Forecasting water levels using the ConvLSTM algorithm in the Everglades, USA
Raidan Bassah, Gerald A. Corzo Perez, Biswa Bhattacharya, Saira Haider, Eric D. Swain, Nicholas Aumen
2025, Journal of Hydrology (652)
Forecasting water levels in complex ecosystems like wetlands can support effective water resource management, ecological conservation, and understanding surface and groundwater hydrology. Predictive models can be used to simulate the complex interactions among natural processes, hydrometeorological factors, and human activities. The Greater Everglades in the USA is a well-known example...
Accurate simulation of flow through dipping aquifers with MODFLOW 6 using enhanced cell connectivity
Alden M. Provost, Kerry Bardot, Christian D. Langevin, James L. McCallum
2025, Groundwater (63) 399-408
In simulations of groundwater flow through dipping aquifers, layers of model cells are often “deformed” to follow the top and bottom elevations of the aquifers. When this approach is used in MODFLOW, adjacent cells within the same model layer are vertically offset from one another, and the standard conductance-based (two-point)...
Climate change and future water availability in the United States
Martha A. Scholl, Gregory J. McCabe, Carolyn G. Olson, Kathryn Powlen
2025, Professional Paper 1894-E
The steady rise in global temperature as a result of human activity is causing changes in Earth’s water cycle. The balance of water stored within and moving between vapor, liquid, and frozen states in the water cycle is shifting, with consequences for water availability that include increases in drought, fire...
Water use across the conterminous United States, water years 2010–20
Laura Medalie, Amy E. Galanter, Anthony J. Martinez, Althea A. Archer, Carol L. Luukkonen, Melissa A. Harris, Jonathan V. Haynes
2025, Professional Paper 1894-D
Withdrawals of water for human use are fundamental to the evaluation of the Nation’s water availability. This chapter provides an analysis of public supply, crop irrigation, and thermoelectric power water use for the conterminous United States (CONUS) during water years 2010–20. These three categories account for about 90 percent of...
Status of water-quality conditions in the United States, 2010–20
Melinda L. Erickson, Olivia L. Miller, Matthew J. Cashman, James R. Degnan, James E. Reddy, Anthony J. Martinez, Elmera Azadpour
2025, Professional Paper 1894-C
Degradation of water quality can make water harmful or unusable for humans and ecosystems. Although many studies have assessed the effect of individual constituents or narrow suites of constituents on freshwater systems, no consistent, comprehensive assessment exists over the wide range of water-quality effects on water availability. Using published studies,...
Water supply in the conterminous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, water years 2010–20
Galen Gorski, Edward G. Stets, Martha A. Scholl, James R. Degnan, John R. Mullaney, Amy E. Galanter, Anthony J. Martinez, Julie Padilla, Jacob H. LaFontaine, Hayley R. Corson-Dosch, Allen Shapiro
2025, Professional Paper 1894-B
We present an assessment of water supply across the conterminous United States (CONUS), Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico covering water years 2010–20. Our analysis drew on two national hydrologic models, the National Hydrologic Model Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System and the Weather Research and Forecasting model hydrologic modeling system. Both models produced...
The Center for the Advancement of Population Assessment Methodology (CAPAM): A perspective on the first 10 years
Mark N. Maunder, Paul R. Crone, Brice X. Semmens, Juan L. Valero, Lynn Waterhouse, Richard D. Methot, Andre E. Punt
2025, Fisheries Research (281)
The Center for the Advancement of Population Assessment Methodology (CAPAM) was established in 2013, envisioned as an institute that could conduct, organize, and communicate stock assessment research with the aim of benefiting fisheries assessment efforts internationally. CAPAM’s activities have focused on its workshop series and consequent special issues in Fisheries Research....
Endemic and invasive species: A history of distributional trends in the fish fauna of the lower New River drainage
Stuart A. Welsh, Daniel A. Cincotta, Nathaniel V. Owens, Jay R. Stauffer Jr.
2025, Water (17)
Invasive species are often central to conservation efforts, particularly when concerns involve potential impacts on rare, endemic native species. The lower New River drainage of the eastern United States is a watershed that warrants conservation assessment, as the system is naturally depauperate of native fish species and it is nearly...
