Approaches for using CMIP projections in climate model ensembles to address the ‘hot model’ problem
Ryan Boyles, Catherine A. Nikiel, Brian W. Miller, Jeremy S. Littell, Adam J. Terando, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jay R. Alder, Derek H. Rosendahl, Adrienne M. Wootten
2024, Open-File Report 2024-1008
Several recent generation global-climate models were found to have anomalously high climate sensitivities and may not be useful for certain applications. Four approaches for developing ensembles of climate projections for applications that address this issue are:Using an “all models” approach;Screening using equilibrium climate sensitivity and (or) transient climate response;Bayesian model...
Season of death, pathogen persistence and wildlife behaviour alter number of anthrax secondary infections from environmental reservoirs
Amelie C. Dolfi, Kyrre Kausrud, Kristyna Rysava, Celeste Champagne, Yen-Hua Huang, Zoe R. Barandongo, Wendy Christine Turner
2024, Proceedings of the Royal Society B (291)
An important part of infectious disease management is predicting factors that influence disease outbreaks, such as R, the number of secondary infections arising from an infected individual. Estimating R is particularly challenging for environmentally transmitted pathogens given time lags between cases and subsequent infections. Here, we calculated R for Bacillus anthracis infections arising from anthrax carcass sites...
Deep magmatic staging chambers for crustal layered mafic intrusions: An example from the Bushveld Complex of southern Africa
Janine Cole, Carol A. Finn, Susan J. Webb
2024, Precambrian Research (403)
The deep mafic magmatic staging chambers of layered mafic intrusions have been conjectured but not imaged. Their existence has long been postulated from geochemical models which require multiple magma injections from staging chambers to account for their multi-scale igneous layering and...
Using stochastic point pattern analysis to track regional orientations of magmatism during the transition to cenozoic extension and Rio Grande rifting, Southern Rocky Mountains
Joshua Mark Rosera, Sean P. Gaynor, Alexey Ulianov, Urs Schaltegger
2024, Tectonics (43)
The southern Rocky Mountains in Colorado and northern New Mexico hosted intracontinental magmatism that developed during a tectonic transition from shortening (Laramide orogeny, ca. 75 to 40 Ma) through extension and rifting. We present a novel approach that uses stochastic weighted bootstrap simulations of a large set of...
Detection probability and bias in machine-learning-based unoccupied aerial system non-breeding waterfowl surveys
Reid Viegut, Elisabeth B. Webb, Andrew Raedeke, Zhicheng Tang, Yang Zhang, Zhenduo Zhai, Zhiguang Liu, Shiqi Wang, Jiuyi Zheng, Yi Shang
2024, Drones (8)
Unoccupied aerial systems (UASs) may provide cheaper, safer, and more accurate and precise alternatives to traditional waterfowl survey techniques while also reducing disturbance to waterfowl. We evaluated availability and perception bias based on machine-learning-based non-breeding waterfowl count estimates derived from aerial imagery collected using a DJI Mavic Pro 2 on...
Upstream experience and experimental translocation of invasive bigheaded carps results in increased upstream passage success at a navigation lock in a large river
Andrea K. Fritts, Daniel Gibson-Reinemer, Brent Knights, Amanda S. Milde, Jessica C. Stanton, Marybeth K. Brey, Douglas Appel, Aaron R. Cupp, Sarah Tripp, James T. Lamer, Mark W. Fritts
2024, River Research and Applications (40) 575-586
Fish movements in regulated rivers can be challenging to study because anthropogenic modifications, such as locks and dams, can influence animal behavior. Upper Mississippi River Lock and Dam 19 (LD 19), for example, is an invasive carp movement bottleneck due to an impassable dam....
Deep structure of Siletzia in the Puget Lowland: Imaging an obducted plateau and accretionary thrust belt with potential fields
Megan L. Anderson, Richard J. Blakely, Ray Wells, Joseph D. Dragovich
2024, Tectonics (43)
Detailed understanding of crustal components and tectonic history of forearcs is important due to their geological complexity and high seismic hazard. The principal component of the Cascadia forearc is Siletzia, a composite basaltic terrane of oceanic origin. Much is known about the lithology and age of the...
