Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future
Natalie S. Lord, Michel Crucifix, Daniel J. Lunt, Mike C. Thorne, Nabila Bounceur, Harry J. Dowsett, Charlotte L. O’Brien, A. Ridgwell
2017, Climate of the Past (13) 1539-1571
Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive...
Interactions of estuarine shoreline infrastructure with multiscale sea level variability
Ruo-Quian Wang, Liv M. Herdman, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Michelle Hummel, Mark T. Stacey
2017, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (122) 9962-9979
Sea level rise increases the risk of storms and other short‐term water‐rise events, because it sets a higher water level such that coastal surges become more likely to overtop protections and cause floods. To protect coastal communities, it is necessary to understand the interaction among multiday and tidal sea level...
Environmental influences on the nesting phenology and productivity of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis)
Brandi C. Welch, Clint W. Boal, Ben R. Skipper
2017, The Condor (119) 298-307
Identifying sources of annual variation in the reproductive success of a species may provide valuable insights into how the species may be affected by future environmental or climatic conditions. We examined annual variation in the nesting phenology, productivity, and apparent nest success of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis), a species common...
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario
Shane T. Detweiler, Anne M. Wein, editor(s)
2017, Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5013
ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of...
Element migration of pyrites during ductile deformation of the Yuleken porphyry Cu deposit (NW-China)
Tao Hong, Xing-Wang Xu, Jungang Gao, Stephen Peters, Jilei Li, Mingjian Cao, Peng Xiang, Chu Wu, Jun You
2017, Ore Geology Reviews (100) 205-219
The strongly deformed Yuleken porphyry Cu deposit (YPCD) occurs in the Kalaxiangar porphyry Cu belt (KPCB), which occupies the central area of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB) between the Sawu’er island arc and the Altay Terrane in northern Xinjiang. The YPCD is one of several typical subduction-related deposits in...
Hydrogeologic characteristics and geospatial analysis of water-table changes in the alluvium of the lower Arkansas River Valley, southeastern Colorado, 2002, 2008, and 2015
Michael J. Holmberg
2017, Scientific Investigations Map 3378
The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Lower Arkansas Valley Water Conservancy District measures groundwater levels periodically in about 100 wells completed in the alluvial material of the Arkansas River Valley in Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, Bent, and Prowers Counties in southeastern Colorado, of which 95 are used for the...
Testing the limits of temporal stability: Willingness to pay values among Grand Canyon whitewater boaters across decades
Chris J. Neher, John Duffield, Lucas S. Bair, David A. Patterson, Katherine Neher
2017, Water Resources Research (53) 10108-10120
We directly compare trip willingness to pay (WTP) values between 1985 and 2015 stated preference surveys of private party Grand Canyon boaters using identically designed valuation methods. The temporal gap of 30 years between these two studies is well beyond that of any tests of WTP temporal stability in the...
Control of landslide volume and hazard by glacial stratigraphic architecture, Northwest Washington state, USA
Jonathan Perkins, Mark E. Reid, Kevin M. Schmidt
2017, Geology (45) 1139-1142
Landslide volumes span many orders of magnitude, but large-volume slides tend to travel farther and consequently can pose a greater hazard. In northwest Washington State, USA, a landscape abounding with landslides big and small, the recent occurrence of the large-volume and tragically deadly State Route 530 (Oso) landslide is a stark reminder of...
Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using SWAT model
Sangchul Lee, Ali M. Sadeghi, In-Young Yeo, Gregory W. McCarty, W. Dean Hively
2017, Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers (60) 1939-1955
Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrate loads from agriculture....
Effects of lava heating on volatile-rich slopes on Io
Colin M. Dundas
2017, Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets (122) 546-559
The upper crust of Io may be very rich in volatile sulfur and SO2. The surface is also highly volcanically active, and slopes may be warmed by radiant heat from the lava. This is particularly the case in paterae, which commonly host volcanic eruptions and long-lived lava lakes. Paterae slopes...
