Linking mosquito surveillance to dengue fever through Bayesian mechanistic modeling
Clinton B. Leach, Jennifer A. Hoeting, Kim M. Pepin, Alvaro E. Eiras, Mevin Hooten, Colleen T. Colleen T. Webb
2020, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases (14) 1-20
Our ability to effectively prevent the transmission of the dengue virus through targeted control of its vector, Aedes aegypti, depends critically on our understanding of the link between mosquito abundance and human disease risk. Mosquito and clinical surveillance data are widely collected, but linking them requires a modeling framework that accounts...
Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H Nisancioglu, Alan M Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohman, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E Sohl, Mark Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel Baatsen, Anna S von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, A. Abe-Ouchi, W-L Chan, Youichi Kamae, Chris M Brierley
2020, Climate of the Past (16) 2325-2341
Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived...
Development of a novel framework for modeling field-scale conservation effects of depressional wetlands in agricultural landscapes
Owen P. McKenna, Javier M. Osorio, Katherine D. Behrman, Luca Doro, David M. Mushet
2020, Journal of Soil and Water Conservation (6) 695-703
The intermixed cropland, grassland, and wetland ecosystems of the upper mid-western United States combine to provide a suite of valuable ecological services. Grassland and wetland losses in the upper midwestern United States have been extensive, but government-funded conservation programs have protected and restored hundreds of thousands...
Origin and properties of hydrothermal tremor at Lone Star Geyser, Yellowstone National Park, USA
Avinash Nayak, Michael Manga, Shaul Hurwitz, Atsuko Namiki, Phillip B. Dawson
2020, Journal of Geophysical Research (125)
Geysers are rare geologic features that intermittently discharge liquid water and steam driven by heating and decompression boiling. The cause of variability in eruptive styles and the associated seismic signals are not well understood. Data collected from five broadband seismometers at Lone Star Geyser, Yellowstone National...
Seismic attenuation monitoring of a critically stressed San Andreas fault
Luca Malagnini, Thomas E. Parsons
2020, Geophysical Research Letters (47)
We show that seismic attenuation ( ) along the San Andreas fault (SAF) at Parkfield correlates with the occurrence of moderate‐to‐large earthquakes at local and regional distances. Earthquake‐related anomalies are likely caused by changes in permeability from dilatant static stress changes, damage by strong...
Landscape and climatic influences on actual evapotranspiration and available water using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) Model in eastern Bernalillo County, New Mexico, 2015
Kyle R. Douglas-Mankin, Ryan J. McCutcheon, Aurelia C. Mitchell, Gabriel B. Senay
2020, Scientific Investigations Report 2020-5095
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bernalillo County Public Works Division, conducted a 1-year study in 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of evapotranspiration (ET) and available water within the East Mountain area in Bernalillo County, New Mexico. ET and available water vary spatiotemporally because of...
Ensemble ShakeMaps for magnitude 9 earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone
Erin A. Wirth, Alex R. Grant, Nasser A. Marafi, Arthur D. Frankel
2020, Seismological Research Letters (92) 199-211
We develop ensemble ShakeMaps for various magnitude 9 (M">MM 9) earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust. Ground‐shaking estimates are based on 30 M">MM 9...
Baseflow age distributions and depth of active groundwater flow in a snow‐dominated mountain headwater basin
Rosemary W.H. Carroll, Andrew H. Manning, Richard G. Niswonger, David W Marchetti, Kenneth H. Williams
2020, Water Resources Research (56)
Deeper flows through bedrock in mountain watersheds could be important, but lack of data to characterize bedrock properties limits understanding. To address data scarcity, we combine a previously published integrated hydrologic model of a snow‐dominated, headwater basin of the Colorado River with a new method for dating baseflow age using...
Measured and calculated nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations and loads at the W.P. Franklin Lock and Dam, S-79, south Florida, 2014-17
Amanda Booth
2020, Open-File Report 2020-1094
The U.S. Geological Survey monitored dissolved nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen (N) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and calculated loads of these constituents at the W.P. Franklin Lock and Dam (S-79) from April 2014 to December 2017. Flows from Lake Okeechobee controlled by S-77, S-78 and S-79 affect water...
