Figures

Figure 1. Location of four study-area watersheds, Washington and Oregon.

Figure 2. U.S. Geological Survey National Land Cover Dataset Land Use-Land Cover composition in each of the four study-area watersheds, Oregon and Washington, 2011.

Figure 3. Terrine or geologic group composition in each of the four study-area watersheds, based on Oregon Geologic Data Compilation (Ma and others, 2009).

Figure 4. Examples of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program scenario outputs.

Figure 5. Absolute change in mean maximum daily temperatures from reference period (1971–1995) to future period (2041–2065) by month, in the Yaquina Bay watershed, Oregon.

Figure 6. Percent change in mean total daily precipitation from reference period (1971–1995) to future period (2041–2065) by month, Yaquina Bay watershed, Oregon.

Figure 7. Processes modeled by Precipitation Runoff Modeling System.

Figure 8. Calibration data for Coquille River watershed, Oregon.

Figure 9. Calibration data for Yaquina Bay watershed, Oregon.

Figure 10. Calibration data for Willapa Bay watershed, Washington.

Figure 11. Calibration data for Coos Bay South Slough watershed, Oregon.

Figure 12. Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) for Coos Bay South Slough watershed, Oregon.

Figure 13. Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) for Coquille River watershed, Oregon.

Figure 14. Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) for Willapa Bay watershed, Washington.

Figure 15. Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) for Yaquina Bay watershed, Oregon.

Figure 16. Mean monthly performance of calibrated models.

Figure 17. Monthly hydrograph of Coos Bay calibration sub-watershed, Oregon, October 1982–September 1991.

Figure 18. Monthly hydrograph of Coquille River calibration sub-watershed, Oregon, October 1982–September 1991.

Figure 19.Monthly hydrograph of Willapa Bay calibration sub-watershed, Washington, October 1982–September 1991.

Figure 20. Monthly hydrograph of Yaquina Bay calibration sub-watershed, Oregon, October 1982–September 1991.

Figure 21. Percent change in mean monthly percent flow from reference period (1971–1995) to future period (2041–2065), Coos Bay South Slough watershed, Oregon.

Figure 22. Percent change in mean monthly percent flow from reference period (1971–1995) to future period (2041–2065), Coquille River watershed, Oregon.

Figure 23. Percent change in mean monthly percent flow from reference period (1971–1995) to future period (2041–2065), Willapa Bay watershed, Washington.

Figure 24. Percent change in mean monthly percent flow from reference period (1971–1995) to future period (2041–2065), Yaquina Bay watershed, Oregon.

Figure 25. Percent change in mean monthly percent flow from reference period (1971–1995) to future period (2041–2065), averaged across all four study-area watersheds.

Figure 26. Climate scenario ensemble mean change in mean monthly percent flow from reference point (1971–1995) to future period (2041–2065), by study-area watershed.

Figure 27. Graph showing percent change in monthly coefficient of variation (CV) from reference period (1971–1995) to future period (2041–2065), averaged across all four study-area watersheds.

Figure 28. Graph showing climate scenario ensemble mean change in monthly coefficient of variation (CV) from reference period (1971–1995) to future period (2041–2065), by study-area watershed.

Figure 29. Graph showing percent change in flow in top 5 percent of days from reference period (1971–1995) to future period (2041–2065).

Figure 30. Graph showing percent change in 7-day low flow from reference period (1971–1995) to future period (2041–2065).

Figure 31. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System parameter uncertainty for Coos Bay calibration sub-watershed, Oregon. (a) is a linear scale, and (b) is a logarithmic scale.

Figure 32. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System parameter uncertainty for Coquille River calibration sub-watershed, Oregon. (a) is a linear scale, and (b) is a logarithmic scale.

Figure 33. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System parameter uncertainty for Willapa Bay calibration sub-watershed, Washington. (a) is a linear scale, and (b) is a logarithmic scale.

Figure 34. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System parameter uncertainty for Yaquina Bay calibration sub-watershed, Oregon. (a) is a linear scale, and (b) is a logarithmic scale.

Figure 35. Box-and-whisker plots showing changes in top 5 percent high flow, 7-day low flow, and coefficient of variation for four study areas. The lines in the middle of boxes denote the median values, and the upper and lower boundaries of the boxes show the 25^th and 75^th percentiles, respectively. The red diamond symbol indicates outliers. A is for RCM3-CGCM, B is for HRM3-HADCM3, C is for CRCM-CGCM3, and D is for CRCM-CCSM.

Figure 36. Box-and-whisker plots showing changes in monthly runoff for four study areas. The lines in the middle of boxes denote the median values, and the upper and lower boundaries of the boxes show the 25^th and 75^th percentiles, respectively. The red diamond symbol indicates outliers. A is for RCM3-CGCM, B is for HRM3-HADCM3, C is for CRCM-CGCM3, and D is for CRCM-CCSM.

First posted February 28, 2013