A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics
Christine Sample, John Fryxell, Joanna A. Bieri, Paula Federico, Julia Earl, Ruscena Wiederholt, Brady J. Mattsson, Tyler Flockhart, Sam Nicol, James E. Diffendorfer, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Richard A. Erickson, D. Ryan Norris
2017, Ecology and Evolution (8) 493-508
Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its...
Estimating the impact of oyster restoration scenarios on transient fish production
Elizabeth McCoy, Stuart R. Borrett, Megan K. LaPeyre, Bradley J. Peterson
2017, Restoration Ecology (25) 798-809
Oyster reef restoration projects are increasing in number both to enhance oyster density and to retain valuable ecosystem services provided by oyster reefs. Although some oyster restoration projects have demonstrated success by increasing density and biomass of transient fish, it still remains a challenge to quantify the effects of oyster...
Host susceptibility to snake fungal disease is highly dispersed across phylogenetic and functional trait space
Frank T. Burbrink, Jeffrey M. Lorch, Karen R. Lips
2017, Science Advances (3)
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) reduce host population sizes, cause extinction, disassemble communities, and have indirect negative effects on human well-being. Fungal EIDs have reduced population abundances in amphibians and bats across many species over large areas. The recent emergence of snake fungal disease (SFD) may have caused declines in some...
Granular flows at recurring slope lineae on Mars indicate a limited role for liquid water
Colin M. Dundas, Alfred S. McEwen, Matthew Chojnacki, Moses P. Milazzo, Shane Byrne, Jim McElwaine, Anna Urso
2017, Nature Geoscience (10) 903-907
Recent liquid water flow on Mars has been proposed based on geomorphological features, such as gullies. Recurring slope lineae — seasonal flows that are darker than their surroundings — are candidate locations for seeping liquid water on Mars today, but their formation mechanism remains unclear. Topographical analysis shows that the...
Geologic overview of the Mars Science Laboratory rover mission at the Kimberley, Gale crater, Mars
Melissa Rice, Sanjeev Gupta, Allan H. Treiman, Kathryn M. Stack, Fred J. Calef, Lauren A. Edgar, John P. Grotzinger, Nina L. Lanza, Laetitia Le Deit, Jeremie Lasue, Kirsten L. Siebach, Ashwin R. Vasavada, Roger C. Wiens, Josh Williams
2017, Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets (122) 2-20
The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity rover completed a detailed investigation at the Kimberley waypoint within Gale crater from sols 571-634 using its full science instrument payload. From orbital images examined early in the Curiosity mission, the Kimberley region had been identified as a high-priority science target based on its...
Geologic map of the Washington West 30’ × 60’ quadrangle, Maryland, Virginia, and Washington D.C.
Peter T. Lyttle, John N. Aleinikoff, William C. Burton, E. Allen Crider Jr., Avery A. Drake Jr., Albert J. Froelich, J. Wright Horton Jr., Gregorios Kasselas, Robert B. Mixon, Lucy McCartan, Arthur E. Nelson, Wayne L. Newell, Louis Pavlides, David S. Powars, C. Scott Southworth, Robert E. Weems
2017, Open-File Report 2017-1142
The Washington West 30’ × 60’ quadrangle covers an area of approximately 4,884 square kilometers (1,343 square miles) in and west of the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area. The eastern part of the area is highly urbanized, and more rural areas to the west are rapidly being developed. The area lies...
Declining survival of black brant from subarctic and arctic breeding areas
Alan G. Leach, David H. Ward, James S. Sedinger, Mark S. Lindberg, W. Sean Boyd, Jerry W. Hupp, Robert J. Ritchie
2017, Journal of Wildlife Management (81) 1210-1218
Since the mid 1990s, the number of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) nests on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska, USA, the historically predominant breeding area of brant, has declined steadily. This has caused researchers and managers to question if arctic breeding populations can compensate for the reduction in brant...
