Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design
Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Emily Howerton, Katie Yan, Harry Hochheiser, Erik T Rosenstrom, William J.M. Probert, Rebecca K. Borchering, Madhav V. Marathe, Bryan Lewis, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Shaun Truelove, Justin Lessler, Cecile Viboud
2024, Epidemics (47)
Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions and critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers and scientists. In the past decade, and especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, the field of epidemiology has seen substantial...
The 3D National Topography Model Call for Action—Part 1. The 3D Hydrography Program
Rebecca Anderson, Vicki Lukas, Stephen S. Aichele
2024, Circular 1519
The U.S. Geological Survey is initiating the 3D Hydrography Program (3DHP), the first systematic remapping of the Nation’s surface waters since the original 1:24,000-scale topographic mapping program was active from 1947 to 1992. Building on decades of experience maintaining the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD), the Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD), and...
The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting Ohio's economy
Charles E. Hickman
2024, Fact Sheet 2024-3017
IntroductionHigh-quality elevation data are proving to be a resource of great economic value in dealing with many important issues in Ohio. Current and accurate high-resolution elevation data support flood risk management, water quantity and quality assessment, precision farming, conservation planning, impervious-surface modeling, forest and other natural resources management, abandoned mine...
Mechanisms by which marine heatwaves impact seabirds
John F. Piatt, Mayumi L. Arimitsu, Sarah Ann Thompson, Rob Suryan, Rory Wilson, Kyle Elliott, W.J. Sydeman
2024, MEPS (737) 1-8
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are characterized by periods of extreme warming of local to basin-scale marine habitat. Effects of MHWs on some seabirds (e.g. mass die-offs) are well documented, but mechanisms by which seabirds respond to MHWs remain poorly understood. Following from a symposium at the 3rd World Seabird Conference, this Theme...
Decomposition of physical processes controlling EASM precipitation changes during the mid-Piacenzian: New insights into data–model integration
Yong Sun, Haibin Wu, Lixin Chen, Christian Stepanek, Yan Zhao, Ning Tan, Baohuang Su, Xiayu Yuan, Wenchao Zhang, Bo Liu, Stephen Hunter, Alan M Haywood, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Camille Contoux, Daniel J. Lunt, Aisling M Dolan, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Harry J. Dowsett, Julia C. Tindall, Michiel Baatsen, W. Richard Peltier, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Ulrich Salzmann, Wing-Le Chan, Zhongshi Zhang, Charles J. R. Williams, Gilles Ramstein
2024, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (7)
The mid-Piacenzian warm period (MPWP, ~3.264–3.025 Ma) has gained widespread interest due to its partial analogy with future climate. However, quantitative data–model comparison of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation during the MPWP is relatively rare, especially due to problems in decoding the imprint of physical processes to climate signals in...
Climate-influenced phenology of larval fish transport in a large lake
Spencer T. Gardner, Mark D. Rowe, Pengfei Xue, Xing Zhou, Peter Alsip, David Bunnell, Paris D. Collingsworth, Edward S. Rutherford, Tomas O. Hook
2024, Limnology and Oceanography Letters (9) 376-387
Elucidating physical transport phenologies in large lakes can aid understanding of larval recruitment dynamics. Here, we integrate a series of climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models to: (1) simulate hatch and transport of fish larvae throughout an illustrative large lake, (2) evaluate patterns of historic and potential future...
Bird community response to one decade of riparian restoration along the Colorado River delta in Mexico
Eduardo Gonzalez-Sargas, Timothy D Meehan, Osvel Hinojosa-Huerta, Steffany Villagomez-Palma, Alejandra Calvo-Fonseca, Christopher Dodge, Martha Gomez-Sapiens, Patrick B. Shafroth
2024, Ecological Engineering (205)
We assessed the response of breeding birds to one decade of riparian restoration in the Colorado River delta including active vegetation management since 2010 and various environmental water deliveries since 2014. Bird surveys were conducted from 2002 to 2021...
Change in growth and prey utilization for a native salmonid following invasion by an omnivorous minnow in an oligotrophic reservoir
Rachelle Carina Johnson, Tessa Julianne Code, Karl D. Stenberg, Jonathan H Mclean, Benjamin Lorenz Jensen, Marshal Hoy, David Beauchamp
2024, Hydrobiologia (851) 3767-3785
Aquatic invasive species can affect food web structure, native fish growth, and production, depending on the traits of the invasive species and the pre-invasion conditions of the ecosystem. Thermal tolerances and behavioral traits can further influence differential exploitation of resources shared between native and invasive species. An unauthorized introduction of...