Constraints from GPS measurements on plate coupling within the Makran subduction zone and tsunami scenarios in the western Indian Ocean
Guo Cheng, William D. Barnhart, David Small
2024, Geophysical Journal International (237) 288-301
Plate-coupling estimates and previous seismicity indicate that portions of the Makran megathrust of southern Pakistan and Iran are partially coupled and have the potential to produce future magnitude 7+ earthquakes. However, the GPS observations needed to constrain coupling models are sparse and lead to an incomplete understanding of regional earthquake and...
A global assessment of environmental and climate influences on wetland macroinvertebrate community structure and function
Luis B. Epele, Emilio A. Williams-Subiza, Matthew S. Bird, Aurelie Boissezon, Dani Boix, Elaine Demierre, Conor Fair, Patricia Garcia, Stephanie Gascon, Marta G. Grech, Hamish S. Greig, Michael Jeffries, Jamie M. Kneitel, Olga Loskutova, Leonardo Maltchik, Luz M. Manzo, Gabriela Mataloni, Kyle McLean, Musa C. Mlambo, Beat Oertli, Mateus M. Pires, Jordi Sala, Erica E. Scheibler, Cristina Stenert, Haitao Wu, Scott A Wissinger, Darold P. Batzer
2024, Global Change Biology (30)
Estimating organisms' responses to environmental variables and taxon associations across broad spatial scales is vital for predicting their responses to climate change. Macroinvertebrates play a major role in wetland processes, but studies simultaneously exploring both community structure and community trait responses to environmental gradients are still lacking. We compiled a...
Hydrology and water quality of a dune-and-swale wetland adjacent to the Grand Calumet River, Indiana, 2019–22
Shawn Naylor, Amy M. Gahala
2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5122
Adverse ecological and water-quality effects associated with industrial land-use changes are common for littoral wetlands connected to river mouth ecosystems in the Grand Calumet River-Indiana Harbor Canal Area of Concern. These effects can be exacerbated by recent high Lake Michigan water levels that are problematic for wetland restoration. Wetlands in...
Establishing quantitative benchmarks for soil erosion and ecological monitoring, assessment, and management
Nicholas P. Webb, Brandon L. Edwards, Alexandra Heller, Sarah E. McCord, Jeremy W. Schallner, Ronald S. Treminio, Brandi E. Wheeler, Nelson G. Stauffer, Sheri Spiegal, Michael C. Duniway, Alexander C.E. Traynor, Emily Kachergis, Carrie-Ann Houdeshell
2024, Ecological Indicators (159)
Soil erosion can have a multitude of negative impacts on agroecosystems and society and there remains an urgent need for tools to support its management. Quantitative benchmarks based on holistic understanding of erosion processes, ecosystem function, and land use objectives can be...
Variability in weather and site properties affect fuel and fire behavior following fuel treatments in semiarid sagebrush-steppe.
Samuel J. Price, Matthew J. Germino
2024, Journal of Environmental Management (353)
Fuel-treatments targeting shrubs and fire-prone exotic annual grasses (EAGs) are increasingly used to mitigate increased wildfire risks in arid and semiarid environments, and understanding their response to natural factors is needed for effective landscape management. Using field-data collected over four years from fuel-break treatments in semiarid sagebrush-steppe, we asked 1)...
