Achieving interpretable machine learning by functional decomposition of black-box models into explainable predictor effects
David Kohler, David Rügamer, Lindsey J. Boyle, Kelly O. Maloney, Matthias Schmid
2025, npj Artificial Intelligence (1)
Machine learning (ML) models are often based on complex black-box architectures that are difficult to interpret. This interpretability problem can hinder the use of ML in fields like medicine, ecology, and insurance, and has boosted research in interpretable machine learning (IML). Here, we propose a novel approach for the functional...
Viral outbreak dynamics and evolution in wildlife at the interface with humans
Rachael Marie Giglio, Aaron Westmoreland, Mark Q. Wilber, Grete WIlson-Henjum, Aung Nyein Chan, Billy Gardner, Wantida Horpiencharoen, Roderick B. Gagne, Avery M. Corondi, Alec Baker, Matthew A. Combs, Jefferey Chandler, Kezia R. Manlove, Kim M. Pepin, W. David Walter
2025, Biology Letters (21)
In this study, we used a multi-faceted approach to understand patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and persistence in a wild white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population. Serology data indicated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and persistence during the seven-month sampling period. Traditional disease modelling based...
Rapid structured decision making for Hypomesus transpacificus (delta smelt) summer–fall freshwater outflow management
Brian D. Healy, Corey C. Phillis, Brian Mahardja, Cameron Koizumi, Catarina Pien, Nancy Parker, J. Louise Conrad, Julie Ekstrom, Julie Leimbach, Rafael Silberblatt, Tom Fischer, Chase Ehlo
2025, Open-File Report 2025-1055
Managers of the Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Projects (SWP) in California are confronted with difficult tradeoffs between water uses and associated values affected by water management decisions. These decisions involve altering the timing and magnitude of water releases from dams and reservoirs, which can affect habitats for...
Interaction strength and harvest intensity mediate predator–prey dynamics on coral reefs
Sophia A. Rahnke, Winter. Kawika B., Lillian Joy Tuttle Raz, Lisa C. McManus
2025, Ecosphere (16)
Understanding predator–prey relationships is fundamental to our knowledge of the stability and resilience of ecological systems. These dynamics are shaped by both ecological factors, like interaction strength, and anthropogenic factors, like harvest intensity, which can have large-scale implications for community structure. However, few studies have focused on the combined impact...
Spatial connections between the timing of hydroclimatic extremes
Stacey Archfield
2025, Nature Water (3) 1352-1353
No abstract available....
Conceptual and numerical groundwater flow model of the Iowa River alluvial aquifer near Tama County, Iowa, 1980 through 2022
Kendall M.F. Goldstein, Kyle W. Davis
2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5086
The Iowa River alluvial aquifer is an important source of water on the Meskwaki Settlement in Tama County, Iowa, which is land owned by the Sac & Fox Tribe of the Mississippi in Iowa (commonly known as the Meskwaki Nation). The U.S. Geological Survey constructed a groundwater flow model, including...
Approximate inland extent of saltwater intrusion at the base of the Biscayne aquifer, Miami-Dade County, Florida, 2022
Jade Ziqiu Zhang, Corinne Renshaw
2025, Scientific Investigations Map 3541
Miami-Dade County is part of a densely populated urban corridor in southeastern Florida. The Biscayne aquifer serves as Miami-Dade County’s primary drinking water source and is characterized by highly permeable karstic limestone and carbonate sand. The aquifer’s coastal location and permeable nature make it susceptible to saltwater intrusion. Monitoring the...
Harmonization of a water withdrawal dataset for the conterminous United States
Carol L. Luukkonen, Ayman H. Alzraiee, Deidre M. Herbert, Richard G. Niswonger, Joshua Larsen, Cheryl A. Buchwald, Natalie Houston, Cheryl A. Dieter, Lisa D. Miller, Jana S. Stewart
2025, JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association (61)
The U.S. Geological Survey is developing nationally consistent water-use modeling approaches to replace previous methods relying on locally specific reported and estimated data. These national assessments require datasets that incorporate water withdrawal variability across the United States and over long periods. However, source data often have unclear definitions, missing or...
Rice cultivation supports growth and survival of a threatened semi-aquatic reptile
Jonathan P. Rose, Allison M. Nguyen, Anna Jordan, Daniel Antonio Macias, Elliot James Schoenig, Giancarlo Ray Napolitano, Richard Kim, Julia S.M. Ersan, Alexandria M. Fulton, Brian J. Halstead
2025, Ecological Applications (35)
Integration of agroecosystems and other working landscapes with protected lands and waters is critical to the conservation of Earth's biodiversity. Rice agroecosystems support many species by providing aquatic habitat where natural wetlands have been altered or drained. In regions with long dry seasons, rice fields and associated irrigation canals provide...