Ecosystem drivers of freshwater mercury bioaccumulation are context-dependent: Insights from continental-scale modeling
Christopher James Kotalik, James Willacker, Jeff S. Wesner, Branden L. Johnson, Colleen M. Flanagan Pritz, Sarah J. Nelson, David M. Walters, Collin A. Eagles-Smith
2025, Environmental Science and Technology (59)
Significant variation in mercury (Hg) bioaccumulation is observed across the diversity of freshwater ecosystems in North America. While there is support for the major drivers of Hg bioaccumulation, the relative influence of different external factors can vary widely among waterbodies, which makes predicting Hg risk across large spatial scales particularly...
Hybrid coral reef restoration can be a cost-effective nature-based solution to provide protection to vulnerable coastal populations
Curt D. Storlazzi, Borja Reguero, Kristen C. Alkins, James B. Shope, Aaron Cole, Camila Gaido-Lassarre, Shay Viehman, Michael W. Beck
2025, Science Advances (11)
Coral reefs can mitigate flood damages by providing protection to tropical coastal communities whose populations are dense, growing fast, and have predominantly lower-middle income. This study provides the first fine-scale, regionally modeled valuations of how flood risk reductions associated with hybrid coral reef restoration could benefit people, property, and economic...
A Colorado Front Range grassland exhibits decreasing dominance of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) over time
Janet S. Prevey, Timothy R. Seastedt
2025, Ecosphere (16)
Causes, consequences, and potentials for recovery from invasions by the invasive annual grass, cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), in western North America have been extensively documented. The vast majority of these studies have come from regions where yearly precipitation is dominated by “winter-wet” patterns, but this species has also demonstrated its ability...
Enhanced hydrologic monitoring and characterization of groundwater drainage features
Martin A. Briggs
2025, Nature Water (3) 2-3
Groundwater drains to the land surface, generating the baseflow of streams, lakes, and wetlands. The hydrologic resilience of baseflow during prolonged dry periods and after disturbance can be assessed with evolving remote sensing analysis paired with localized monitoring of groundwater drainage features and creative model calibration strategies....
Bayesian model selection to investigate meaningful spatial scales
Andrew Hoegh, Kathryn Irvine, Katharine M. Banner, de Wit. Luz, Brian Reichert
2025, Preprint
Ecologists and other statistical practitioners with access to high-resolution spatial data lack guidance on best approaches for discerning meaningful spatial scales for environmental covariates which is necessary when spatial factors influence environmental processes. Recently developed methods have attempted to automate investigating spatial scales for covariates by evaluating models for which...
Review of the Lake Washington Ship Canal and Ballard Locks model, Seattle, Washington, 2014–20
Annett B. Sullivan, Anya C. Leach
2025, Open-File Report 2024-1078
Executive SummaryThe Hiram M. Chittenden (Ballard) Locks and Lake Washington Ship Canal connect freshwater Lake Washington and saline Shilshole Bay of Puget Sound in Seattle, Washington. The locks and canal allow for ships to traverse this reach. Anadromous salmonids also migrate through, transitioning between saline and freshwater environments, and making...
Local water use and climate drive water stress over the conterminous United States with substantial impacts to fish species of conservation concern
Edward G. Stets, Olivia L. Miller, Matthew J. Cashman, Kathryn Powlen, Anthony J. Martinez, Althea A. Archer, Julie Padilla
2025, Preprint
There is a growing need for consistent, large-scale estimates of water availability to identify and avoid potential conflicts among human and ecosystem uses of water. We present an assessment of water limitation, defined as the monthly balance (difference) between water supply (ws) and human consumptive water use (wc), for the...
Understanding and predicting infection dynamics for an endangered amphibian using long-term surveys of wild and translocated frogs
Talisin T. Hammond, Adam R. Backlin, Elizabeth Gallegos, Debra M. Shier, Ronald R. Swaisgood, Robert N. Fisher
2025, Biological Conservation (301)
Amphibians are a prominent component of Earth's sixth mass extinction and the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a primary driver of declines. Although Bd dynamics are well studied, the environmental drivers, exacerbating risk factors, and value of conservation interventions like translocations remain challenging to predict. Here, we present results from two...
Integrated Hydro-terrestrial Modeling 2.0: Progress and path forward on building a national capability
Katherine Skalak, Nathalie Voisin, Patrick Read, Ying Fan Reinfelder
2025, Report
Growing societal pressures on U.S. water resources and the challenges inherent in understanding how future water risks may evolve are driving major investments to improve our knowledge of the integrated water cycle. This improved understanding as captured in innovations in our data, knowledge, and modeling capabilities, needs to be accelerated...