Non-native plant invasion after fire in western USA varies by functional type and with climate
Janet S. Prevey, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Ian S. Pearse, Seth M. Munson, Jens T. Stevens, Kevin Barrett, Jonathon D. Coop, Michelle Day, David Firmage, Paula J. Fornwalt, Katharine Haynes, James B. Johnston , Becky Kerns, Meg A. Krawchuk, Becky Miller, Ty Nietupski, Jacquilyn Roque, Judith Diane Springer, Camille S. Stevens-Rumann, Micheal T. Stoddard, Claire Tortorelli
2024, Biological Invasions (26) 1157-1179
Invasions by non-native plant species after fire can negatively affect important ecosystem services and lead to invasion-fire cycles that further degrade ecosystems. The relationship between fire and plant invasion is complex, and the risk of invasion varies greatly between functional types and across geographic scales. Here, we examined patterns and...
Contrasting migratory chronology and routes of Lesser Scaup: Implications of different migration strategies in a broadly distributed species
Laurie Anne Hall, Christopher J. Latty, Jeffrey M. Warren, John Y. Takekawa, Susan E.W. De La Cruz
2024, Journal of Field Ornithology (95)
Migration allows birds to improve fitness by exploiting seasonal resource peaks and avoiding limitations. Migration strategies may differ among individuals within a species, but for all strategies, the benefit of increased fitness should outweigh the costs of migration. These costs can include increased mortality risk, time constraints in the annual...
Insights into magma storage depths and eruption controls at Kīlauea Volcano during explosive and effusive periods of the past 500 years based on melt and fluid inclusions
Allan Lerner, D. Matthew Sublett, Paul J. Wallace, Christina Cauley, Robert J. Bodnar
2024, Earth and Planetary Science Letters (628)
Kīlauea Volcano experiences centuries-long cycles of explosive and effusive eruptive behavior, but the relation, if any, between these eruptive styles and changing conditions in the magma plumbing system remains poorly known. We analyze olivine-hosted melt and fluid inclusions to determine magma storage...
Integrating monitoring and modeling information to develop an indicator of watershed progress toward nutrient reduction goals
Qian Zhang, Gary W. Shenk, Gopal Bhatt, Isabella Bertani
2024, Ecological Indicators (158)
Eutrophication has been a major environmental issue in many coastal and inland ecosystems, which is primarily attributed to excessive anthropogenic inputs of nutrients. Restoration efforts have therefore focused on the reduction of watershed nutrient loads, including in the Chesapeake Bay (USA). To facilitate watershed management,...
Forecasting storm-induced coastal flooding for 21st century sea-level rise scenarios in the Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands
Curt D. Storlazzi, Borja G. Reguero, Camila Gaido L., Kristen C. Alkins, Chris Lowry, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Li H. Erikson, Andrea C. O'Neill, Michael W. Beck
2024, Data Report 1184
Oceanographic, coastal engineering, ecologic, and geospatial data and tools were combined to evaluate the increased risks of storm-induced coastal flooding in the populated Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands as a result of climate change and sea-level rise. We followed a hybrid (dynamical and statistical) downscaling approach to map flooding...
Findings from a decade of ground motion simulation validation research and a path forward
Sanaz Rezaeian, Jonathan P. Stewart, Nico Luco, Christine A. Goulet
2024, Earthquake Spectra (40) 346-378
Simulated ground motions have the potential to advance seismic hazard assessments and structural response analyses, particularly for conditions with limited recorded ground motions such as large magnitude earthquakes at short source-to-site distances. However, rigorous validation of simulated ground motions is needed for hazard analysts, practicing engineers, or regulatory bodies to...
Beaver dam analogs did not improve beaver translocation outcomes in a desert river
Christine Sandbach, Julie K. Young, Mary Conner, Emma Hansen, Phaedra E. Budy
2024, Restoration Ecology (32)
Stream restoration programs employ beaver-related restoration techniques, including beaver translocations and installation of beaver dam analogs (BDA), to create complex in-stream habitat. We investigated whether BDA installations improved the probability of translocated beavers surviving and colonizing a section of a degraded desert river. We translocated beavers fitted with tracking devices...