Feature-based maximum entropy for geophysical properties of the seabed
D.P. Knobles, William S.. Hodgkiss, Jason Chaytor, Tracianne Neilsen, Ying-Tsong Lin
2024, Journal of the Acoustical Society of America (155) 3567
The coherent recombination of a direct and seabed reflected path is sensitive to the geophysical properties of the seabed. The concept of feature-based inversion is used in the analysis of acoustic data collected on a vertical line array (VLA) on the New England continental shelf break in about 200 m of...
A seismic nodal deployment to understand magmatic structure in the vicinity of the Pahala earthquake swarm
Helen Janiszewski, Ninfa Lucia Bennington, Jade Wight
2024, Seismological Research Letters (95) 3082-3092
In summer-fall 2022, 80 three-component SmartSolo IGU-BD3C-5 nodal seismometers were deployed surrounding the Pāhala seismic swarm on the Island of Hawaiʻi, with the goal of improving seismicity catalogs, and seismic velocity images of the crust and upper mantle in this region. The Pāhala swarm, located south of Mauna Loa and...
Development of high surface area organosilicate nanoparticulate thin films for use in sensing hydrophobic compounds in sediment and water
Sangho Bok, Venumadhav R. Korampally, Jacob K. Stanley, Keshab Gangopadhyay, Shubhra Gangopadhyay, Jeffery A. Steevens
2024, Biosensors (14)
The scope of this study was to apply advances in materials science, specifically the use of organosilicate nanoparticles as a high surface area platform for passive sampling of chemicals or pre-concentration for active sensing in multiple-phase complex environmental media. We have developed a novel nanoporous organosilicate (NPO) film as an...
Predicting the odds of chronic wasting disease with Habitat Risk software
W. David Walter, Brenda J. Hanley, Cara E. Them, Corey I. Mitchell, James Kelly, Daniel Grove, Nicholas Hollingshead, Rachel C. Abbott, Krysten L. Schuler
2024, Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology (49)
Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy that was first detected in captive cervids in Colorado, United States (US) in 1967, but has since spread into free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) across the US and Canada as well as to Scandinavia and South Korea. In some areas, the...
Integrating presence-only and detection/non-detection data to estimate distributions and expected abundance of difficult-to-monitor species on a landscape-scale
Joshua P. Twining, Angela K. Fuller, Catherine C. Sun, Camilo A. Calderon-Acevedo, Matthew D. Schlesinger, Melanie Berger, David Kramer, Jacqueline L. Frair
2024, Journal of Applied Ecology (61) 1441-1459
Estimating species distribution and abundance is foundational to effective management and conservation.Using an integrated species distribution model that combines presence-only data from various sources with detection/non-detection data from structured surveys, we estimated the distribution and expected abundance of three difficult-to-monitor mammals of management concern across New York State, namely,...
Avian communities respond to plant and landscape composition in actively revegetated floodplains of the Colorado River delta in Mexico
Eduardo Gonzalez-Sargas, Martha Gomez-Sapiens, Osvel Hinojosa-Huera, Steffany Villagomez-Palma, Alejandra Calvo-Fonseca, Joanna Grand, Timothy D. Meehan, Christopher Dodge, Pamela L. Nagler, Carlos Restrepo-Giraldo, Carlos Nieblas, Angela Melendez, Roberto Real Rangel, Patrick B. Shafroth
2024, Ecological Engineering (205)
We examined the influence of local habitat factors such as plant community composition and species cover, and landscape habitat factors (e.g., land cover types) on the composition of the avian community in an arid-region large river delta (Colorado River)....
Enhancing assessments of coastal wetland migration potential with sea-level rise: Accounting for uncertainty in elevation data, tidal data, and future water levels
Nicholas Enwright, Michael Osland, Hana R. Thurman, Claire E. McHenry, William C. Vervaeke, Brett Patton, Davina Passeri, Jason M. Stoker, Richard Day, Bethanie M. Simons
2024, Estuaries and Coasts (47) 1166-1183
Sea-level rise rates are predicted to surpass rates of wetland vertical adjustment in the coming decades in many areas, increasing the potential for wetland submergence. Information on where wetland migration is possible can help natural resource managers for planning land acquisition or enhancing habitat connectivity to...
Remote sensing evapotranspiration in ensemble-based framework to enhance cascade routing and re-infiltration concept in integrated hydrological model applied to support decision making
Mostafa Gomaa Daoud, Jeremy T. White, Eric D. Morway, Christiaan van der Tol, Maciek W. Lubczynski
2024, Journal of Hydrology (637)
Integrated hydrological models (IHMs) help characterize the complexity of surface–groundwater interactions. The cascade routing and re-infiltration (CRR) concept, recently applied to a MODFLOW 6 IHM, improved conceptualization and simulation of overland flow processes. The CRR controls the transfer of rejected infiltration...