Reply to, “Comment on ‘The 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake: Relic railroad offset reveals rupture,’ by Roger Bilham and Susan E. Hough”
Roger Bilham, Susan E. Hough
2025, The Seismic Record (5) 23-34
We welcome this opportunity to respond to Pratt et al. (2024) (hereinafter P24). Bilham and Hough (2023) proposed a “first-cut” elastic deformation model for the 1886 earthquake, a quantitative source model constrained by identified coseismic constraints. A key observation was the measurement of a lateral offset of...
Modelling and mapping burn severity of prescribed and wildfires across the southeastern United States (2000-2022)
Melanie K. Vanderhoof, Casey Elizabeth Menick, Joshua J. Picotte, Kevin Robertson, Holly Nowell, Chris Matechik, Todd Hawbaker
2025, International Journal of Wildland Fire (34)
BackgroundThe southeastern United States (‘Southeast’) experiences high levels of fire activity, but the preponderance of small and prescribed fires means that existing burn severity products are incomplete across the region.AimsWe developed and applied a burn severity model across the Southeast to enhance our understanding of regional...
Validation of the U37K' paleotemperature proxy in the South Brazilian Bight from core-top sediments
Felipe Stanchak, Julie N. Richey, Amanda Gerotto, Amelia Shevenell, Marcia C. Bicego, Felipe A. Toledo, Michel M. de Mahiques, Renata H. Nagai
2025, Organic Geochemistry (200)
The paleothermometer based on the alkenone unsaturation index (U37K′">U37K′) is often used to reconstruct past sea surface temperatures (SST). In the SW Atlantic Ocean, however, a limited understanding of the seasonal and depth distribution of coccolithophores,...
Widespread occurrence of former anhydrite phenocrysts in Laramide-age magmas related to porphyry-skarn Cu mineralization at Santa Rita and Hanover-Fierro, New Mexico, USA
Andreas Audétat, Jia Chang, Sean Patrick Gaynor
2025, Journal of Petrology (66)
Reports of magmatic anhydrite are relatively rare, with only ~30 occurrences documented worldwide so far. However, magmatic anhydrite saturation is difficult to recognize because anhydrite decomposes rapidly in near-surface environments. In most cases, only anhydrite inclusions shielded within other phenocryst phases were able to survive. Alternatively, since anhydrite phenocrysts preserved...
Predictions of elk and chronic wasting disease dynamics at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and surrounding areas
Paul C. Cross, Jonathan D. Cook, Eric K. Cole
2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5119-B
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Elk Refuge (NER) in Jackson, Wyoming, supplementally feeds Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) and Bison bison (American bison) during winter months, but the costs and benefits of this management strategy are being reevaluated considering the potential effects of chronic wasting disease (CWD) on elk....
Bison population dynamics, harvest, and conflict potential under feedground management alternatives at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming
Jonathan D. Cook, Margaret C. McEachran, Gavin G. Cotterill, Eric K Cole
2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5119-D
Bison bison (bison) were once abundant across North America but declined due to overharvesting in the late 1800s. The reintroduced population in and around Jackson, Wyoming has averaged 485 individuals between 2018–2023 and is the subject of a planning process to inform management strategies that will guide the U.S. Fish...
Evaluating elk distribution and conflict under proposed management alternatives at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming
Gavin G. Cotterill, Paul C. Cross, Eric K Cole, Jonathan D. Cook, Margaret C. McEachran, Tabitha A. Graves
2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5119-C
We evaluated measurable attributes describing the current and future distribution of Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) across a region surrounding Jackson, Wyoming, for five feedground management alternatives proposed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service as a revision to the 2007 “Bison and Elk Management Plan” of the National Elk Refuge....
Exploring management and environment effects on edge-of-field phosphorus losses with linear mixed models
Kelsey Krueger, Anita Thompson, Qiang Li, Amber Radatz, Eric Cooley, Todd D. Stuntebeck, Christopher J. Winslow, Emily Oldfield, Matthew Ruark
2025, Journal of Environmental Quality (54) 450-464
Evaluating how weather, farm management, and soil conditions impact phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural sites is essential for improving our waterways in agricultural watersheds. In this study, rainfall characteristics, manure application timing, tillage, surface condition, and soil test phosphorus (STP) were analyzed to determine their effects on total phosphorus (TP)...