Bayesian mapping of regionally grouped, sparse, univariate earth science data
Karl J. Ellefsen, Bronwen Wang, Margaret A. Goldman
2025, Techniques and Methods 7-C29
Some earth science data are naturally grouped by region, and it is often desirable to map these data by region. However, if there are only a few samples within each region, then the map should be smoothed in an appropriate way to mitigate the problems that arise from having only...
Learning complex spatial dynamics of wildlife diseases with machine learning-guided partial differential equations
Juan Francisco Mandujano Reyes, Gina Oh, Ian McGahan, Ting Fung Ma, Robin Russell, Daniel P. Walsh, Jun Zhu
2025, Environmental Data Science (4)
Emerging wildlife pathogens often display geographic variability due to landscape heterogeneity. Modeling approaches capable of learning complex, non-linear spatial dynamics of diseases are needed to rigorously assess and mitigate the effects of pathogens on wildlife health and biodiversity. We propose a novel machine learning (ML)-guided approach that leverages prior physical...
A partner-driven decision support model to inform the reintroduction of bull trout
Joseph R. Benjamin, Judith Neibauer, Hugh Anthony, Jose Vazquez, Ashley Rawhouser, Jason Dunham
2025, PLoS ONE (20)
Assessments of species reintroductions involve a series of complex decisions that include human perspectives and ecological contexts. Here, we present a reintroduction assessment involving bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) using a structured decision-making process. We approached this assessment by engaging partners representing public utilities, government agencies, and Tribes with shared interests...
Variability in hydrologic response to wildfire between snow zones in forested headwaters
Quinn Miller, David M Barnard, Megan Sears, John C. Hammond, Stephanie Kampf
2025, Hydrological Processes (39)
Rising temperatures and shifting fire regimes in the western United States are pushing fires upslope into areas of deep winter snowpack, where we have little knowledge of the likely hydrologic impacts of wildfire. We quantified differences in the timing and magnitude of stormflow responses to summer rainstorms among six catchments...
Leveraging detection uncertainty to estimate Renibacterium salmoninarum infection status among multiple tissues and assays
Tawni B.R. Firestone, Eric R. Fetherman, Kathryn P. Huyvaert, John D. Drennan, Rebecca E. Brock, Brooke Yeatts, Dana L. Winkelman
2025, PLoS ONE (20)
Effective disease surveillance relies on accurate pathogen testing and robust prevalence estimates. Diagnostic specificity (DSp), the probability that an uninfected animal tests negative, is high when false positives are low. Diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) is the probability an infected animal tests positive; higher DSe means fewer false negatives. However, sensitivity and...
Marginalizing time in habitat selection and species distribution models improves inference
Joseph Michael Eisaguirre, Layne G. Adams, Bridget Borg, Heather E. Johnson
2025, Diversity and Distributions (31)
AimRecent methodological advances for studying how animals move and use space with telemetry data have focused on fine-scale, more mechanistic inference. However, in many cases, researchers and managers remain interested in larger scale questions regarding species distribution and habitat use across study areas, landscapes, or seasonal ranges. Point processes offer...
Organic matter composition versus microbial source: Controls on carbon loss from fen wetland and permafrost soils
Sommer F. Starr, Kimberly Wickland, Anne M. Kellerman, Amy M. McKenna, Martin M. Kurek, Aubrey Miller, Ariana Karsaras, Thomas A. Douglas, Rachel Mackelprang, Ashley L. Shade, Robert G.M. Spencer
2025, JGR Biogeosciences (130)
Wetland and permafrost soils contain some of Earth's largest reservoirs of organic carbon, and these stores are threatened by rapid warming across the Arctic. Nearly half of northern wetlands are affected by permafrost. As these ecosystems warm, the cycling of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and the opportunities for microbial degradation...
