Empirically validated drought vulnerability mapping in the mixed conifer forests of the Sierra Nevada
Adrian Das, Michele R Slaton, Jeffrey Mallory, Gregory P. Asner, Roberta E. Martin, Paul Hardwick
2022, Ecological Applications (32)
Severe droughts are predicted to become more frequent in the future, and the consequences of such droughts on forests can be dramatic, resulting in massive tree mortality, rapid change in forest structure and composition, and substantially increased risk of catastrophic fire. Forest managers have tools at their disposal to try...
Complex demographic responses to contrasting climate drivers lead to divergent population trends across the range of a threatened alpine plant
Lucas Berio Fortini, Paul Krushelnycky, Donald Drake, Forest Starr, Kim Starr, Charles G. Chimera
2022, Global Ecology and Conservation (33)
Alpine plants are likely to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their restricted distributions and sensitivity to rapid environmental shifts occurring in high-elevation ecosystems. The well-studied Haleakalā silversword (‘āhinahina, Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum) already exhibits substantial climate-associated population decline, and offers the opportunity to...
Capacity of two Sierra Nevada rivers for reintroduction of anadromous salmonids: Insights from a high-resolution view
David A. Boughton, Lee R. Harrison, Sara N. John, Rosealea M. Bond, Colin L. Nicol, Carl J. Legleiter, Ryan T. Richardson
2022, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society (151) 13-41
Historically, anadromous steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss and spring-run Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha used high-elevation rivers in the Sierra Nevada of California but were extirpated in the 20th century by construction of impassable dams. Plans to reintroduce the fish by opening migratory passage across the dams and reservoirs can only succeed if...
Crowding, climate, and the case for social distancing among trees
Tucker J. Furniss, Adrian Das, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Nathan L. Stephenson, James A. Lutz
2022, Ecological Applications (32)
In an emerging era of megadisturbance, bolstering forest resilience to wildfire, insects, and drought has become a central objective in many western forests. Climate has received considerable attention as a driver of these disturbances, but few studies have examined the complexities of climate–vegetation–disturbance interactions. Current strategies for creating resilient forests...
Both real-time and long-term environmental data perform well in predicting shorebird distributions in managed habitat
Erin Conlisk, Gregory Golet, Mark Reynolds, Blake Barbaree, Kristin Sesser, Kristin B. Byrd, Sam Veloz, Matthew E. Reiter
2022, Ecological Applications (32)
Highly mobile species, such as migratory birds, respond to seasonal and inter-annual variability in resource availability by moving to better habitats. Despite the recognized importance of resource thresholds, species distribution models typically rely on long-term average habitat conditions, mostly because large-extent, temporally-resolved, environmental data are difficult...
Velocity-porosity relations in carbonate and siliciclastic subduction zone input materials
Tamara Nicole Jeppson, Hiroko Kitajima
2022, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems (23)
The mechanical, physical, and frictional properties of incoming materials play an important role in subduction zone structure and slip behavior because these properties influence the strength of the accretionary wedge and megathrust plate boundary faults. Incoming sediment sections often show an increase in compressional wave speed (Vp) and a decrease...
Climate extremes as drivers of surface-water-quality trends in the United States
Karen R. Ryberg, Jeffrey G. Chanat
2022, Science of the Total Environment (809)
Surface-water quality can change in response to climate perturbations, such as changes in the frequency of heavy precipitation or droughts, through direct effects, such as dilution and concentration, and through physical processes, such as bank scour. Water quality might also change through indirect mechanisms,...
Estimating pelagic primary production in lakes: Comparison of 14C incubation and free-water O2 approaches
Noah R. Lottig, Joseph Phillips, Ryan D. Batt, Facundo Scordo, Tanner J. Williamson, Stephen R. Carpenter, Sudeep Chandra, Paul C. Hanson, Christopher T. Solomon, Michael J. Vanni, Jacob Aaron Zwart
2022, Limnology and Oceanography: Methods (20) 34-45
Historically, estimates of pelagic primary production in lake ecosystems were made by measuring the uptake of carbon-14 (14C)-labeled inorganic carbon in samples incubated under laboratory or in situ conditions. However, incubation approaches are increasingly being replaced by methods that analyze diel changes in high-frequency...
