these eruptions on maps and in written sources indicates that the 1832...
Forest responses to last-millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity
Christine R. Rollinson, Andria Dawson, Ann M. Raiho, John W. Williams, Michael C. Dietze, Thomas Hickler, Stephen T. Jackson, Jason S. McLachlan, David J.P. Moore, Benjamin Poulter, Tristan Quaife, Jorg Steinkamp, Mathias Trachsel
2021, Ecology Letters (24) 498-508
Forecasts of future forest change are governed by ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, but ecosystem model projections are under-constrained by data at multidecadal and longer timescales. Here, we quantify ecosystem sensitivity to centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, by comparing dendroclimatic and pollen-inferred reconstructions of drought, forest composition and...
Freezing in a warming climate: Marked declines of a subnivean hibernator after a snow drought
Aaron N. Johnston, Roger G Christophersen, Erik A. Beever, Jason I. Ransom
2021, Ecology and Evolution (11) 1264-1279
Recent snow droughts associated with unusually warm winters are predicted to increase in frequency and affect species dependent upon snowpack for winter survival. Changes in populations of some cold‐adapted species have been attributed to heat stress or indirect effects on habitat from unusually warm summers, but little is known about...
A ground‐motion prediction model for shallow crustal earthquakes in Greece
David Boore, Jonathan P. Stewart, Andreas Skarlatoudis, Emel Seyhan, Basil Margaris, Nikos Theodoulidis, Emmanual Scordilis, Ionnis Kalogeras, Nikos Klimis, Nikos Melis
2021, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (111) 857-874
Using a recently completed database of uniformly processed strong‐motion data recorded in Greece, we derive a ground‐motion prediction model (GMPM) for horizontal‐component peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration, and 5% damped pseudoacceleration response spectra, at 105 periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. The equations were developed by modifying a global...
Lithium in groundwater used for drinking-water supply in the United States
Bruce D. Lindsey, Kenneth Belitz, Charles A. Cravotta III, Patricia Toccalino, Neil M. Dubrovsky
2021, Science of the Total Environment (767)
Lithium concentrations in untreated groundwater from 1464 public-supply wells and 1676 domestic-supply wells distributed across 33 principal aquifers in the United States were evaluated for spatial variations and possible explanatory factors. Concentrations nationwide ranged from <1 to 396 μg/L (median of 8.1) for public supply...
A unified model of crustal stress heterogeneity from borehole breakouts and earthquake focal mechanisms
Karen Luttrell, Jeanne L. Hardebeck
2021, JGR Solid Earth (126)
Observations of crustal stress orientation from the regional inversion of earthquake focal mechanisms often conflict with those from borehole breakouts, possibly indicating local stress heterogeneity, either laterally or with depth. To investigate this heterogeneity, we compiled SHmax estimates from previous studies for 57 near‐vertical boreholes with measured breakout azimuths across...
Shared functional traits explain synchronous changes in long‐term count trends of migratory raptors
Patricia Kaye T. Dumandan, Keith L. Bildstein, Laurie J. Goodrich, Andrii Zaiats, Trevor Caughlin, Todd E. Katzner
2021, Global Ecology and Biogeography (30) 640-650
AimAssessing long‐term shifts in faunal assemblages is important to understand the consequences of ongoing global environmental change. One approach to assess drivers of assemblage changes is to identify the traits associated with synchronous shifts in count trends among species. Our research identified traits influencing trends in 73 years...
Crossroads of highly pathogenic H5N1: overlap between wild and domestic birds in the Black Sea-Mediterranean impacts global transmission
Nichola J. Hill, Lacy M. Smith, Sabir B. Muzaffar, Jessica L. Nagel, Diann Prosser, Jeffery D. Sullivan, Kyle A. Spragens, Carlos A. DeMattos, Cecilia C. Demattos, Lu’ay El Sayed, Kiraz Erciyas-Yavuz, C. Todd Davis, Joyce Jones, Zoltan Kis, Ruben O. Donis, Scott H. Newman, John Y. Takekawa
2021, Virus Evolution (7)
Understanding transmission dynamics that link wild and domestic animals is a key element of predicting the emergence of infectious disease, an event that has highest likelihood of occurring wherever human livelihoods depend on agriculture and animal trade. Contact between poultry and wild birds is a key driver of the emergence...