No evidence for an active margin-spanning megasplay fault at the Cascadia Subduction Zone
Madeleine C. Lucas, Anna M. Ledeczi, Harold J. Tobin, Suzanne M. Carbotte, Janet Watt, Shuoshuo Han, Brian Boston, D. Jiang
2025, Seismica (2)
It has been previously proposed that a megasplay fault within the Cascadia accretionary wedge, spanning from offshore Vancouver Island to Oregon, has the potential to slip during a future Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. This hypothetical fault has major implications for tsunami size and arrival times and is included in disaster-planning...
Lessons in business recovery following the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence, Türkiye informed by women entrepreneurs
Ezgi Orhan, Anne Wein, Cynthia Kroll, Juan Fung
2025, Earthquake Spectra (41) 1910-1940
On 6 February 2023, Southern Türkiye was hit by devastating earthquakes, directly affecting over 14 million people in 11 cities, causing more than 50,000 deaths and the destruction of more than 800,000 buildings. This article goes beyond the physical damage imposed by the catastrophe to discuss the effects of the...
Interpreting a sudden population decline in a long-lived species (Malaclemys terrapin rhizophorarum)
Jacquelyn C. Guzy, Brian J. Smith, Mathew Denton, Michael Cherkiss, David Roche, Andrew G. Crowder, Kristen Hart
2025, Ecology and Evolution (15)
Long-term ecological studies are critical for providing insight into population dynamics and detecting population declines, particularly for species of conservation concern. However, spatiotemporal variation and logistical challenges make the identification of sudden population declines difficult. We conducted an in-water capture-mark-recapture study of mangrove diamond-backed terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin rhizophorarum) within Big...
Long-term patterns in growth of White Sturgeon in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River basin, California.
Michael C. Quist, Shannon Blackburn, Marta Ulaski, Zachary Jackson
2025, Frontiers in Freshwater Science (3)
Introduction: The Sacramento-San Joaquin River system (SSJ) of California includes both riverine, delta, and estuarine habitats and is among the most modified aquatic ecosystems in the United States. Water development projects in the system are associated with declines of many native species, including White Sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus.Methods: We used White Sturgeon...
Development of a two-stage life cycle model to inform the Trap and Haul Program for Coho salmon in the Lewis River, Washington
John Plumb, Russell W. Perry
2025, Preprint
Restoration of salmon populations in the upper Lewis River Basin depends on a trap-and-haul program owing to the Lewis River Hydroelectric Project (Project) operated by PacifiCorp and Cowlitz PUD (Utilities), which has been a barrier to salmon passage since the 1930s. Thus, sustaining the Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) population...
Using long-term ecological datasets to unravel the impacts of short-term meteorological disturbances on phytoplankton communities
V. Tran-Khac, J.P. Doubek, Vijay P. Patil, J.D. Stockwell, R. Adrian, C.-W. Change, G. Dur, A. Lewandowska, J.A. Rusak, N. Salmaso, D. Straile, S.J. Thackeray, P. Venail, R. Bhattacharya, J. Brentrup, R. Bruel, H. Feuchtmayr, M.O. Gessner, H-P. Grossart, B.W. Ibelings, S. Jacquet, S. MacIntyre, S.S. Matsuzaki, E. Nodine, P. Nõges, L.G. Rudstam, F. Soulignac, P. Verburg, P. Znachor, T. Zohary, O. Anneville
2025, Freshwater Biology (70)
Extreme meteorological events such as storms are increasing in frequency and intensity, but our knowledge of their impacts on aquatic ecosystems and emergent system properties is limited. Understanding the ecological impacts of storms on the dynamics of primary producers remains a challenge that needs to be addressed to assess...
Native Yellowstone cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus virginalis bouvieri growth and survival in a headwater stream primarily driven by warming stream temperatures, with non-native brown trout Salmo trutta posing an additional threat to survival
Kadie B. Heinle, Robert Al-Chokhachy, Adam Sepulveda, Christine E. Verhille
2025, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (82) 1-17
Warming rivers and interactions with non-native species impact salmonid species globally. Understanding how hydroclimatic conditions synergistically and independently interact with non-native species is critical for effectively managing salmonids into the future. We used a 10-year mark–recapture dataset to assess how native Yellowstone cutthroat trout (YCT) Oncorhynchus virginalis bouvieri and non-native brown trout Salmo...