Survival, cause-specific mortality, and population growth of white-tailed deer in western Virginia
Garrett B. Clevinger, W. Mark Ford, Marcella J. Kelly, Robert S. Alonso, Randy W. DeYoung, Nelson W. Lafon, Michael J. Cherry
2024, Journal of Wildlife Management (88)
Understanding the role of recruitment in population dynamics of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) is important for management. In the central Appalachian Mountains, deer are part of a largely forested ecosystem that supports 3 carnivore species thought to be capable of influencing white-tailed deer recruitment: black bears (Urus americanus), coyotes (Canis...
A tale of two islands: Tectonic and orbital controls on marine terrace reoccupation, Channel Islands National Park, California, USA
Daniel R. Muhs, Lindsey T. Groves, Kathleen R. Simmons, R. Randall Schumann, Stephen B. DeVogel
2024, Journal of Quaternary Science (39) 173-207
In areas of low uplift rate on the Pacific Coast of North America, reoccupation of emergent marine terraces by later high sea-stands has been hypothesised to explain the existence of thermally anomalous fauna (mixtures of warm and cool species) of last interglacial age. If uplift rates have been low for...
Innovation in climate adaptation: Harnessing innovation for effective biodiversity and ecosystem adaptation
Bruce A. Stein, Janet A. Cushing, Stephen T. Jackson, Molly Elizabeth Smith Cross, Wendy Foden, Lauren M. Hallett, Shannon M. Hagerman, Lara J. Hansen, Jessica J. Hellmann, Dawn Magness, Guillermo F. Mendoza, Corina Newsome, Arsum Pathak, Suzanne M. Prober, Joel H. Reynolds, Erika S. Zavaleta
2024, Report
Climate change poses growing risks to species, ecosystems, and people, and is challenging many of the assumptions that underpin modern conservation practice. As climate impacts accelerate, conventional conservation approaches are being compromised and losing their effectiveness. As a result, there is an urgent need to not only center climate adaptation...
Twenty years of explosive-effusive activity at El Reventador volcano (Ecuador) recorded in its geomorphology
Silvia Vallejo Vargas, Angela K. Diefenbach, Elizabeth Gaunt, Marco Almeida, Patricio Ramon, Fernanda Naranjo, Karim Kelfoun
2024, Frontiers in Earth Science (11)
Shifts in activity at long-active, open-vent volcanoes are difficult to forecast because precursory signals are enigmatic and can be lost in and amongst daily activity. Here, we propose that crater and vent morphologies, along with summit height, can help us bring some insights into future activity at one...
Advanced quantitative precipitation information: Improving monitoring and forecasts of precipitation, streamflow, and coastal flooding in the San Francisco Bay area
Robert Cifelli, V Chandrasekar, Liv M. Herdman, Dave Turner, A. B. White, M. Alcott, M. C. Anderson, Patrick L. Barnard, S.K. Biswas, M. Boucher, J. Bytheway, H. Chen, H. Cutler, M. English, Li H. Erikson, F. Junyent, L. E. Johnson, J. Krebs, J. van de Lindt, J. Kim, Marty L. Leonard, Y. Ma, M. Marquis, W. Moninger, G. Pratt, C. Radhakrishnan, Michael Shields, J. Spaulding, Babak Tehranirad, R. S. Webb
2024, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) (105) E313-E331
Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) is a synergistic project that combines observations and models to improve monitoring and forecasts of precipitation, streamflow, and coastal flooding in the San Francisco Bay Area. As an experimental system,...
A framework for disaggregating remote-sensing cropland into rainfed and irrigated classes at continental scale
Afua Owusu, Stefanie Kagone, Mansoor Leh, Naga Manohar Velpuri, Murali Krishna Gumma, Benjamin Ghansah, Paranamana Thilina-Prabhath, Komlavi Akpoti, Kirubel Mekonnen, Primrose Tinonetsana, Ismail Mohammed
2024, International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation (126)
Agriculture consumes the largest share of freshwater globally; therefore, distinguishing between rainfed and irrigated croplands is essential for agricultural water management and food security. In this study, a framework incorporating the Budyko model was used to differentiate between rainfed and irrigated...