Predicting sediment bulk density for San Francisco Estuary
Samantha C. McGill, Jessica R. Lacy
2025, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science (23)
Sediment bulk density (ρ-dry) and particle size are two important parameters for predicting sediment bed erosion. ρ-dry, however, is difficult to measure accurately. The units of ρdry have not been consistently reported in the literature, leading to confusion, particularly in the calculation of sediment budgets that typically require integrating mass-based...
Causal analysis of fire regime drivers in California
Jon Keeley, Alexandra D. Syphard
2025, International Journal of Wildland Fire (34)
BackgroundUnderstanding the relative contribution of climate and human factors to wildfires is critical for managing risk across California’s diverse ecosystems, in the United States (US).AimsWe propose a model that distinguishes between proximate and ultimate drivers of fire regimes and apply it to a century of fire and climate...
Biologging to identify nesting and non-nesting emergences for four species of imperiled sea turtles
Kristen Hart, Connor F. White, Donna J. Shaver, Margaret Lamont, Michael Cherkiss, Andrew G. Crowder, Nicholas M. Whitney
2025, Frontiers in Marine Science (12)
Quantifying sea turtle nesting behavior is essential for recovery planning and evaluating management actions. Traditional monitoring approaches, based on nest counts from beach surveys, can misclassify non-nesting emergences, obscure true fecundity, and underestimate clutch frequency, metrics that directly influence population models and regulatory decisions. Here, we demonstrate...
Wetland hydrologic dynamics and duck productivity are declining in the Prairie Pothole Region, and they are linked
Michael J. Anteau, Michael L Szymanski, Aaron T. Pearse
2025, Environmental and Sustainability Indicators (29)
The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is a globally important area hosting >50 % of North America’s breeding ducks. Ducks in the PPR depend on wetlands and grasslands which have experienced accelerated losses in extent and quality due to agriculture. While other bird populations have declined,...
Designs for cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom monitoring in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California
Keith Bouma-Gregson, Lisa Lucas, Andrea Cecile Jaegge, Dulcinea Marie Avouris, Emily T. Richardson, Jacob Aaron Zwart, Tamara E. C. Kraus
2025, Preprint
Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CHABs) are a growing concern in freshwater environments. These blooms can lead to degraded water quality, ecosystem disruptions, and public health threats due to the production of potent cyanotoxins. The Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (California, USA; the Delta) has experienced CHABs since 1999, including CHABs that produce...
Land use and soil characteristics are associated with increased risk of treponeme-associated hoof disease in elk
Steven N. Winter, Glen A. Sargeant, Margaret A. Wild, Erin Clancey, Kathryn P. Huyvaert, Kyle Garrison, Pilar Fernandez
2025, Ecosphere (16)
Environments can shape the occurrence and extent of disease outbreaks in wildlife. We studied the effects of environmental features on the occurrence of treponeme-associated hoof disease (TAHD), an emerging infectious disease of free-ranging elk (Cervus canadensis), in southwestern Washington, USA. During the 2016–2022 harvest seasons, successful elk hunters returned mandatory...
Foundational principles of an applied cultural evolutionary science for natural resource management and conservation
Richard Eugene Waggaman Berl, Jonathan J. Fisk, Lily M. van Eeden, Jonathan Salerno, Álvaro Fernández-Llamazares, Kirsten Leong, Jonathan W. Long, G. Scott Boomer, Christopher K. Williams, Ugo Arbieu, Lisa Lehnen, Adam Landon, Erle C. Ellis, Bas Verschuuren, Lincoln R. Larson, Michael C. Gavin
2025, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (380)
Culture, as the filter through which people view the world and a key determinant of human behaviour, is central to the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Conservation is intended to moderate the impacts of human cultural modification of the environment, exists as an endeavour because...
Toward co-designed Earth System Models: Reflecting end-user priorities in local applications from a modeler's perspective
Yifan Cheng, Nicole M. Herman-Mercer, Andrew J. Newman, Keith Musselman, Cleo Woelfle-Hazard, Dylan Blaskey, Cassandra M. Brooks, Tvetene Carlson, Joshua C. Koch, Monica Morrison, Edda A. Mutter, Daniel Sarna-Wojcicki, Peyton Thomas, Jenessa Tlen, Ryan C. Toohey
2025, AGU Advances (6)
Earth System Models (ESM) are crucial for quantifying climate impacts across Earth's interconnected systems and supporting science-based adaptation and mitigation. However, not including end-users, especially decision-makers representing communities vulnerable to climate change, can limit model utility, increase epistemic risks, and lead to information misuse in decision-making. While the...
Ultramafic float rocks at Jezero crater (Mars): Excavation of lower crustal rocks or mantle peridotites by impact cratering?