Assessing the sustainability of Pacific walrus harvest in a changing environment
Devin Johnson, Joseph Michael Eisaguirre, Rebecca L. Taylor, Erik Andersen, Joel Garlich-Miller
2024, Preprint
Harvest sustainability is a primary goal of wildlife management and conservation, and in a changing world it is increasingly important to consider environmental drivers of population dynamics alongside harvest in cohesive management plans. This is particularly pertinent for harvested species that are acutely experiencing effects of climate change. The Pacific...
Treed Gaussian processes for animal movement modeling
Camille J. Rieber, Trevor J. Hefley, David A. Haukos
2024, Ecology and Evolution (14)
Wildlife telemetry data may be used to answer a diverse range of questions relevant to wildlife ecology and management. One challenge to modeling telemetry data is that animal movement often varies greatly in pattern over time, and current continuous-time modeling approaches to handle such...
USGS invasive carp database management & integration support
Marybeth K. Brey, Andrea K. Fritts
2024, Report, 2023 Monitoring and response plan
Invasive carp tracking, monitoring, and contracted removal will continue throughout the Upper IWW system as part of an adaptive management effort to mitigate, control, and contain invasive carp. To help facilitate these actions, there is a need to compile and analyze data from the multitude of partner agencies that are...
Climate change
David Bickford, Guinevere O.U. Wogan, Deanna H. Olson, K.S. Seshadri, Mark C. Urban, Ana Carnaval, John Measey, Jodi J.L. Rowley, Sean Rovito, Rudolf von May, Susan Walls
Sally Wren, Arnael Borzee, Ruth Marcec-Greaves, Ariadne Angulo, editor(s)
2024, Book chapter, Amphibian conservation action plan: A status review and roadmap for global amphibian conservation
Amphibian ecology and distribution are strongly correlated with climate. Regional patterns of amphibian biodiversity are intimately linked to temperature, evapotranspiration rate, and clines in humidity. While amphibians are and will continue to be adversely affected by recent and projected changes in climate, research suggests that adaptation may happen more slowly...
Applying local and global sensitivity analysis to inform bigheaded carp management
Richard A. Erickson, Benjamin J. Marcek, Hannah Mann Thompson, Brian Schoenung, John M. Dettmers, Michael N. Fienen
2024, Journal of Fish and Wildlife Managment (15) 112-126
Natural resource managers commonly use population-level models to aid in understanding the status of target populations or the potential implications of management actions. Sensitivity analyses, specifically, local sensitivity analysis (LSA) and global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exist as tools to improve understanding of these models, the importance of specific parameters to...
Surficial geology and Quaternary fault map of the Las Vegas Valley, Clark County, Nevada
Seth Dee, Alan R. Ramelli, Craig M dePolo, Shannon A. Mahan
2024, Map 193
The Surficial Geology and Quaternary Fault Map of the Las Vegas Valley, Clark County, Nevada is a 1:50,000-scale compilation of published 1:24,000-scale geologic maps integrated with new field and desktop mapping. This geologic map compilation and GIS database are part of a broader study on the Quaternary faults in the Las Vegas...
A genomic hotspot of diversifying selection and structural change in the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus)
Robert S. Cornman
2024, PeerJ (12)
BackgroundPrevious work found that numerous genes positively selected within the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) lineage are physically clustered in regions of conserved synteny. Here I further validate and expand on those finding utilizing an updated L. cinereus genome assembly and additional bat species as well as other tetrapod outgroups.MethodsA chromosome-level...
Towards entity-aware conditional variational inference for heterogeneous time-series prediction: An application to hydrology
Rahul Ghosh, Wallace Mcaliley, Arvind Renganathan, Michael Steinbach, Christopher Duffy, Vipin Kumar
2024, Conference Paper, Proceedings of the 2024 SIAM International Conference on Data Mining (SDM)
Many environmental systems (e.g., hydrology basins) can be modeled as entity whose response (e.g., streamflow) depends on drivers (e.g., weather) conditioned on their characteristics (e.g., soil properties). We introduce Entity-aware Conditional Variational Inference (EA-CVI), a novel probabilistic inverse modeling approach, to deduce entity characteristics from observed driver-response...
Fire effects on geomorphic processes
Luke McGuire, Brian A. Ebel, Francis K. Rengers, Diana Vieira, Petter Nyman
2024, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment (5) 486-503
Fire-induced geomorphic changes, such as enhanced erosion and debris-flow activity, are expected to increase with climate change owing to increases in fire activity and rainfall intensification. In this Review, we summarize how landscape attributes, rainfall and burn severity influence post-fire geomorphic responses over a range of temporal and spatial scales....