Investigation of input reduction techniques for morphodynamic modeling of complex inlets with baroclinic forcing
Guy R. Gelfenbaum, Edwin Elias, Andrew W. Stevens
2017, Conference Paper, Coastal Dynamics 2017, Proceedings
The Mouth of the Columbia River (MCR) is a complex estuary inlet system characterized by a buoyant plume created by high freshwater flows from the Columbia River into the Pacific Ocean. Data obtained during two major field campaigns have resulted in a comprehensive dataset of hydrodynamics and sediment transport under high (2013)...
Controls of multi-modal wave conditions in a complex coastal setting
Christie Hegermiller, Ana C. Rueda, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, J.A.A. Antolinez, Fernando J. Mendez
2017, Geophysical Research Letters (44) 12315-12323
Coastal hazards emerge from the combined effect of wave conditions and sea level anomalies associated with storms or low-frequency atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Rigorous characterization of wave climate is limited by the availability of spectral wave observations, the computational cost of dynamical simulations, and the ability to link wave-generating atmospheric patterns with...
Human presence diminishes the importance of climate in driving fire activity across the United States
Alexandra D. Syphard, Jon E. Keeley, Anne Hopkins Pfaff, Ken Ferschweiler
2017, PNAS (114) 13750-13755
Growing human and ecological costs due to increasing wildfire are an urgent concern in policy and management, particularly given projections of worsening fire conditions under climate change. Thus, understanding the relationship between climatic variation and fire activity is a critically important scientific question. Different factors limit fire behavior in different...
Amplification of earthquake ground motions in Washington, DC, and implications for hazard assessments in central and eastern North America
Thomas L. Pratt, J. Wright Horton Jr., Jessica Munoz, Susan E. Hough, Martin C. Chapman, C. Guney Olgun
2017, Geophysical Research Letters (44) 12150-12160
The extent of damage in Washington, DC, from the 2011 Mw 5.8 Mineral, VA, earthquake was surprising for an epicenter 130 km away; U.S. Geological Survey “Did-You-Feel-It” reports suggest that Atlantic Coastal Plain and other unconsolidated sediments amplified ground motions in the city. We measure this amplification relative to bedrock sites using earthquake...
A simulation method for combining hydrodynamic data and acoustic tag tracks to predict the entrainment of juvenile salmonids onto the Yolo Bypass under future engineering scenarios
Aaron R. Blake, Paul Stumpner, Jon R. Burau
2017, Report
During water year 2016 the U.S. Geological Survey California Water Science Center (USGS) collaborated with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to conduct a joint hydrodynamic and fisheries study to acquire data that could be used to evaluate the effects of proposed modifications to the Fremont Weir on outmigrating...
Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota
Brian W. Miller, Amy J. Symstad, Leonardo Frid, Nicholas A. Fisichelli, Gregor W. Schuurman
2017, Ecosphere (8)
Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform...
The Southern Appalachian Brook Trout management conundrum: What should restoration look like in the 21st Century?
Matt A. Kulp, Shawna Mitchell, David C. Kazyak, Bernard R. Kuhajda, Jason Henegar, T. Casey Weathers, Anna George, Joshua R. Ennen, Tim King
2017, Conference Paper, Proceedings of the wild trout XII symposium
Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the southern Appalachian portion of their range have been isolated in remote headwater systems for millennia. Recent genetic investigations indicate extremely low allelic diversity, heterozygosity and effective population sizes in many streams. In populations restored using multiple source stocks, limited introgression has been observed despite...
Are nest boxes ecological traps for red-footed falcons Falco vespertinius at Naurzum
Todd E. Katzner, Alexander E. Bragin, Evgeny A. Bragin
2017, Conference Paper, Biological diversity of Asian Steppe: Proceedings of the III international scientific conference
Nest box programs are frequently implemented for conservation of cavity-nesting birds, but their effectiveness is rarely evaluated in comparison to birds not using nest boxes. In the European Palearctic, Red-Footed Falcon (Falco vespertinus) populations are both of high conservation concern and are strongly associated with nest box programs in heavily...