O. Beyssac, E. Clave, O. Forni, A. Udry, A.C. Pascuzzo, E. Dehouck, P.S.A. Beck, L. Mandon, C. Quantin-Nataf, N. Mangold, G. Lopez-Reyes, C. Royer, O. Gasnault, Travis S.J. Gabriel, L.C. Kah, S. Schroder, J.R. Johnson, T. Bertrand, B. Chide, T. Fouchet, J.I. Simon, F. Montmessin, A. Fau, S. Maurice, R.C. Wiens, A. Cousin
2025, Earth and Planetary Science Letters (675)
Based on observation and data from meteorites and in situ scientific missions, experiments as well as models, the Martian mantle is assumed to share some compositional and mineralogical affinity with the terrestrial mantle. However, there might be subtle differences like the Martian mantle being more ferroan. Yet,...
Simulation of groundwater flow in Wake County, North Carolina, 2000 through 2070
Dominick J. Antolino, Gerard J. Gonthier, Georgina M. Sanchez
2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5087
In 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey and Wake County Environmental Services began a collaborative study to evaluate groundwater resources and long-term groundwater availability in the county’s fractured-rock groundwater system. Wake County, in central North Carolina, is experiencing rapid population growth, associated land development, and changing water use. Hydrogeologic data including...
Muskellunge spawning habitat characteristics and availability in Green Bay, Lake Michigan
Jared E. Krebs, Robert J. Sheffer, Daniel J. Dembkowski, Ryan Eastman, Steven R. Holger, Joshua K. Raabe, Daniel A. Isermann
2025, North American Journal of Fisheries Management (45) 1155-1170
ObjectiveHabitat degradation has been associated with the loss of many self-sustaining Muskellunge Esox masquinongy populations, including those in Green Bay, where stocking has provided an exceptional trophy fishery but restoration goals include establishing self-sustaining populations and there is little evidence of natural recruitment. Our objectives were to determine...
River ice controls permafrost bank erosion across an Arctic delta
J Arcuri, Irina Overeem, Marisa Repasch, R. S. Anderson, S. P. Anderson, Joshua C. Koch, Frank Urban
2025, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms (50)
Bank erosion in Arctic rivers helps shape channel geometry, mobilizes carbon from permafrost and influences sediment delivery to the Arctic Ocean. On Alaska's Arctic coastal plain, rivers begin flowing during snowmelt in late spring while extensive river ice persists in channels, such that hydraulics are altered and water is kept...
Present and future coastal flooding hazard for Long Island, NY and Long Island Sound (NY/CT), USA
Salme Ellen Cook, Liv M. Herdman
2025, Preprint
Coastal flooding and the associated damages due to storms are increasing with sea level rise around the world, with regional variability in the severity of impacts., Researchers and resource managers need to better understand and predict the future shifts in coastal flooding due to these processes to plan for resilient...
Projecting management-relevant change of undeveloped coastal barriers with the Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier model (MEEB) v1.0
Ian Robert Reeves, Andrew D. Ashton, Erika E. Lentz, Christopher R. Sherwood, Davina Passeri, Sara Zeigler
2025, Geoscientific Model Development (18) 9319-9348
Models of coastal barrier geomorphic and ecologic change are valuable tools for understanding and predicting when, where, and how barriers evolve and transition between ecogeomorphic states. Few existing models of barrier systems are designed to operate over spatiotemporal scales congruous with effective management practices (i.e., decades/kilometers, referred to herein as...
Aeromagnetic and magnetotelluric imaging of west-central Idaho and the Stibnite-Yellow Pine mining district: A regional to district perspective
Eric D. Anderson, Brian D. Rodriguez, Karen Lund, Christopher Dail, Bill Breen
2025, Economic Geology (120) 1899-1923
Aeromagnetic and magnetotelluric (MT) data are used to better understand the geology and mineral resources near the Stibnite-Yellow Pine mining district in central Idaho. The reduced-to-pole (RTP) transformation of regional-scale aeromagnetic data shows that allochthonous island-arc rocks west of the Salmon River suture are significantly more magnetic than the Laurentian...
Geologic models underpinning the 2024 U.S. Geological Survey assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the Hosston and Travis Peak Formations of the onshore Gulf Coast region, U.S.A.
Lauri A. Burke, Stanley T. Paxton, Scott A. Kinney, Nicholas J. Gianoutsos, Russell F. Dubiel, Janet K. Pitman
2025, GCAGS Journal (14) 87-105
The Early Cretaceous (Berriasian–Hauterivian) Hosston Formation in Louisiana and eastward is time correlative to the Travis Peak Formation of Texas and southern Arkansas. The formation is a first-order clastic sequence with a regional carbonate transgressive surface as an upper contact. The Hosston and Travis Peak formations contain conventional natural gas...