Factors influencing landslide occurrence in low-relief formerly glaciated landscapes: Landslide inventory and susceptibility analysis in Minnesota, USA
Laura Triplett, Morena N Hammer, Stephen B. DeLong, Karen B. Gran, Carrie E. Jennings, Zachary T. Engle, Julie K. Bartley, Dylan J. Blumentritt, Andy Breckenridge, Stephanie Day, Melissa A. Kohout, Philip H. Larson, Jeni A. McDermott, Emilie Richard
2025, Natural Hazards (121) 11799-11827
In landscapes recently impacted by continental glaciation, landslides may occur where topographic relief has been generated by the drainage of glacial lakes and ensuing post-glacial fluvial network development into unconsolidated glacially derived sediments and exhumed bedrock. To investigate linkages among environmental variables, post-glacial landscape development, and landslides, we created a...
Modeling lamprey distribution using flow, geomorphology, and elevation in a terminal lake system
Jacob C. Dickey, Benjamin J. Clemens, Michael Dumelle, Melanie J. Davis
2025, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society (154) 322-338
ObjectiveLampreys are an ecologically important group of fishes. Several species are imperiled and lack key distribution and habitat data. The terminal Goose Lake Basin, U.S.A. is home to two such species, the Goose Lake Lamprey, Entosphenus sp. (formally undescribed), and the Pit-Klamath Brook Lamprey, E. lethophagus. Species distribution models (SDMs)...
Failure to meet the exchangeability assumption in Bayesian multispecies occupancy models: Implications for study design
Gavin G. Cotterill, Douglas A. Keinath, Tabitha A. Graves
2025, Preprint
Bayesian hierarchical models are ubiquitous in ecology. Random effect model structures are often employed that treat individual effects as deviations from larger population-level effects. In this way individuals are assumed to be "exchangeable" samples. Ecologists may address this exchangeability assumption intuitively, but might in certain modeling contexts ignore it altogether,...
Rhenium-osmium and oxygen isotope homogeneity during the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption and implications for basaltic magma storage
Emily A. Rhoads, Anton Kutyrev, Ilya N. Bindeman, Kendra J. Lynn, Frank A. Trusdell, Drew T. Downs, Hunter R. Edwards, Geoffrey W. Cook, James M.D. Day
2025, Bulletin of Volcanology (87)
Mauna Loa is one of the largest and most active volcanoes on Earth. The most recent eruption of Mauna Loa started on 27 November 2022, lasted for 13 days, and was preceded by the longest repose time of 38 years in its modern history. In this contribution, new trace- and highly siderophile-element...
Finding the hidden orogeny – The Proterozoic polymetamorphic history of northern New Mexico
Ian William Hillenbrand, Michael L Williams, Amy K. Gilmer, Karl E. Karlstrom, Michael J. Jercinovic, Daniel J Young
2025, Terra Nova (37) 304-315
Pressure–temperature–time-deformation histories provide key constraints on orogenic processes but can be affected by later overprinting. This is exemplified in the Proterozoic orogenic belts of southwestern Laurentia where competing tectonic models involve either a single progressive Mesoproterozoic event, the Picuris orogeny, or a polyorogenic history that also includes the ~1.65 Ga Mazatzal...
Stable occupancy of conservation-priority birds amid community shifts across 16 years on Iowa wetland easements
Lindsey A.W. Gapinski, Karen E. Kinkead, Adam K. Janke, Stephen J. Dinsmore, Todd Bishop, Anna Maureen Tucker
2025, Ornithological Applications (127)
Intensive agriculture in the Prairie Pothole Region of Iowa, USA has resulted in significant wetland drainage and wildlife population declines. However, easement programs are increasingly used to protect and restore wetlands and revitalize biodiversity. Short-term responses (i.e., 1–5 years) of birds to wetland restorations are well-documented, but...