Water temperature controls for regulated canyon-bound rivers
Bryce A. Mihalevich, Bethany Neilson, Caleb A. Buahin, Charles B. Yackulic, John C. Schmidt
2020, Water Resources Research (56)
Many canyon‐bound rivers have been dammed and downstream flow and water temperatures modified. Climate change is expected to cause lower storage in reservoirs and warmer release temperatures, which may further alter downstream flow and thermal regimes. To anticipate potential future changes, we first need to understand the dominant heat transfer...
Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes
James F Bramante, Murray Ford, Paul Kench, Andrew Ashton, Michael Toomey, Richard Sullivan, Kristopher Karnauskas, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Jeffrey P. Donnelly
2020, Nature Geoscience (13) 806-811
The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of the influence of climate on tropical cyclone behaviour is restricted by the short historical record and the sparseness of prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North...
Along-margin variations in breakup volcanism at the Eastern North American Margin
John A. Greene, Masako Tominaga, Nathaniel C. Miller
2020, Journal of Geophysical Research (125)
We model the magnetic signature of rift-related volcanism to understand the distribution and volumeofmagmatic activity that occurred during the breakup of Pangaea and early Atlantic opening at the Eastern North American Margin (ENAM).Along-strike variations in the amplitude and character of the prominent East Coast Magnetic Anomaly (ECMA) suggest that the...
Effect of stream permanence on predation risk of lotic crayfish by riparian predators
A.N. Yarra, Daniel D. Magoulick
2020, Southeastern Naturalist (19)-673
Given the importance of crayfish in stream ecosystems, gaining insight into the role of stream permanence in maintaining predator–prey interactions is critical. Our objectives were to determine the influence of stream permanence and season on crayfish predation and assess the role of stream permanence and...
Improving the ability to include freshwater wetland plants in process-based models
Amber S. Williams, David M. Mushet, Megan Lang, Gregory W. McCarty, Jill A. Shaffer, Sharon N. Kahara, Mari-Vaughn V. Johnson, James R. Kiniry
2020, Journal of Soil and Water Conservation (75) 704-712
Considerable effort and resources have been placed into conservation programs designed to reduce or alleviate negative environmental effects of crop production and into evaluation of the benefits of these programs. Wetlands are an important source of ecosystem services, but modeling wetland plants is an emerging science....
Contemporary fire regimes provide a critical perspective on restoration needs in the Mexico-United States borderlands
Miguel L. Villarreal, Jose M. Iniguez, Aaron D. Flesch, Jamie S. Sanderlin, Citlali Cortes Montano, Caroline Rose Conrad, Sandra L. Haire
2020, Air, Soil and Water Research (13) 1-18
The relationship between people and wildfire has always been paradoxical: fire is an essential ecological process and management tool, but can also be detrimental to life and property. Consequently, fire regimes have been modified throughout history through both intentional burning to promote benefits and active suppression to reduce risks. Reintroducing...
Recent and projected precipitation and temperature changes in the Grand Canyon area with implications for groundwater resources
Fred D. Tillman, Subhrendu Gangopadhyay, Tom Pruitt
2020, Scientific Reports (10)
Groundwater is a critical resource in the Grand Canyon region, supplying nearly all water needs for residents and millions of visitors. Additionally, groundwater discharging at hundreds of spring locations in and near Grand Canyon supports important ecosystems in this mostly arid environment. The security of groundwater supplies is of critical...
Using remote sensing products to predict recovery of vegetation across space and time following energy development
Adrian P. Monroe, Cameron L. Aldridge, Michael S. O’Donnell, Daniel Manier, Collin Homer, Patrick J. Anderson
2020, Ecological Indicators (110)
Using localized studies to understand how ecosystems recover can create uncertainty in recovery predictions across landscapes. Large archives of remote sensing data offer opportunities for quantifying the spatial and temporal factors influencing recovery at broad scales and predicting recovery. For example, energy production is a widespread and expanding land use...
Trends in recent historical and projected climate data for the Colorado River Basin and potential effects on groundwater availability
Fred D. Tillman, Subhrendu Gangopadhyay, Tom Pruitt
2020, Scientific Investigations Report 2020-5107
Understanding recent historical and projected trends in precipitation and temperature in the Colorado River Basin, and estimating what the projected changes in these climate parameters may mean for groundwater resources in the region, is important for water managers and policymakers to sustainably manage water resources in the basin. Historical (1896–2019)...