Rupture process of the M6.5 Stanley, Idaho, earthquake inferred from seismic waveform and geodetic data
Frederick Pollitz, William C. Hammond, Charles Wicks
2021, Seismological Research Letters (92) 699-709
The 2020 M 6.5 Stanley, Idaho, earthquake produced rupture in the north of the active Sawtooth fault in the northern basin and range at depth, without any observable surface rupture. Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data yield several millimeters of static offsets out to ∼100 km from the...
The impacts of the 2015/2016 El Niño on California's sandy beaches
Schuyler A Smith, Patrick L. Barnard
2021, Geomorphology (377)
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is the most dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the Pacific. The 2015/2016 El Niño event was one of the strongest of the last 145 years, resulting in anomalously high wave energy across the U.S. West Coast, and record...
Geometry of obstacle marks at instream boulders-Integration of laboratory investigations and field observations
Oliver Schlomer, Paul E. Grams, Daniel D. Buscombe, Jurgen Herget
2021, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms (46) 659-679
Obstacle marks are instream bedforms, typically composed of an upstream frontal scour hole and a downstream sediment accumulation in the vicinity of an obstacle. Local scouring at infrastructure (e.g. bridge piers) is a well‐studied phenomenon in hydraulic engineering, while less attention is given to the time‐dependent...
Rapid sensitivity analysis for reducing uncertainty in landslide hazard assessments
Rex L. Baum
2021, Conference Paper, WLF 2020: Understanding and reducing landslide disaster risk
One of the challenges in assessing temporal and spatial aspects of landslide hazard using process-based models is estimating model input parameters, especially in areas where limited measurements of soil and rock properties are available. In an effort to simplify and streamline parameter estimation, development of a simple, rapid...
On the use of statistical analysis to understand submarine landslide processes and assess their hazard
Uri S. ten Brink, Eric L. Geist
2021, Book chapter, Understanding and reducing landslide disaster risk
Because of their inaccessibility, submarine landslides are typically studied individually and at great effort and expense to provide knowledge of the specific site conditions where these landslides occur. Statistical analysis of submarine landslide scars can offer generalized perspectives on the processes that initiate submarine landslides and can help toward hazard...
Identifying information gaps in predicting winter foraging habitat for juvenile Gulf Sturgeon
Leah L. Dale, James P. Cronin, Virginia Brink, Blair Tirpak, John M. Tirpak, William E. Pine III
2021, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society (150) 222-241
The Gulf Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi is an anadromous species that inhabits Gulf of Mexico coastal waters from Louisiana to Florida and is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Seasonal cues (e.g., freshwater discharge) determine the timing of spawning and migration and may influence the...
Snowpack signals in North American tree rings
Bethany L. Coulthard, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Gregory T. Pederson, Edward R Cook, Jeremy S. Littell, Dan J. Smith
2021, Environmental Research Letters (16)
Climate change has contributed to recent declines in mountain snowpack and earlier runoff, which in turn has intensified hydrological droughts in western North America. Climate model projections suggest that continued and severe snowpack reductions are expected over the 21st century, with profound consequences for ecosystems and human welfare. Yet the...
Spatial clustering of aftershocks impacts the performance of physics‐based earthquake forecasting models
Jeanne L. Hardebeck
2021, JGR Solid Earth (126)
I explore why physics‐based models of earthquake triggering rarely outperform statistical models in prospective testing, outside of limited spatial‐temporal windows. Pseudo‐prospective tests on suites of synthetic aftershock sequences show that a major factor is the level of unmodeled spatial clustering of the direct aftershocks triggered by the mainshock. The synthetic...
In‐situ mass balance estimates offshore Costa Rica
Joel Edwards, Jared W. Kluesner, Eli Silver, Rachel Lauer, Nathan Bangs, Brian Boston
2021, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems (22)
The Costa Rican convergent margin has been considered a type erosive margin, with erosional models suggesting average losses up to −153 km3/km/m.y. However, three‐dimensional (3D) seismic reflection and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program data collected offshore the Osa Peninsula images accretionary structures and vertical motions that conflict with the forearc basal erosion...
Canada goose survival and recovery rates in urban and rural areas of Iowa, USA
Benjamin Z. Luukkonen, Orrin E. Jones, Robert W. Klaver
2021, Journal of Wildlife Management (85) 283-292
Once extirpated from much of their North American range, temperate-breeding Canada geese (Branta canadensis maxima) have reached high abundance. As a result, focus has shifted from restoration to managing harvest and addressing human-goose conflict. Conflict persists or is increasing in urban areas throughout the Mississippi Flyway....