Geostatistical mapping of salinity conditioned on borehole logs, Montebello Oil Field, California
Neil C. Terry, Frederick Day-Lewis, Matthew K. Landon, Michael Land, Jennifer S. Stanton, John W. Lane
2022, Groundwater (60) 242-261
We present a geostatistics-based stochastic salinity estimation framework for the Montebello Oil Field that capitalizes on available total dissolved solids (TDS) data from groundwater samples as well as electrical resistivity (ER) data from borehole logging. Data from TDS samples (n = 4924) was coded into an indicator framework...
Warming conditions boost reproductive output for a northern gopher tortoise population
Elizabeth Ann Hunter, Kevin J. Loope, K. Kristina Drake, Kaitlyn Hanley, Douglas N. Jones Jr., Kevin T. Shoemaker, David C. Rostal
2022, Endangered Species Research (46) 215-226
The effects of climate change on at-risk species will depend on how life history processes respond to climate and whether the seasonal timing of local climate changes overlaps with species-specific windows of climate sensitivity. For long-lived, iteroparous species like gopher tortoises Gopherus polyphemus, climate likely has a greater influence on...
Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES): Open-source spatial modeling of cultural services
Benson C. Sherrouse, Darius J. Semmens, Zachary H. Ancona
2022, Environmental Modelling & Software (148) 1-16
Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) version 4.0 is a fully open-source, GIS-based tool designed to aid in the creation of quantitative, spatially explicit models of the nonmonetary values attributed to cultural ecosystem services, such as aesthetics and recreation, specifically to facilitate their incorporation into larger ecosystem service assessments. Newly...
Integrated tools for identifying optimal flow regimes and evaluating alternative minimum flows for recovering at-risk salmonids in a highly managed system
James T. Peterson, Jessica E. Pease, Luke Whitman, James White, Laurel E. Stratton Garvin, Stewart A. Rounds, J. Rose Wallick
2022, River Research and Applications (38) 293-308
Water resource managers are faced with difficult decisions on how to satisfy human water needs while maintaining or restoring riverine ecosystems. Decision sciences have developed approaches and tools that can be used to break down difficult water management decisions into their component parts. An essential aspect of these approaches is...
Final report: Understanding historical and predicting future lake temperatures in North and South Dakota
Jordan Read
2022, Report
Lakes, reservoirs, and ponds are central and integral features of the landscape of the North Central US. These water bodies provide aesthetic, cultural, and ecosystem services to surrounding wildlife and human communities. Lakes are warming, resulting in the loss of many native fish. In order to manage economically valuable fisheries...
Physics-guided machine learning from simulation data: An application in modeling lake and river systems
Xiaowei Jia, Yiqun Xie, Sheng Li, Shengyu Chen, Jacob Aaron Zwart, Jeffrey Michael Sadler, Alison P. Appling, Samantha K. Oliver, Jordan Read
2022, Conference Paper, IEEE International Conference on Data Mining
This paper proposes a new physics-guided machine learning approach that incorporates the scientific knowledge in physics-based models into machine learning models. Physics-based models are widely used to study dynamical systems in a variety of scientific and engineering problems. Although they are built based on general physical laws that govern the...
Data resources for NGA-subduction project
V. Contreras, S. Mazzoni, T. Kishida, S.K. Ahdi, Robert B. Darragh, R.R. Youngs, B.S.J. Chiou, N. Kuehn, Kathryn Wooddell, Y. Bozorgnia, Jonathan P. Stewart
2022, Extramural-Authored Publication Paper
A relational database was developed over a five-year period to support ground motion model (GMM) development for the Next Generation Attenuation-Subduction (NGA-Sub) project. The relational database has components that interact according to a database schema, including a source and path component used to describe attributes of seismic sources in global...
Supplemental habitat is reservoir dependent: Identifying optimal planting decision using Bayesian Decision Networks
D. M. Norris, M. E. Colvin, Leandro E. Miranda, M. A. Lashley
2022, Journal of Environmental Management (304)
Environmental management often requires making decisions despite system uncertainty. One such example is mudflat mediation in flood control reservoirs. Reservoir mudflats limit development of diverse fish assemblages due to the lack of structural habitat provided by plants. Seeding mudflats with agricultural plants may mimic floodplain wetlands once inundated and provide fish habitat and achieve...