Alkalic-type epithermal gold deposit model
Karen D. Kelley, Paul G. Spry, Virginia T. McLemore, David L. Fey, Eric D. Anderson
2020, Scientific Investigations Report 2010-5070-R
This report summarizes the primary characteristics of alkalic-type epithermal gold (Au) deposits and provides an updated descriptive model. These deposits, primarily of Mesozoic to Neogene age, are among the largest epithermal gold deposits in the world. Considered a subset of low-sulfidation epithermal deposits, they are spatially and genetically linked to...
Spatial variability in seasonal snowpack trends across the Rio Grande headwaters (1984 - 2017)
Graham A. Sexstone, Colin A. Penn, Glen Liston, Kelly Gleason, C. David Moeser, David W. Clow
2020, Journal of Hydrometeorology (21) 2713-2733
This study evaluated the spatial variability of trends in simulated snowpack properties across the Rio Grande headwaters of Colorado using the SnowModel snow evolution modeling system. SnowModel simulations were performed using a grid resolution of 100 m and 3-hourly time step over a 34-yr period (1984–2017). Atmospheric forcing was provided...
The firn meltwater Retention Model Intercomparison Project (RetMIP): Evaluation of nine firn models at four weather station sites on the Greenland ice sheet
Baptiste Vandecrux, Ruth Mottram, Peter Langen, Robert Fausto, Martin Olesen, C. Max Stevens, Vincent Verjans, Amber Lee, Stefan Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Sergey S. Marchenko, Ward van Pelt, Colin R. Meyer, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Achim Heilig, Samira Samimi, Shawn J. Marshall, Horst Machguth, Michael J. MacFerrin, Masashi Niwano, Olivia L. Miller, Clifford I. Voss, Jason E. Box
2020, The Cryosphere (14) 3785-3810
Perennial snow, or firn, covers 80 % of the Greenland ice sheet and has the capacity to retain surface meltwater, influencing the ice sheet mass balance and contribution to sea-level rise. Multilayer firn models are traditionally used to simulate firn processes and estimate meltwater retention. We present, intercompare and evaluate outputs...
Short-term impact of sediment addition on plants and invertebrates in a southern California salt marsh
Kaelin J McAtee, Karen M. Thorne, Christine R Whitcraft
2020, PLoS ONE (15)
The implementation and monitoring of management strategies is integral to protect coastal marshes from increased inundation and submergence under sea-level rise. Sediment addition is one such strategy in which sediment is added to marshes to raise relative elevations, decrease tidal inundation, and enhance ecosystem processes. This...
Comparison of groundwater storage changes from GRACE satellites with monitoring and modeling of major U.S. aquifers
Ashraf Rateb, Bridget R. Scanlon, Donald R. Pool, Alexander Y. Sun, Zizhan Zhang, Jianli Chen, Brian R. Clark, Dianna M. Crilley, Connor J. Haugh, Christopher M. Hobza, Mary C Hill, Virginia L. McGuire, Meredith Reitz, Hannes Muller Schmied Schmied, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Sean Swenson, David Wiese, Youlong Xia, Wesley O. Zell
2020, Water Resources Research (56)
GRACE satellite data are widely used to estimate groundwater storage (GWS) changes in aquifers globally; however, comparisons with GW monitoring and modeling data are limited. Here we compared GWS changes from GRACE over 15 yr (2002–2017) in 14 major U.S. aquifers with groundwater-level (GWL) monitoring data in ~23,000...
Understanding the storage conditions and fluctuating eruption style of a young monogenetic volcano: Blue Lake crater (<3 ka), High Cascades, Oregon
Emily Renee Johnson, Katharine V. Cashman
2020, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research (408)
Blue Lake crater (<3 ka) is monogenetic volcano that produced one of the youngest eruptions in the central Oregon Cascades. Understanding monogenetic volcano behavior – from storage through eruption – is imperative in planning for future eruptions. Here we combine physical volcanology and geochemistry to determine the pre-eruptive storage conditions, ascent...
Evidence for an established population of tegu lizards Salvator merianae in southeastern Georgia, USA
Daniel Haro, Lance McBrayer, John B Jenson, James Gillis, Lea R. Bonewell, Melia Gail Nafus, Stephen E. Greiman, Robert Reed, Amy A. Yackel Adams
2020, Southeastern Naturalist (19) 649-662
Documenting emergence of invasive species in new areas is vital to understanding spatiotemporal patterns of invasions, propagule pressure, and the risk of establishment. Salvator merianae (Argentine Giant Tegu) has established multiple unconnected populations in southern and Central Florida, and additional sightings have been reported elsewhere in the state. In 2018,...