Metal fingerprints of Eocene rhyolite magmas coincident with Carlin-type gold deposition in Nevada USA
Celestine N. Mercer, Hannah R. Babel, Cameron Mark Mercer, Albert H. Hofstra
2025, Minerals (15)
Eocene magmatic systems contemporaneous with world-class Carlin-type Au deposits in Nevada (USA) have been proposed by some researchers as a key ingredient for Au mineralization, though evidence conclusively demonstrating their genetic relationship remains tenuous. This study provides the first direct evidence of the pre-eruptive metal budget of volatile- and metal-charged...
Geomorphological evidence of near-surface ice at candidate landing sites in northern Amazonis Planitia, Mars
Erica Luzzi, Jennifer L. Heldmann, Kaj E. Williams, Giacomo Nodjoumi, Ariel Deutsch, Alexander Sehlke
2025, JGR Planets (130)
This work presents geomorphological analyses of an area at the boundary between Arcadia Planitia and northern Amazonis Planitia, situated in the northern mid-latitudes of Mars. Recent studies have indicated the presence of substantial volumes of near-surface excess ice in Arcadia Planitia, making this region a promising candidate for future human...
One-hundred fundamental, open questions to integrate methodological approaches in lake ice research
Joshua Culpepper, Sapna Sharma, Grant Gunn, Madeline R. Magee, Michael Frederick Meyer, Eric Anderson, Christoper D. Arp, Sarah Cooley, Wayana Dolan, Hilary A. Dugan, Claude R. Duguay, Benjamin C. Jones, Georgiy Kirillin, Robert Ladwig, Matti Lepparanta, Di Long, John J. Magnuson, Tamlin Pavelsky, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Dale M. Robertson, Bethel Steele, Manu Tom, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, R. Iesytn Woolway, Marguerite A. Xenopoulos, Xiao Yang
2025, Water Resources Research (616)
The rate of technological innovation within aquatic sciences outpaces the collective ability of individual scientists within the field to make appropriate use of those technologies. The process of in situ lake sampling remains the primary choice to comprehensively understand an aquatic ecosystem at local scales; however, the impact of climate change on lakes necessitates...
Reproductive characteristics and spawning potential ratio modeling of a vulnerable riverine specialist in the lower unchannelized Missouri River, USA
Lindsey A.P. LaBrie, Tanner L. Carlson, Jeff S. Wesner, Chelsey A. Pasbrig, Steven R. Chipps, Benjamin J. Schall
2025, Fisheries Research (286)
Reproductive characteristics for populations of imperiled, non-game species are not regularly studied but may be important for identifying factors associated with their population sustainability. Understanding reproductive traits of vulnerable species, particularly long-lived species, may provide insight for implementing management actions to respond to potential overharvest. This study aimed to assess...
Overview of The SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence
Rachel E. Abercrombie, Annemarie S. Baltay, Shanna Chu, Taka’aki Taira, Dino Bindi, Oliver S. Boyd, Xiaowei Chen, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Emma Devin, Douglas Dreger, William Ellsworth, Fan Wenyuan, Rebecca Harrington, Yihe Huang, Kilian Kemna, Meichen Liu, Adrien Oth, Grace Alexandra Parker, Colin Pennington, Matteo Picozzi, Christine J. Ruhl, Peter Shearer, Daniele Spallarossa, Daniel Trugman, Ian Vandevert, Qimin Wu, Clara Yoon, Ellen Yu, Gregory C. Beroza, Tom Eulenfeld, Trey Knudson, Kevin Mayeda, Paola Morasca, James S. Neely, Jorge I. Roman-Nieves, Claudio Satriano, Mariano Supino, William R. Walter, Ralph Archuleta, Gail Marie Atkinson, Giovanna Calderoni, Chen Ji, Hongfeng Yang, Jiewen Zhang
2025, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (115) 734-759
We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress‐drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress...