The impact of 3D finite‐fault information on ground‐motion forecasting for earthquake early warning
Jessica R. Murray, Eric M. Thompson, Annemarie S. Baltay, Sarah E. Minson
2022, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (112) 779-802
We identify aspects of finite‐source parameterization that strongly affect the accuracy of estimated ground motion for earthquake early warning (EEW). EEW systems aim to alert users to impending shaking before it reaches them. The U.S. West Coast EEW system, ShakeAlert, currently uses two algorithms based...
Projecting the remaining habitat for the western spadefoot (Spea hammondii) in heavily urbanized southern California
Jonathan P. Rose, Brian J. Halstead, Robert H. Packard, Robert N. Fisher
2022, Global Ecology and Conservation (33)
Extensive urbanization in coastal southern California has reduced natural habitat in this biodiversity hotspot. To better conserve ecological communities, state and federal agencies, along with local jurisdictions and private stakeholders, developed regional conservation plans for southern California. Although many protected areas exist within this region, the patchwork nature of these...
Influence of seasonal extreme flows on Brook Trout recruitment
John A. Sweka, Tyler Wagner
2022, North American Journal of Fisheries Management (151) 231-244
Populations of Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis exhibit large variation in annual recruitment (abundance of young of the year [age 0]), which is likely a product of density-dependent and density-independent factors. Quantifying the importance of each of these mechanisms in regulating Brook Trout recruitment would be valuable to managers that are responsible for...
Review of ESA SYMP 7: A dynamic perspective on ecosystem restoration–establishing temporal connectivity at the intersection between paleoecology and restoration ecology
Rachel Reid, Jenny McGuire, Jens-Christiane Svenning, G. Lynn Wingard, David Moreno-Mateos
2022, Bulletin Ecological Society of America (103)
Landscape connectivity is vital not only spatially, but also temporally; as ecosystems change, it is important to be aware of past, present, and future variables that may impact ecosystem function and biodiversity. As climate and environments continue to change, choosing appropriate restoration targets is becoming more challenging. By considering the...
Patterns of post-fire invasion of semiarid shrub-steppe reveals a diversity of invasion niches within an exotic annual grass community
Cara Applestein, Matthew J. Germino
2022, Biological Invasions (24) 741-759
Disturbances such as fire provide an opportunity for invasive plant species to exploit newly created niche space. Whether initial invaders facilitate, compete with, or do not affect later invaders is important to determine in communities affected by multiple invaders. This analysis focuses on the newer invaders Taeniatherum caput-medusae (medusahead) and Ventenata dubia (ventenata) in...
Loggerhead marine turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting at smaller sizes than expected in the Gulf of Mexico: Implications for turtle behavior, population dynamics, and conservation
Allison Benscoter, Brian J. Smith, Kristen Hart
2022, Conservation Science and Practice (4)
Estimates of parameters that affect population dynamics, including the size at which individuals reproduce, are crucial for efforts aimed at understanding how imperiled species may recover from the numerous threats they face. In this study, we observed loggerhead marine turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting at three sites in the Gulf of...
Calcareous plankton biostratigraphic fidelity and species richness during the last 10 m.y. of the Cretaceous at Blake Plateau, subtropical North Atlantic
Brian T. Huber, Nataliya A. Tur, Jean Self-Trail, Kenneth G. MacLeod
2022, Cretaceous Research (131)
Species distributions of well-preserved and diverse assemblages of planktonic foraminifera and calcareous nannofossils spanning the last 10 m.y. of the Cretaceous (middle Campanian through Maastrichtian) are analyzed from samples taken across a 1400 m depth transect at Blake Nose in the western subtropical North Atlantic (Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1049,...
Factors Affecting Groundwater Quality Used for Domestic Supply in Marcellus Shale Region of North-Central and North-East Pennsylvania, USA
Charles A. Cravotta III, Lisa A. Senior, Matthew D. Conlon
2022, Applied Geochemistry (137)
Factors affecting groundwater quality used for domestic supply within the Marcellus Shale footprint in north-central and north-east Pennsylvania are identified using a combination of spatial, statistical, and geochemical modeling. Untreated groundwater, sampled during 2011–2017 from 472 domestic wells within the study...
A graphical causal model for resolving species identity effects and biodiversity–ecosystem function correlations: Reply
Donald Schoolmaster, Chad R Zirbel, James P. Cronin
2022, Ecology (103)
No abstract available....
